# Melbourne v Fremantle — AFL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Melbourne 107 – 97 Fremantle

_Melbourne hold off a gallant Fremantle._

Half time: 74 – 53 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Melbourne 9% / Fremantle 91% · MCG · Sat, 19 Apr, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Melbourne: Kysaiah Pickett (5' ×5 1st Tipped ⚡), Harry Petty (7' ×4), Trent Rivers (9'), Christian Petracca (25' Tipped ⚡), Jack Viney (32'), Kade Chandler (39'), Harvey Langford (89' ×2) · Fremantle: Shai Bolton (11' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Murphy Reid (13' Tipped ⚡), Josh Treacy (30' Tipped ⚡), Sean Darcy (37' ×2), Jye Amiss (45' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jeremy Sharp (47'), Oscar McDonald (71'), Isaiah Dudley (95')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 91% | Lost |
| Melbourne | 9% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 41.1 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Melbourne 107–97 Fremantle in AFL Round 6 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Melbourne played the volume game and Fremantle tried to make every possession count. Only one of those approaches actually won the football.

The final read was 107 to 97, Melbourne at the MCG, and the shape of it was set early. Melbourne led 37-26 at the first change, stretched it to 74-53 by half time and were up 95-76 at the last break before Fremantle's late push got the margin back to single figures. A tight last quarter, but the scoreboard damage was already done.

Melbourne simply had the ball more. 392 disposals to 326, 134 contested possessions to 116, 38 clearances to 33. That's a side that wanted it in its hands constantly rather than picking its moments, and it showed in the tackle count too, 59 to 46, relentless pressure whenever Fremantle did get hold of it. The ruck battle told the same story: Melbourne's 37 hit-outs to 25 gave their midfield first use nearly every centre bounce and stoppage.

Fremantle's game was built on precision rather than volume, and the numbers back that up. They were the more efficient side with ball in hand, 80.1% disposal efficiency to Melbourne's 78.6%, and once they got it forward they made it count, 12 marks inside 50 to Melbourne's 7. They also won the intercept count, 59 to 53. None of it was enough to offset getting out-worked at the source. Melbourne went inside 50 56 times to 49, and even with Fremantle cleaner in that forward stretch, more entries eventually wins out.

The ladder of ratings going in had Fremantle rated stronger everywhere bar the ruck: forwards 1105 to 1101, defence 1004 to 1028 in Melbourne's favour actually, midfield 998 to Melbourne's 1011, ruck 1089 to Melbourne's 1100. So Melbourne actually held the edge in three of the four positional battles on paper. Recent form painted a rosier picture for Fremantle regardless, with three wins from their last five to Melbourne's one, and an average winning margin of 23 points compared to Melbourne's 2.5. On the day, none of that form curve mattered once Melbourne got hold of the contested ball and never let go.

Alphr's model had Fremantle as 91% favourites, expected to win by 41.1 points in a game projected at 161 total points. Every part of that read went the other way. Melbourne won by 10, and the two sides combined for 204 points, 43 more than tipped. All three picks missed. A rough one for the model, and a reminder that ratings on paper don't always survive first contact with a side that just wants the ball more than the other bloke.

Melbourne's control of possession, stoppages and pressure was the story here, not any individual passage of brilliance. Fremantle were sharper with what they had, just didn't have enough of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 37 | 37 | 21 | 12 | 107 |
| Fremantle | 26 | 27 | 23 | 21 | 97 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Melbourne | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| **392** | Disposals | 326 |
| **134** | Contested poss. | 116 |
| **38** | Clearances | 33 |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 49 |
| **110** | Marks | 80 |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| **59** | Tackles | 46 |
| **37** | Hit-outs | 25 |
| 53 | Intercepts | **59** |
| 78.6% | Disposal eff. | **80.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Melbourne defied the model's 91% prediction for Fremantle, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 41.1 but the actual margin was 10 points. The game's 204 points came in 43 points higher than the predicted 161. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.35 (edge +16.6%) — model probability 90.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +19.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 41 · Predicted total: 161

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Melbourne | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 26 · 51 | 45 · 42 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 81/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.8/g | 13.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.2/g | 10/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.8% | 67.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Melbourne | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 15 | 14 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 5.6/g |
| Disposals | 143/g | 162/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.2/g | 31.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.5% | 70.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Melbourne | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 9 | 6 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 119/g | 116/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.6/g | 10/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78% | 82.9% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.45/g (lg 2.37) +3% · Key Forwards 3.53/g (lg 3.61) -2% · Forwards 4.12/g (lg 4.46) -8%
**Who scores on Melbourne** — Rucks 0.7/g (lg 0.51) +37% · Defenders 1.38/g (lg 1.32) +5% · Midfielders 2.32/g (lg 2.37) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 6 in 5g | 15/10g (5·1·2·1·0·2·1·1·2·0) | 6/10g | 90/97g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·3·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 30/37g | 48% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 2 in 2g | 12/10g (1·3·1·0·0·0·4·1·1·1) | 1/2g | 11/11g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 56% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/6g | 25/63g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | — | 🏉 89' 89' |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/35g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 2 in 2g | 15/10g (2·2·0·1·2·4·0·2·0·2) | 7/7g | 77/53g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 41' 42' 58' 78' |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 18/50g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/13g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 22/97g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 15/45g | 34% | — | 🏉 7' 17' 66' 97' |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (2·1·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 84/82g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 29/46g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 15/93g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jack Viney | MID | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 33/114g | 22% | — | 🏉 32' |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 4/6g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 59/115g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tom Fullarton | KF | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Tom McDonald | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/14g | 78/124g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/54g | 6% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 17 in 5g | 32/10g (5·1·3·3·3·1·4·3·3·6) | 8/3g | 15/6g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 9 in 5g | 18/10g (3·1·1·3·1·2·0·1·3·3) | 8/6g | 7/6g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 83% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 6 in 5g | 14/10g (1·4·1·1·1·0·1·4·1·0) | 11/3g | 13/6g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' 84' 86' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 6 in 5g | 6/5g (4·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 4 in 4g | 12/10g (1·0·1·2·3·1·0·0·2·2) | 5/6g | 88/69g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 55' 84' |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 5/8g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (2·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 6/13g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 2 in 1g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2) | 1/6g | 4/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/12g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 3/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 1 in 5g | 7/10g (1·0·3·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 1/8g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 32% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 3/15g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 18/47g | 18% | — | — |
| – | James Aish | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 13/46g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Joshua Draper | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/40g | 6% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 3/9g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 5/8g | 28% | — | 🏉 37' 96' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | 26.5 | $1.89 | 63% | 25 ✓ |
| Christian Petracca | 23.5 | $1.82 | 62% | 25 ✗ |
| Jake Bowey ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 29 ✗ |
| Christian Salem | 21.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 23 ✗ |
| Trent Rivers | 20.5 | $1.86 | 61% | 26 ✗ |
| Ed Langdon | 20.5 | $1.86 | 43% | 22 ✗ |
| Jack Viney | 19.5 | $1.98 | 48% | 25 ✗ |
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.79 | 88% | 24 ✗ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | 31.5 | $1.94 | 58% | 27 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 30.5 | $1.93 | 45% | 33 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark | 25.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 22 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 23.5 | $1.81 | 50% | 17 ✓ |
| Hayden Young | 22.5 | $1.86 | 48% | 25 ✗ |
| Jaeger O'Meara | 20.5 | $1.87 | 40% | 15 ✓ |
| Jeremy Sharp | 19.5 | $1.80 | 52% | 18 ✓ |
| Matthew Johnson | 16.5 | $1.86 | 40% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)