# Geelong Cats v Hawthorn — AFL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 86 – 79 Hawthorn

_Geelong Cats claw past a gallant Hawthorn._

Half time: 50 – 40 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 37% / Hawthorn 63% · MCG · Mon, 21 Apr, 03:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Oliver Dempsey (6' ×2 1st), Patrick Dangerfield (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Rhys Stanley (24'), Jeremy Cameron (38' Tipped ⚡), Mark Blicavs (70'), Final quarter (30m 41s)Patrick Dangerfield (67'), Shaun Mannagh (89') · Hawthorn: Blake Hardwick (8'), Jack Gunston (10' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (35' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mabior Chol (55' ×3 Tipped ⚡), James Sicily (72'), Connor Macdonald (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 63% | Lost |
| Geelong Cats | 37% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 23.8 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 86–79 Hawthorn in AFL Round 6 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Geelong led by ten at the main break and by ten again approaching the final change, only to watch Hawthorn claw four points back in the third quarter and turn a comfortable margin into a genuine contest. That period alone, Hawthorn 26 to Geelong 22, dragged the gap down to six points at the final change. It was the moment this game had a pulse. Geelong just refused to let it beat properly, adding 14 in the last term to Hawthorn's 13 and getting home 86 to 79 at the MCG.

Look at the stat sheet and you'd assume Hawthorn won by plenty. They out-disposed Geelong 374 to 310, ran at 76.2% efficiency to Geelong's 68.8%, doubled them up almost in the ruck with 52 hit-outs to 36, and laid 83 tackles to 62. They went inside 50 nine more times and took three more marks inside the arc. By most conventional measures, this was Hawthorn's game to lose.

They found a way to lose it anyway. Geelong won the intercept count 58 to 53, and that single column tells you more about the result than anything else on the sheet. Hawthorn could move the ball, mark it and press forward all day, but Geelong kept turning that pressure back into its own use, and in a low-margin arm-wrestle that's often the number that counts more than territory or possession.

The positional ratings framed this as a mismatch in Hawthorn's favour. Their forward line rated 1121 to Geelong's 1006, their midfield edged it 1076 to 1058, and their ruck was rated stronger too, 1066 to 1042, which the hit-out count backed up in full. The one area Geelong held an edge was defence, 1065 to 1011. On the day, that was the difference that mattered.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 29 | 21 | 22 | 14 | 86 |
| Hawthorn | 18 | 22 | 26 | 13 | 79 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| 310 | Disposals | **374** |
| 118 | Contested poss. | **119** |
| 33 | Clearances | **34** |
| 46 | Inside 50s | **55** |
| 78 | Marks | **91** |
| 15 | Marks inside 50 | **18** |
| 62 | Tackles | **83** |
| 36 | Hit-outs | **52** |
| **58** | Intercepts | 53 |
| 68.8% | Disposal eff. | **76.2%** |

**Model Report Card**

Geelong Cats defied the model's 63% prediction for Hawthorn, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 23.8 but the actual margin was 7 points. Total score prediction of 160 was close to the actual 165, within 5 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.93 (edge +11.4%) — model probability 63.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 24 · Predicted total: 160

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 49 · 33 | 37 · 35 |
| Goal Assists | 5.6/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 84/g |
| Inside 50s | 22/g | 14.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.2/g | 7.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.2% | 68.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 22 · 15 | 18 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 149/g |
| Inside 50s | 18/g | 23.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.7% | 70.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 8 | 12 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposals | 118/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.4/g | 15.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.6% | 78.8% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.6/g (lg 1.32) +21% · Key Forwards 3.74/g (lg 3.61) +4% · Midfielders 2.4/g (lg 2.38) +1%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Forwards 4.55/g (lg 4.45) +2% · Key Forwards 3.62/g (lg 3.61) +0% · Rucks 0.49/g (lg 0.51) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 11 in 5g | 30/10g (1·3·9·4·2·4·1·1·1·4) | 35/13g | 105/38g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 11 in 5g | 15/10g (1·1·1·0·1·2·0·2·3·4) | 16/18g | 46/59g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 34' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 7 in 5g | 11/10g (1·1·1·0·1·2·2·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 6/8g | 62% | — | 🏉 6' 89' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 7 in 5g | 15/10g (0·2·2·4·0·3·2·0·2·0) | 8/5g | 36/20g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 5 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 7/4g | 21/25g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 5 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 3/5g | 16/24g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 5 in 5g | 16/10g (1·1·4·1·4·3·0·1·0·1) | 9/5g | 46/27g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 74% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $17.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 5 in 5g | 12/10g (2·1·2·2·0·1·2·0·1·1) | 2/1g | 3/4g | 77% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 0/6g | 3/14g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 5/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 6/22g | 18/72g | 34% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 2/18g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ted Clohesy | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/7g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 1 in 5g | 8/10g (1·0·1·3·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 22/32g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Knevitt | FWD | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 9/13g | 22/47g | 18% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 1 in 2g | 14/10g (0·2·2·2·2·1·3·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/2g | 75% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 3/36g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 4/30g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/33g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/46g | 6% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 10 in 3g | 24/10g (0·4·3·5·1·1·0·2·2·6) | 37/22g | 206/110g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' 52' 84' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 7 in 5g | 14/10g (0·2·4·0·1·2·3·1·1·0) | 7/5g | 45/43g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 7 in 5g | 13/10g (1·1·3·0·1·1·2·3·0·1) | 5/4g | 27/24g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' 65' 94' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 6 in 5g | 19/10g (0·3·3·4·3·0·3·2·1·0) | 1/2g | 18/10g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' 67' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 5 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·1·0) | 0/12g | 10/68g | 24% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 5 in 5g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·2) | 0/4g | 5/16g | 34% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·1·0·2) | 2/10g | 29/70g | 28% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 11/32g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 2 in 3g | 10/10g (2·1·0·0·3·2·0·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 21/29g | 62% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 7/19g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 6/42g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 9/43g | 22% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/9g | 20/50g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/20g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 10/27g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Luke Breust | FWD | 1 in 2g | 13/10g (4·2·1·2·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 35/24g | 247/129g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/17g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 6/15g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/19g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/40g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 14/58g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/15g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.83 | 82% | 28 ✓ |
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 20 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.89 | 64% | 15 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 16 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie | 20.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 13 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers | 20.5 | $1.81 | 65% | 11 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 18.5 | $1.70 | 58% | 19 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 17.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 24 ✗ |
| Patrick Dangerfield | 16.5 | $1.93 | 35% | 15 ✓ |
| Jack Bowes | 16.5 | $1.83 | 45% | 12 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 15.5 | $1.88 | 49% | 17 ✗ |
| Mitch Knevitt ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 87% | 7 ✓ |
| Jeremy Cameron | 15.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 14 ✓ |
| Connor O'Sullivan | 14.5 | $1.89 | 45% | 9 ✓ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 26.5 | $1.79 | 56% | 28 ✗ |
| James Worpel | 22.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 22 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 21.5 | $1.97 | 53% | 29 ✗ |
| Cam Mackenzie ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 14 ✓ |
| Dylan Moore ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.95 | 66% | 9 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 19.5 | $1.94 | 47% | 14 ✓ |
| James Sicily | 19.5 | $1.87 | 43% | 19 ✓ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 16 ✓ |
| Conor Nash | 17.5 | $1.88 | 56% | 12 ✓ |
| Josh Battle | 16.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 14 ✓ |
| Jack Scrimshaw | 16.5 | $1.99 | 36% | 22 ✗ |
| Connor Macdonald | 16.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 14 ✓ |
| Josh Weddle | 15.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 19 ✗ |
| Nick Watson | 13.5 | $1.83 | 63% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)