AI Game Review
Richmond defied the model's 87% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 16.4 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 149 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 166. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 184.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
13%
Gold Coast SUNS
87%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 87%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 429-point ELO rating advantage (1601 vs 1172). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Richmond. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 16.4 points with a combined total of 166.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.08
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.8%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +43.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.8%
Total Points
Under 184.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | WLLLL | 68.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS | WWWWW | 116.4 |
Avg Conceded
114.0
Richmond
71.2
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
-46.0
Richmond
45.2
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
340.4
Richmond
357.6
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
50.0
Richmond
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
87%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 16 points
Predicted total: 166 · Line: -16.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.04
Team Effectiveness
+0.01
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.