# AFL Round 6 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 6 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 6 at a glance
- 9 matches · 13W–14L on 27 settled picks (48% strike rate) · best value +28.5% edge

## Round 6 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne v Fremantle | Fremantle @ $1.35 | Fremantle 91% | LOST |
| Adelaide Crows v GWS GIANTS | GWS GIANTS @ $2.62 | GWS GIANTS 52% | LOST |
| Brisbane Lions v Collingwood | Brisbane Lions @ $1.54 | Brisbane Lions 78% | LOST |
| West Coast Eagles v Essendon | Essendon @ $1.33 | Essendon 82% | WON |
| Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide | Sydney Swans @ $1.56 | Sydney Swans 63% | LOST |
| North Melbourne v Carlton | Carlton @ $1.40 | Carlton 61% | WON |
| Western Bulldogs v St Kilda | Western Bulldogs @ $1.56 | Western Bulldogs 93% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Hawthorn | Hawthorn @ $1.93 | Hawthorn 63% | LOST |
| Richmond v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.08 | Gold Coast SUNS 87% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Melbourne v Fremantle
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 6
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 9.4% / Fremantle 90.6%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.35 (edge +16.6%) — model probability 90.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +19.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 41 · Predicted total: 161
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r6-melbourne-v-fremantle

### Adelaide Crows v GWS GIANTS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 6
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 48.1% / GWS GIANTS 51.9%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $2.62 (edge +13.7%) — model probability 51.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 9 · Predicted total: 155
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r6-adelaide-crows-v-gws-giants

### Brisbane Lions v Collingwood
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Gabba · Round 6
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 78.2% / Collingwood 21.8%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.54 (edge +13.3%) — model probability 78.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 11 · Predicted total: 182
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r6-brisbane-lions-v-collingwood

### West Coast Eagles v Essendon
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 6
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 17.8% / Essendon 82.2%
- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $1.33 (edge +7.0%) — model probability 82.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +21.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 17 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r6-west-coast-eagles-v-essendon

### Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · SCG · Round 6
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 62.6% / Port Adelaide 37.4%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.56 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 62.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 8 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r6-sydney-swans-v-port-adelaide

### North Melbourne v Carlton
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 6
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 38.7% / Carlton 61.3%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.40 (edge -10.1%) — model probability 61.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +17.5 @ $1.91 (edge -10.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 21 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r6-north-melbourne-v-carlton

### Western Bulldogs v St Kilda
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 6
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 92.6% / St Kilda 7.4%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.56 (edge +28.5%) — model probability 92.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +28.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 47 · Predicted total: 194
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r6-western-bulldogs-v-st-kilda

### Geelong Cats v Hawthorn
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 6
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 36.8% / Hawthorn 63.2%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.93 (edge +11.4%) — model probability 63.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 24 · Predicted total: 160
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r6-geelong-cats-v-hawthorn

### Richmond v Gold Coast SUNS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 6
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 13.2% / Gold Coast SUNS 86.8%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.08 (edge -5.8%) — model probability 86.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +43.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 184.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 16 · Predicted total: 166
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r6-richmond-v-gold-coast-suns

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/5 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/5.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/7 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/7.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/6
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Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC