# Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 100 – 119 Geelong Cats

_Geelong Cats fight back to pounce on Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 72 – 60 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 77% / Geelong Cats 23% · Adelaide Oval · Thu, 10 Apr, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Daniel Curtin (14'), Ben Keays (19' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Izak Rankine (23' ×2), Darcy Fogarty (38' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (50' Tipped ⚡), Zac Taylor (86'), Sid Draper (87'), Riley Thilthorpe (98' Tipped ⚡) · Geelong Cats: Brad Close (9' ×2 1st), Zach Guthrie (16'), Patrick Dangerfield (21' ×4), Oliver Henry (29' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Dempsey (42' ×2), Shannon Neale (57' Tipped ⚡), Jack Bowes (65'), Jeremy Cameron (66' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Bailey Smith (93')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 77% | Lost |
| Geelong Cats | 23% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 13.6 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 100–119 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 5 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eight points down at the last change, Geelong Cats then put on 33 to Adelaide Crows's 6 in the final quarter and turned a comfortable-looking Adelaide lead into a 19-point loss. That's the whole story of this one right there. Everything before three-quarter time was a good, tight arm wrestle. The last twenty-odd minutes was one team getting run over.

Final score: Geelong Cats 119, Adelaide Crows 100, at Adelaide Oval.

Up until that final term, Adelaide had done just about everything the model expected of them. They led 33-28 at quarter time, 72-60 at the main break, 94-86 at the last change. Their ruck division, rated the stronger unit coming in at 1030 to 995, backed that up in the most lopsided way possible: 50 hit-outs to 29. Their disposal efficiency sat at 73.2% against Geelong's 69.5%, and they were cleaner inside forward 50 too, 16 marks to 13. On paper, at three-quarter time, this still looked like a home win building on schedule.

Then Geelong scored 33 points to Adelaide's 6 in the last quarter. Whatever Adelaide were doing well for three quarters, they stopped doing it, and whatever Geelong needed to find, they found all at once. A slow game turned into a rout in one term.

The volume numbers actually still favour Adelaide across the whole match. They had more disposals, 365 to 356, more contested possessions, 137 to 135, more marks by a wide margin, 89 to 73, and more intercepts, 73 to 65. Geelong won the clearance count, 40 to 37, and pushed forward more, 58 inside 50s to 52. None of that fully explains a 19-point away win. It was the final-quarter scoring burst that did it, not a stat sheet Geelong dominated across the four quarters.

Geelong's form line coming in was worse than Adelaide's on the season averages, a last-five win tally of roughly 3.4 against Adelaide's 2.6, and an average margin sitting at minus-9.7 compared to Adelaide's plus-28.7. On raw form, Adelaide were the better side by some distance, and their positional ratings backed that up everywhere: midfield 1045 to 972, forwards 1024 to 968, defence 1069 to 968. Geelong's only edge going in was the ruck gap being close, 995 to 1030, and even that got run over on the day.

Alphr's model had Adelaide at 77% to win, expected them by 13.6 points, and pegged the total at 178. Geelong won by 19 the other way, and the game produced 219 points, 41 more than tipped. All three picks missed. A hard one to defend on paper, and a reminder that a stronger side leading by eight goals into the last change can still lose the game entirely in twenty minutes.

Adelaide will look at the hit-out count and the intercept numbers and wonder how a game they controlled for three quarters slipped away so completely in the fourth. Geelong will just take the four points and not ask too many questions about how they got there.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 33 | 39 | 22 | 6 | 100 |
| Geelong Cats | 28 | 32 | 26 | 33 | 119 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **365** | Disposals | 356 |
| **137** | Contested poss. | 135 |
| 37 | Clearances | **40** |
| 52 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| **89** | Marks | 73 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 13 |
| **54** | Tackles | 51 |
| **50** | Hit-outs | 29 |
| **73** | Intercepts | 65 |
| **73.2%** | Disposal eff. | 69.5% |

**Model Report Card**

Geelong Cats defied the model's 77% prediction for Adelaide Crows, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 13.6 but the actual margin was 19 points. The game's 219 points came in 41 points higher than the predicted 178. Geelong Cats trailed 72–60 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 100–119. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.45 (edge +7.9%) — model probability 76.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 14 · Predicted total: 178

### H2H History (Last 5) — Geelong Cats lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R13 | Adelaide Crows | 75 – 74 | Geelong Cats |
| 2026 | R3 | Geelong Cats | 68 – 60 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R21 | Geelong Cats | 90 – 85 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2024 | R2 | Adelaide Crows | 77 – 96 | Geelong Cats |
| 2023 | R8 | Geelong Cats | 98 – 72 | Adelaide Crows |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 58 · 32 | 37 · 22 |
| Goal Assists | 8/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposals | 117/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.8/g | 21.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.5/g | 10/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.4% | 65.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 15 | 17 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 6.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 154/g | 113/g |
| Inside 50s | 26.3/g | 16/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.5% | 70.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 3 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 6.5/g | 13.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.1% | 78.9% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Forwards 4.56/g (lg 4.43) +3% · Key Forwards 3.56/g (lg 3.59) -1% · Rucks 0.5/g (lg 0.51) -2%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.48/g (lg 1.33) +11% · Midfielders 2.46/g (lg 2.36) +4% · Forwards 4.42/g (lg 4.43) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 14 in 4g | 27/10g (2·2·3·2·1·3·3·3·3·5) | 3/3g | 40/33g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 98' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 12 in 4g | 24/10g (4·0·1·5·2·0·4·3·2·3) | 6/5g | 99/60g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 40' 49' 59' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 10 in 4g | 20/10g (2·0·3·2·1·2·1·1·4·4) | 27/16g | 269/118g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 8 in 4g | 20/10g (5·1·1·3·1·1·1·4·2·1) | 2/7g | 46/63g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' 24' 53' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 4 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 10/12g | 6/14g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 4 in 4g | 14/10g (1·2·2·2·1·2·2·2·0·0) | 6/4g | 48/25g | 84% | — | 🏉 23' 82' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 4 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 3/4g | 16/36g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 38% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/10g | 24% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 19/43g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sid Draper | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 25% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Lachlan Sholl | MID | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 11/45g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Matt Crouch | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/14g | 23/87g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/37g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 18/57g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/28g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 7/68g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 18/127g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | no games | 4/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 22% | — | 🏉 86' |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 7 in 4g | 32/10g (6·1·3·9·4·2·4·1·1·1) | 35/16g | 42/18g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' 69' 72' 96' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 7 in 4g | 11/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·2·0·2·3) | 10/13g | 34/41g | 58% | — | 🏉 21' 55' 77' 79' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 7 in 4g | 16/10g (1·0·2·2·4·0·3·2·0·2) | 5/3g | 21/15g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 79% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 5 in 4g | 9/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·2·2·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/3g | 59% | — | 🏉 42' 81' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 4 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 3/6g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 4 in 4g | 16/10g (1·1·1·4·1·4·3·0·1·0) | 6/5g | 8/6g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 4 in 4g | 12/10g (1·2·1·2·2·0·1·2·0·1) | 1/2g | 2/2g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 57' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 8/9g | 62% | — | 🏉 9' 72' |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/7g | 6/10g | 36% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 5/17g | 6/21g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ted Clohesy | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/6g (0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/6g | 24% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 1 in 4g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·3·2·1·0·0·0) | 13/8g | 12/12g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Knevitt | FWD | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 8/14g | 11/19g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 1 in 1g | 15/10g (1·0·2·2·2·2·1·3·1·1) | 3/2g | 4/2g | 83% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/12g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/8g | 14% | — | 🏉 16' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Crouch | 30.5 | $1.83 | 64% | 28 ✓ |
| Rory Laird ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 23 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.95 | 79% | 15 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson | 25.5 | $1.96 | 56% | 21 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.85 | 76% | 25 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 85% | 22 ✗ |
| Mitchell Hinge ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 25 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell | 18.5 | $1.94 | 56% | 15 ✓ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.85 | 85% | 35 ✗ |
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.80 | 79% | 32 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 21 ✗ |
| Lawson Humphries ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 74% | 19 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie | 19.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 18 ✓ |
| Patrick Dangerfield | 18.5 | $1.85 | 51% | 16 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.85 | 66% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)