# Brisbane Lions v Collingwood — AFL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 53 – 105 Collingwood

_Collingwood put Brisbane Lions to the sword._

Half time: 32 – 51 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 78% / Collingwood 22% · Gabba · Thu, 17 Apr, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Oscar McInerney (13' ×2 1st), Eric Hipwood (20' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Cam Rayner (38' ×2), Sam Day (48') · Collingwood: Daniel McStay (15' ×2), Brody Mihocek (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Josh Daicos (26'), Will Hoskin-Elliott (46'), Beau McCreery (56'), Ned Long (62'), Nick Daicos (74'), Jamie Elliott (80' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jordan de Goey (65' ×2), Bobby Hill (75' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 78% | Lost |
| Collingwood | 22% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 10.9 predicted → 52 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Brisbane Lions 53–105 Collingwood in AFL Round 6 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty-seven hit-outs to eighteen. That's the number that explains Collingwood's 105-53 demolition of Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, and it starts in the ruck, well before it ever reaches the scoreboard.

Win that many taps and you win first use of the football. Collingwood turned that dominance into 36 clearances to Brisbane's 26, and from there the arithmetic is simple: more clearances, more entries forward, 51 inside 50s to Brisbane's 37. Everything downstream of the ruck contest followed the same pattern.

The quarter-by-quarter score shows just how one-sided it stayed. Collingwood led 26-16 at the first break, pushed it out to 51-32 by half time, then 80-38 at three-quarter time. Brisbane never found a passage to arrest it, and the last term only made things worse, Collingwood adding to a margin that finished at 52 points.

Oddly, Brisbane won plenty of the raw counting stats. They had more marks, 116 to 86, were within six disposals overall (327 to 333), and their disposal efficiency at 75.7% wasn't far off Collingwood's 77.5%. None of it mattered, because Brisbane so rarely had first use of the ball. Winning the ball back is different to winning it first.

That result lines up almost exactly with the pre-match positional ratings. Collingwood went in rated stronger in every area that governs first use: ruck 1057 to 937, midfield 987 to 942, forwards 1069 to 943.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 16 | 16 | 6 | 15 | 53 |
| Collingwood | 26 | 25 | 29 | 25 | 105 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 327 | Disposals | **333** |
| 99 | Contested poss. | **100** |
| 26 | Clearances | **36** |
| 37 | Inside 50s | **51** |
| **116** | Marks | 86 |
| 12 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| 28 | Tackles | **33** |
| 18 | Hit-outs | **37** |
| 45 | Intercepts | **46** |
| 75.7% | Disposal eff. | **77.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

Collingwood defied the model's 78% prediction for Brisbane Lions, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.9 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 158 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 182. Collingwood led 32–51 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 52. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.54 (edge +13.3%) — model probability 78.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 11 · Predicted total: 182

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 49 · 38 | 51 · 29 |
| Goal Assists | 4.8/g | 6.2/g |
| Disposals | 81/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 19/g | 23/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9/g | 10.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 64.4% | 68.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 12 | 5 · 17 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 169/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 26.6/g | 19.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.2/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 65.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 9 | 5 · 3 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 118/g | 117/g |
| Inside 50s | 13/g | 13.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.2% | 79.3% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Defenders 1.24/g (lg 1.32) -6% · Forwards 4.07/g (lg 4.45) -9% · Key Forwards 3.28/g (lg 3.61) -9%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.33/g (lg 4.45) -3% · Key Forwards 3.4/g (lg 3.61) -6% · Midfielders 2.16/g (lg 2.38) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 12 in 5g | 17/10g (1·1·1·2·0·4·1·1·3·3) | 12/10g | 67/73g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 11 in 5g | 18/10g (1·2·0·2·2·1·3·1·2·4) | 0/1g | 15/10g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 75% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 10 in 5g | 14/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·2·1·1·5) | 13/11g | 124/91g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 72' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 7 in 5g | 17/10g (0·2·1·3·4·1·3·0·1·2) | 4/10g | 28/54g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 4 in 3g | 16/10g (1·1·3·2·2·2·1·1·3·0) | 29/15g | 159/81g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 75% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 3 in 5g | 9/10g (0·3·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 12/10g | 69/72g | 54% | — | 🏉 38' 83' |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 14/18g | 130/143g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/2g | 6/17g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 9/13g | 63/93g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/12g | 40/84g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 8/22g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 7/12g | 4/31g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 5/28g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 11/17g | 36/73g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 37/81g | 30% | — | 🏉 13' 68' |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 4/107g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jack Payne | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/34g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Tunstill | MID | no games | 1/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/35g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 23/103g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Day | KF | 0 in 4g | 10/10g (0·1·3·3·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 8/7g | 8/14g | 48% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Sam Marshall | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | 8 in 5g | 15/10g (2·1·2·0·2·1·2·2·0·3) | 12/7g | 8/4g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' 88' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 8 in 4g | 19/10g (3·3·0·2·2·1·2·3·0·3) | 20/9g | 19/11g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 86' |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 8 in 5g | 12/10g (1·1·1·0·1·2·2·1·0·3) | 17/11g | 14/14g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' 91' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 5 in 5g | 13/10g (1·3·1·1·2·0·3·1·0·1) | 4/3g | 61/85g | 74% | — | 🏉 15' 42' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 4/7g | 2/3g | 44% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/13g | 0/14g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 7/16g | 5/12g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 2 in 2g | 10/10g (0·0·2·2·0·1·1·2·0·2) | 22/12g | 20/11g | 58% | — | 🏉 65' 81' |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/15g | 9/25g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 1 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 2/3g | 58% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 2/5g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (0·1·0·2·2·0·1·1·0·1) | 4/15g | 6/15g | 54% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 0 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 2/7g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 4/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/9g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/16g | 4/7g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 4/12g | 24% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 12/11g | 14/11g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 2/16g | 26% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 29.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 25 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 27.5 | $1.78 | 63% | 20 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $2.05 | 62% | 13 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 20 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 25.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 21 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 20.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 18 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 19.5 | $1.96 | 54% | 15 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 18.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 19 ✗ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 29.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 38 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos | 23.5 | $2.00 | 52% | 30 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.92 | 64% | 26 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 22.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 21 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 19.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 20 ✗ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.85 | 96% | 21 ✗ |
| Patrick Lipinski ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.93 | 70% | 18 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron | 16.5 | $1.50 | 58% | 14 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)