# Carlton v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 121 – 50 West Coast Eagles

_Carlton demolish West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 53 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 75% / West Coast Eagles 25% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 12 Apr, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Charlie Curnow (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Corey Durdin (24' ×4), Sam Walsh (33' ×3), Cooper Lord (46'), Lachie Fogarty (68'), Patrick Cripps (82' ×3), Sam Docherty (76'), Mitch McGovern (79'), Will White (88') · West Coast Eagles: Oscar Allen (3' 1st Tipped ⚡), Archer Reid (42' Tipped ⚡), Jamie Cripps (49' Tipped ⚡), Liam Ryan (64'), Matthew Owies (68' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 75% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 24.2 predicted → 71 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Carlton 121–50 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 5 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton led 53 to 24 at half time, and if anything the second half was worse for West Coast. The margin actually widened. Carlton went from a 29 point break to an 81 to 36 lead at the last change and then piled on another 40 points in the final quarter alone, closing it out 121 to 50. Whatever West Coast needed to find in the sheds, they didn't find it.

Adelaide Oval hosted a genuine hiding. A 71 point margin isn't a bad day, it's a bad month compressed into four quarters.

The disposal count tells you how one-sided the footy was, 421 to 281, and the clearance count tells you why: 40 to 18. Carlton simply had the ball more, and won it more often at the coalface. Inside 50s followed the same script, 73 to 35, more than double, and once they got there Carlton were clinical, 23 marks inside 50 against just 12. That's a lot of clean entries and not many rushed ones.

Oddly, West Coast were the more efficient side with ball in hand, hitting targets at 80.0% to Carlton's 72.0%, and they even won the tackle count, 46 to 35. None of it mattered. You can be neat with the footy you've barely got and still lose by 71, and that's exactly what happened. Carlton's intercept count, 58 to 49, meant West Coast's occasional clean passages kept getting cut off before they turned into scoreboard pressure.

The pre-match ratings had this pegged as one-way traffic, just not this one-way. Carlton held the edge everywhere that matters: forwards 1105 to 973, ruck 1076 to 972, midfield 1037 to 989, defence 1098 to 1047. Every positional line favoured Carlton, and every one of them showed up in the actual stat sheet, forward entries, clearances, hit-outs, the lot.

Form lines pointed the same way. Carlton had been averaging just 73.7 points a game across their last five, modest by any measure, while West Coast were averaging 105.3. On paper West Coast looked like the side that could score. On the day it was Carlton doing the scoring, and West Coast's defensive average of 83.8 points conceded over their last five got blown well past.

Alphr's model backed Carlton at 75% and got the result right, and picked the total at 177 against an actual 171, close enough to take on the chin. The margin was where it fell over, tipped at 24.2 and the real gap came in at 71. Three points, three misses on the finer detail, but the top line, the winner, was never in doubt. Sometimes the model reads the shape of the game and still undercooks how far one side can push it.

Wins and misses, all of it. Carlton get the perfect scoreline, West Coast get a long trip home to think about the second half that never arrived.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 24 | 29 | 28 | 40 | 121 |
| West Coast Eagles | 9 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 50 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **421** | Disposals | 281 |
| **136** | Contested poss. | 77 |
| **40** | Clearances | 18 |
| **73** | Inside 50s | 35 |
| **136** | Marks | 87 |
| **23** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| 35 | Tackles | **46** |
| 26 | Hit-outs | **32** |
| **58** | Intercepts | 49 |
| 72.0% | Disposal eff. | **80.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 24.2 but the actual margin was 71 points. Total score prediction of 177 was close to the actual 171, within 6 points. Carlton led 53–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 71. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.12 (edge -14.1%) — model probability 75.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -40.5 @ $1.91 (edge -14.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 24 · Predicted total: 177

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 27 | 27 · 57 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 71/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.5/g | 19/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.5/g | 6.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 61.9% | 64.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 10 | 5 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 169/g | 90/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.3/g | 11.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 62.7% | 70.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 8 | 3 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 119/g | 106/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.8/g | 12.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 0/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.4% | 68.2% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Midfielders 3.56/g (lg 2.37) +50% · Rucks 0.74/g (lg 0.51) +45% · Key Forwards 5/g (lg 3.6) +39%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.56/g (lg 0.51) +10% · Forwards 4.5/g (lg 4.44) +1% · Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.33) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Brodie Kemp | KF | 7 in 4g | 12/10g (0·0·0·4·1·0·1·1·5·0) | 5/3g | 1/3g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 4 in 3g | 18/10g (2·1·3·4·3·0·1·0·3·1) | 26/6g | 10/7g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 74' |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·2) | 5/11g | 0/6g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 3 in 4g | 8/10g (1·3·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 4/8g | 4/10g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 2 in 4g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·4·1·1·1·0·0) | 7/8g | 2/3g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/3g | 2/2g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/4g | 4/2g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/7g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 1 in 1g | 22/10g (1·3·2·5·3·2·1·1·3·1) | 12/5g | 10/6g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 92% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 3/7g | 44% | — | 🏉 82' 87' 92' |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 1/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 33' 52' 58' |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | no games | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/3g | 2/4g | 50% | — | 🏉 24' 28' 84' 70' |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 24% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 42/31g | 10% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/14g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 26% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/5g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Will White | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 88' |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 5 in 4g | 13/10g (0·1·1·3·1·2·0·1·2·2) | 14/11g | 27/14g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.57 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 4 in 2g | 10/10g (0·1·2·0·2·1·0·0·3·1) | 8/5g | 6/6g | 64% | — | 🏉 64' |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.99 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 3 in 2g | 10/10g (0·1·3·1·1·1·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 1/1g | 63% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 3 in 4g | 14/10g (2·1·2·5·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 9/6g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 3 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 2 in 1g | 22/10g (3·1·2·2·3·4·1·2·2·2) | 7/7g | 8/8g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 81% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 2 in 4g | 12/10g (3·1·1·1·3·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.60 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' |
| – | Clay Hall | MID | 1 in 2g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 8/10g | 0/10g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Gross | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 3/8g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 3/11g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 6/13g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/13g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/2g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 29.5 | $1.79 | 65% | 37 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.96 | 65% | 23 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 28.5 | $1.94 | 59% | 39 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.85 | 81% | 27 ✗ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.80 | 77% | 14 ✓ |
| Adam Saad | 20.5 | $1.79 | 55% | 25 ✗ |
| Sam Docherty | 19.5 | $1.87 | 34% | 22 ✗ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Maric ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 93% | 21 ✓ |
| Liam Baker ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 69% | 23 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 20.5 | $1.78 | 62% | 16 ✓ |
| Jack Graham | 19.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 20 ✗ |
| Liam Duggan | 19.5 | $1.78 | 65% | 19 ✓ |
| Clay Hall ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.78 | 81% | 12 ✓ |
| Tom Gross ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.79 | 66% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)