# Collingwood v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 109 – 78 Sydney Swans

_Collingwood see off Sydney Swans._

Half time: 67 – 50 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 50% / Sydney Swans 50% · Adelaide Oval · Fri, 11 Apr, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Brody Mihocek (11' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Beau McCreery (14' ×2), Daniel McStay (24' Tipped ⚡), Will Hoskin-Elliott (38'), Lachlan Sullivan (43'), Bobby Hill (44' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jamie Elliott (65' ×3), Tim Membrey (75' Tipped ⚡) · Sydney Swans: Isaac Heeney (4' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Tom Hanily (7' ×2), Braeden Campbell (10'), Hayden McLean (27' ×3), Corey Warner (50' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Will Hayward (53' Tipped ⚡), Angus Sheldrick (96')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 50% | Won |
| Sydney Swans | 50% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.5 predicted → 31 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs Sydney Swans Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Collingwood 109–78 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 5 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood 109, Sydney Swans 78, and for a good while at Adelaide Oval that scoreline looked nowhere near certain. Sydney sat within two points at the first change, and the margin stayed tight enough that either side could have taken control from there.

Quarter time had it at 27-25, Collingwood's way but only just. That's the kind of margin that means nothing on its own. What mattered was the next twelve minutes.

By half time it was 67-50, which means Collingwood outscored Sydney roughly 40 to 25 in that second term alone. That's the passage that did the damage. The margin never came back below 17 points after that, no matter what Sydney tried in reply.

Three-quarter time had Collingwood up 89-64, a 25-point lead built on that second-term surge and held through the third. The last quarter was about how safe Collingwood could make it: 20 points to Sydney's 14, closing the game out at 109-78. Once that second-quarter gap opened, Sydney were always playing catch-up against a side content to sit on the lead and let the clock do the rest.

Strip back the scoreboard and the disposal count actually favoured Sydney, 377 to 363, with a slightly better efficiency rate too, 73.6 per cent to Collingwood's 72.8. Inside 50s were close to even, 56 to 55 in Sydney's favour. On raw ball use, this was a shared contest.

None of it mattered much where it counted. Collingwood won the fight for the footy, 144 contested possessions to 134, and had the edge at the coalface with 38 clearances to 37. They took more marks overall, 85 to 80, and were far cleaner inside their own forward line with 13 marks inside 50 against Sydney's 9.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 27 | 40 | 22 | 20 | 109 |
| Sydney Swans | 25 | 25 | 14 | 14 | 78 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 363 | Disposals | **377** |
| **144** | Contested poss. | 134 |
| **38** | Clearances | 37 |
| 55 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| **85** | Marks | 80 |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **72** | Tackles | 61 |
| 26 | Hit-outs | **50** |
| **71** | Intercepts | 63 |
| 72.8% | Disposal eff. | **73.6%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.5 but the actual margin was 31 points. Collingwood led 67–50 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 31. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.70 (edge -8.7%) — model probability 50.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 8 · Predicted total: 173

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 36 · 20 | 31 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 5.8/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 20/g | 17/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.8/g | 7.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.8% | 69.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 14 | 14 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.8/g | 22.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 64% | 68.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 3 | 5 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 16/g | 12.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.7% | 76.7% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.67/g (lg 0.51) +31% · Forwards 4.3/g (lg 4.43) -3% · Midfielders 2.26/g (lg 2.37) -5%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.33) -5% · Forwards 4.04/g (lg 4.43) -9% · Key Forwards 3.28/g (lg 3.6) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 6 in 4g | 20/10g (5·2·1·3·1·2·1·4·0·1) | 12/10g | 17/13g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | 5 in 4g | 14/10g (2·2·1·2·0·2·1·2·2·0) | 6/6g | 7/8g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' 92' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 5 in 3g | 18/10g (2·3·3·0·2·2·1·2·3·0) | 8/8g | 12/8g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 40' 79' |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 5 in 4g | 10/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·2·2·1·0) | 16/12g | 19/10g | 76% | — | 🏉 65' 79' 77' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 4 in 4g | 14/10g (2·1·3·1·1·2·0·3·1·0) | 8/8g | 5/8g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/11g | 1/12g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 4/17g | 4/13g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/6g | 3/5g | 42% | — | 🏉 14' 88' |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/14g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 1 in 4g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·2·2·0·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 5/5g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/8g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/14g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 0 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 3/5g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 4/12g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/10g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 4/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 4/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·2·2·0·1·1·0) | 9/16g | 7/10g | 52% | — | 🏉 38' |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 9 in 4g | 17/10g (0·2·2·1·3·0·3·0·2·4) | 1/2g | 11/3g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 74% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 7 in 4g | 13/10g (0·2·1·0·2·1·2·2·1·2) | 7/6g | 2/5g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 62% ✗ No goal | 🏉 50' 86' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 7 in 4g | 16/10g (3·3·0·2·0·1·1·1·1·4) | 8/10g | 7/9g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Tom Hanily | FWD | 4 in 4g | 4/4g (0·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 75% | — | 🏉 7' 36' |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/5g | 2/4g | 28% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 3 in 2g | 10/10g (2·2·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 4/4g | 4/5g | 66% | — | 🏉 27' 60' 92' |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 22% | — | 🏉 50' 86' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 2 in 4g | 13/10g (1·1·3·3·2·1·0·2·0·0) | 10/10g | 22/11g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.41 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' 87' |
| – | Peter Ladhams | RUC | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 2/4g | 14/20g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — | 🏉 96' |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/13g | 20% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 1/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 0/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/10g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/6g (1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/11g | 8% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/9g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/5g | 36% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Daicos | 26.5 | $1.89 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Nick Daicos | 24.5 | $1.87 | 30% | 34 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 22.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 26 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 21.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 28 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp | 20.5 | $1.88 | 50% | 19 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 24 ✗ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.77 | 96% | 29 ✗ |
| Darcy Cameron | 16.5 | $1.85 | 53% | 20 ✗ |
| Harry Perryman | 16.5 | $1.86 | 50% | 17 ✗ |
| Brayden Maynard | 15.5 | $1.88 | 52% | 11 ✓ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 77% | 28 ✗ |
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 100% | 13 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 23.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 24 ✗ |
| Matt Roberts ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.92 | 67% | 24 ✗ |
| Nick Blakey | 20.5 | $1.89 | 54% | 18 ✓ |
| Riley Bice ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 21 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd | 20.5 | $1.95 | 47% | 18 ✓ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.91 | 66% | 22 ✗ |
| James Jordon ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 16 ✓ |
| Oliver Florent | 16.5 | $1.85 | 38% | 23 ✗ |
| Brodie Grundy | 15.5 | $1.85 | 52% | 23 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)