# Richmond v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 80 – 69 Gold Coast SUNS

_Richmond survive a scare against Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 41 – 27 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 13% / Gold Coast SUNS 87% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 19 Apr, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Jonty Faull (7' 1st Tipped ⚡), Seth Campbell (7' ×2), Jack Ross (38'), Thomson Dow (57'), Hugo Ralphsmith (61'), Tom Lynch (72' Tipped ⚡), Jayden Short (78'), Tim Taranto (80'), Sam Lalor (93') · Gold Coast SUNS: Will Graham (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ben King (30' Tipped ⚡), Ben Long (47' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Touk Miller (87'), Sam Flanders (62' Tipped ⚡), Jed Walter (65' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 87% | Lost |
| Richmond | 13% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 16.4 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Richmond 80–69 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 6 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Richmond led by 43 points at the last change and needed every bit of it. Final score: Richmond 80, Gold Coast SUNS 69, and the last quarter alone should worry anyone who thought this one was decided by three-quarter time.

Look at the arc. Quarter time had Richmond up 22-15, a manageable buffer. By half time it was 41-27, still comfortable. Then the third term blew it open: 78-35, a lead that looked unassailable and, on paper, probably was. Except Gold Coast then piled on 34 points to Richmond's 2 in the last quarter and turned a laugher into an 11-point squeaker. Richmond didn't so much finish the game as survive it.

The clearance and forward-half numbers tell you why the Suns made it interesting. Gold Coast won clearances 36 to 31 and doubled Richmond up on the inside 50 count, 62 to 42. They were sharper inside forward 50 too, 13 marks to 7. That's a side that had the ball going forward far more often and used it better once it got there, at least in terms of clean marks. If you'd shown a neutral only those four numbers, you'd have tipped Gold Coast to win going away.

Richmond survived on efficiency and clunk. Marks overall went their way, 85 to 78, and their disposal efficiency edged out Gold Coast's, 70.6% to 69.5%. Small margins, but multiplied across 338 disposals to Gold Coast's 333, they add up. Richmond's defence rating (980) going in was well clear of Gold Coast's (922), and while the last quarter tested that gap severely, the buffer built across the first three terms was just enough to survive the fadeout.

The ruck battle went to Richmond too, 1033 to 1024 in the pre-match ratings, and hit-outs on the day actually favoured Gold Coast, 42 to 33. So the rating edge didn't show up in the count, just another example of the raw numbers on the day not lining up neatly with what went in on paper.

Gold Coast's form coming in was arguably better than Richmond's, more wins in the last five (2.2 versus 1.4) and fewer points conceded on average (69.0 versus 77.4). None of that showed up early. It showed up late, when the Suns finally found the pressure and territory game their inside-50 dominance had been threatening all match.

For Alphr's model, this was a rough one. It had Gold Coast winning by 16.4 with an 87% probability, and Richmond won by 11 instead, a 27-point-plus swing from the predicted margin. The total came in at 149, seventeen points under the forecast 166, which at least meant the under 184.5 call landed. One correct call out of three isn't a proud return, but the model flagged the total shape well enough even as it badly misjudged who'd be left standing at the final siren.

Richmond built the lead early and paid for it late, and it's fair to say the scoreboard pressure ran in both directions before the day was done.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 22 | 19 | 37 | 2 | 80 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 15 | 12 | 8 | 34 | 69 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **338** | Disposals | 333 |
| **133** | Contested poss. | 123 |
| 31 | Clearances | **36** |
| 42 | Inside 50s | **62** |
| **85** | Marks | 78 |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| 54 | Tackles | **61** |
| 33 | Hit-outs | **42** |
| 67 | Intercepts | **68** |
| **70.6%** | Disposal eff. | 69.5% |

**Model Report Card**

Richmond defied the model's 87% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.4 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 149 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 166. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 184.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.08 (edge -5.8%) — model probability 86.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +43.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 184.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 16 · Predicted total: 166

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 33 · 50 | 58 · 33 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 9/g |
| Disposals | 73/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 13/g | 25/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.8/g | 12.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.2% | 68.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 23 | 9 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1.8/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 117/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.8/g | 22.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.5% | 68% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 11 | 5 · 2 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 144/g | 120/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.8/g | 16.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.9% | 77.8% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.58/g (lg 1.32) +20% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.51) +6% · Key Forwards 3.62/g (lg 3.61) +0%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.8/g (lg 3.61) +33% · Midfielders 2.78/g (lg 2.38) +17% · Rucks 0.57/g (lg 0.51) +12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 9 in 5g | 11/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·2·3·2·0) | 2/2g | 4/3g | 50% | — | 🏉 7' 90' |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 5 in 4g | 5/4g (2·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 75% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 4 in 4g | 13/10g (1·2·2·1·3·0·1·1·1·1) | 10/4g | 57/25g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/10g | 3/26g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 3 in 5g | 8/10g (0·3·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/11g | 26% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 2 in 1g | 10/10g (1·0·0·2·1·2·0·1·1·2) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 4/21g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·0·3·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 8/19g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 9/15g | 40% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/7g | 22% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 3/24g | 8% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.51 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/20g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 5/31g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | no games | 5/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/4g | 7/13g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Samson Ryan | RUC | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/2g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Thomson Dow | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 2% | — | 🏉 57' |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 17 in 4g | 27/10g (0·1·3·3·2·1·6·4·2·5) | 15/6g | 28/14g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 10 in 4g | 18/10g (1·1·3·0·0·3·4·1·2·3) | 7/8g | 22/48g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' 63' 82' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 7 in 4g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·3·1·1) | 2/10g | 6/25g | 36% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 6 in 4g | 10/10g (0·1·1·0·0·2·1·2·2·1) | 2/1g | 1/3g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 87' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 5 in 4g | 8/8g (1·2·0·0·2·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 77% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 5 in 3g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·3·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | 4 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 2/8g | 4/17g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 3 in 3g | 11/10g (1·0·1·0·2·2·2·1·0·2) | 3/5g | 4/9g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/6g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·2·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 12/22g | 22% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 1/14g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 12/18g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/10g | 7/22g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/8g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 1/14g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 5/8g | 8/17g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 4/14g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 3g | 8/10g (0·0·0·3·4·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/13g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 35 ✗ |
| Jacob Hopper | 24.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 27 ✗ |
| Jayden Short | 23.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 16 ✓ |
| Thomson Dow ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.99 | 66% | 18 ✓ |
| Nathan Broad ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.83 | 68% | 15 ✓ |
| James Trezise ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 13 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 17.5 | $1.85 | 44% | 27 ✗ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.94 | 69% | 20 ✗ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 30.5 | $1.83 | 47% | 32 ✗ |
| Matt Rowell | 27.5 | $1.92 | 55% | 29 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders | 26.5 | $2.00 | 39% | 13 ✓ |
| Touk Miller | 25.5 | $1.83 | 46% | 33 ✗ |
| Daniel Rioli | 23.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 11 ✓ |
| John Noble | 22.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 27 ✗ |
| Ben Ainsworth | 17.5 | $1.84 | 55% | 17 ✓ |
| Bailey Humphrey ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.85 | 71% | 7 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)