# North Melbourne v Carlton — AFL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 71 – 153 Carlton

_Carlton demolish North Melbourne._

Half time: 39 – 59 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 39% / Carlton 61% · Marvel Stadium · Fri, 18 Apr, 03:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Paul Curtis (3' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Cameron Zurhaar (53' Tipped ⚡), Luke Parker (61' ×2 Tipped ⚡), George Wardlaw (95'), Final quarter (38m 9s)Zane Duursma (64'), Jacob Konstanty (84'), Tom Powell (101') · Carlton: Charlie Curnow (4' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Corey Durdin (10' ×2), Patrick Cripps (24'), Lewis Young (26'), Zac Williams (27' ×4), Tom De Koning (30'), Blake Acres (49'), Will White (73' ×3 Tipped ⚡), George Hewett (77'), Jesse Motlop (73' ×3), Cooper Lord (87' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 61% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 21.2 predicted → 82 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

North Melbourne 71–153 Carlton in AFL Round 6 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr had Carlton winning this by 21.2 points. Carlton won it by 82. That's the kind of miss you can't dress up, even though the model picked the right team at 61% and went 2 from 3 on the match overall.

Final score: North Melbourne 71, Carlton 153, at Marvel Stadium. Not close, and it wasn't close early either. Carlton led 45 to 14 at quarter time, which already had the margin blowing past what anyone predicted. By half time it was 59 to 39. Three-quarter time had Carlton up 96 to 46, exactly a 50-point lead, and from there they just kept adding to it rather than easing off.

The pre-match numbers said this gap was coming, even if the model undersold the size of it. Carlton went in rated stronger everywhere: midfield 1068 to 900, forwards 1064 to 924, defence 1004 to 943, ruck 1018 to 996. Every one of those edges showed up in the stat sheet. Carlton won clearances 46 to 38, the sort of midfield dominance you'd expect from a 168-point rating gap in that department.

Inside 50 is where the game really got away from North Melbourne. Carlton went forward 64 times to 39, and once they got there they made it count, with 15 marks inside 50 against North Melbourne's 5. That's not just more entries, that's cleaner, more controlled entries. North Melbourne had one square-up in the ruck battle, winning hit-outs 48 to 32, but it barely mattered when the ball spent so little time in their forward half to begin with.

Tackle numbers tell the other side of it. Carlton laid 83 tackles to North Melbourne's 56, which lines up with form heading in: Carlton averaging 10.8 points better than opponents across their last five, North Melbourne averaging 9.1 points worse. One side had been winning contests all year, the other had been leaking them, and Marvel Stadium just confirmed the trend at scale. Carlton's 63 intercepts to 52 rounded out a defensive performance that gave North Melbourne almost nothing easy.

North Melbourne weren't disgraced on the disposal count, actually edging it 350 to 369 isn't right, Carlton had more possessions and led disposal efficiency was near identical, 73.1% to 72.9%. So it wasn't a case of North Melbourne fumbling the ball around. They just couldn't turn what they had into anything at the other end, and once Carlton got clear in the third term it became a percentage exercise for both sides.

The 224 total points landed 60 above the predicted 164, and Carlton comfortably covered a 17.5-point line. As a head-to-head read, the model's instinct was sound. As a margin read, it wasn't in the same postcode. Form lines pointed this way, the positional ratings pointed this way, and the only thing left unaccounted for was just how far Carlton were prepared to push it once the game was theirs.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 14 | 25 | 7 | 25 | 71 |
| Carlton | 45 | 14 | 37 | 57 | 153 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 350 | Disposals | **369** |
| 132 | Contested poss. | **151** |
| 38 | Clearances | **46** |
| 39 | Inside 50s | **64** |
| 58 | Marks | **85** |
| 5 | Marks inside 50 | **15** |
| 56 | Tackles | **83** |
| **48** | Hit-outs | 32 |
| 52 | Intercepts | **63** |
| **73.1%** | Disposal eff. | 72.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 21.2 but the actual margin was 82 points. The game's 224 points came in 60 points higher than the predicted 164. Carlton led 39–59 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 82. The model went 2/3 on this match. Carlton covered the 17.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.40 (edge -10.1%) — model probability 61.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +17.5 @ $1.91 (edge -10.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 21 · Predicted total: 164

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 43 · 56 | 26 · 33 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 91/g | 82/g |
| Inside 50s | 12/g | 16.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7/g | 6.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.6% | 62.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 20 | 16 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 135/g | 171/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.2/g | 25.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.4% | 64.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 6 | 9 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 155/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.2/g | 16/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.8% | 72.2% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.5) +10% · Forwards 4.49/g (lg 4.45) +1% · Defenders 1.24/g (lg 1.32) -6%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.73/g (lg 0.5) +46% · Forwards 5.84/g (lg 4.45) +31% · Key Forwards 4.63/g (lg 3.61) +28%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 16 in 5g | 26/10g (3·5·1·1·0·5·3·4·2·2) | 17/7g | 116/54g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 12 in 5g | 17/10g (1·0·3·0·1·3·3·2·2·2) | 8/4g | 39/29g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 5% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 14' 43' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 8 in 5g | 11/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·4·1·1·1) | 12/7g | 82/57g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 6 in 5g | 10/10g (0·1·1·0·2·1·2·1·0·2) | 14/13g | 58/35g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 5 in 5g | 9/10g (1·0·0·0·3·1·1·1·0·2) | 4/8g | 28/73g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (0·1·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 60% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 3 in 5g | 12/10g (3·3·0·0·3·0·1·0·2·0) | 18/17g | 32/35g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $2.00 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 61' 66' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/11g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·3·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 21/49g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 2 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·2·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/15g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 1 in 5g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 8/23g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 12/35g | 32% | — | 🏉 101' |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 11/27g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/41g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 30/91g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 5/16g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Tucker | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 9/32g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 5/13g | 31% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/19g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 11/97g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Zac Fisher | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 17/43g | 16% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 6 in 4g | 18/10g (1·3·4·3·0·1·0·3·1·2) | 19/7g | 114/46g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 4' 38' 87' 69' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 4 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·4) | 3/3g | 15/17g | 52% | — | 🏉 10' 21' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·3) | 8/11g | 42/66g | 48% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 4 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·3) | 2/5g | 10/39g | 24% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 4/11g | 10/38g | 30% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 3 in 5g | 7/10g (3·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 12/26g | 34% | — | 🏉 27' 91' 92' 76' |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 2 in 5g | 8/10g (0·1·0·4·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 29/38g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.73 AI 59% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/2g | 22/15g | 52% | — | 🏉 73' 75' 80' |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/3g | 4/26g | 8% | — | 🏉 26' |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 11/22g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/3g | 3/16g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 6/25g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 1 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 27/67g | 44% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | — | 🏉 87' 91' |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (0·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 4/18g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 15/30g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Will White | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.52 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' 78' 82' |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 4/52g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hollands | FWD | no games | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 7/11g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 4/57g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/22g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 8/26g | 28% | — | 🏉 30' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 28.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 32 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 24 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 25.5 | $1.78 | 61% | 25 ✓ |
| Zac Fisher | 24.5 | $1.81 | 58% | 10 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 23.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 20 ✓ |
| Tom Powell | 21.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 19 ✓ |
| Luke Parker ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 23 ✗ |
| Tristan Xerri | 17.5 | $1.83 | 55% | 14 ✓ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.89 | 63% | 22 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 27.5 | $1.75 | 66% | 17 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 27.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 34 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 28 ✗ |
| Blake Acres | 20.5 | $1.79 | 57% | 22 ✗ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $2.00 | 72% | 11 ✓ |
| Adam Saad | 19.5 | $1.86 | 55% | 14 ✓ |
| Oliver Hollands | 17.5 | $1.81 | 59% | 14 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)