AI Game Review
Richmond defied the model's 87% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.4 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 149 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 166. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 184.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
13%
Gold Coast SUNS
87%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 87%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. Richmond are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Midfield ELO, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO, but Gold Coast SUNS counter with ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Richmond. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 16.4 points with a combined total of 166.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.08
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.8%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +43.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.8%
Total Points
Under 184.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | W L L L L | 93.9 |
Gold Coast SUNS | W W L L L | 92.1 |
Avg Conceded
77.4
Richmond
69.0
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
14.0
Richmond
13.9
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
375.0
Richmond
355.0
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
53.8
Richmond
47.0
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
87%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 16 points
Predicted total: 166 · Line: -16.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.04
Team Effectiveness
+0.01
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.