Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
9%
Fremantle
91%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 91%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO, but Fremantle counter with Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO which tips the scales. Recent form favours Fremantle with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 41.1 points with a combined total of 161.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.35
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.6%
Line / Spread
Fremantle +19.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.6%
Total Points
Under 166.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | W L L L L | 108.6 |
Fremantle | W W L L L | 80.0 |
Avg Conceded
75.2
Melbourne
81.8
Fremantle
Avg Margin
2.5
Melbourne
23.1
Fremantle
Disposals
365.3
Melbourne
376.8
Fremantle
Inside 50s
47.7
Melbourne
52.5
Fremantle
ELO–Market Disagreement
Melbourne hold the ELO advantage (1552 vs 1547), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.35).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
91%
Fremantle predicted to win by 41 points
Predicted total: 161 · Line: -41.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.26
Team Effectiveness
+0.41
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
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AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.