AI Game Review
Collingwood defied the model's 78% prediction for Brisbane Lions, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.9 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 158 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 182. Collingwood led 32–51 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 52. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
78%
Collingwood
22%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Collingwood. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Collingwood carry a 41-point ELO rating advantage (1532 vs 1491). The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 10.9 points with a combined total of 182.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.54
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.3%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.3%
Total Points
Over 173.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | W W L L L | 94.0 |
Collingwood | W W L L L | 79.6 |
Avg Conceded
68.6
Brisbane Lions
84.7
Collingwood
Avg Margin
11.0
Brisbane Lions
-6.9
Collingwood
Disposals
352.8
Brisbane Lions
369.5
Collingwood
Inside 50s
45.4
Brisbane Lions
46.3
Collingwood
ELO–Market Disagreement
Collingwood hold the ELO advantage (1532 vs 1491), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.54).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
78%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 182 · Line: +10.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.63
Team Effectiveness
-0.01
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.