AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 24.2 but the actual margin was 71 points. Total score prediction of 177 was close to the actual 171, within 6 points. Carlton led 53–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 71. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
75%
West Coast Eagles
25%
AI Match Overview
Carlton are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Carlton ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Carlton carry a 57-point ELO rating advantage (1563 vs 1506). Recent form favours Carlton with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for West Coast Eagles. The margin model predicts Carlton by 24.2 points with a combined total of 177.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @1.12
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.1%
Line / Spread
Carlton -40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.1%
Total Points
Under 180.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | W W W W L | 73.7 |
West Coast Eagles | W W W L L | 105.3 |
Avg Conceded
76.9
Carlton
83.8
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
5.5
Carlton
16.9
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
353.3
Carlton
342.4
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
47.9
Carlton
47.3
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Carlton predicted to win by 24 points
Predicted total: 177 · Line: +24.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.51
Team Effectiveness
+0.49
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.