AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.5 but the actual margin was 31 points. Collingwood led 67–50 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 31. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
50%
Sydney Swans
50%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Collingwood a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Scoring Form. Collingwood carry a 52-point ELO rating advantage (1654 vs 1602). Recent form favours Collingwood with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 7.5 points with a combined total of 173.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.70
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.7%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.7%
Total Points
Over 168.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | WWWWL | 86.0 |
Sydney Swans | WWLLL | 80.6 |
Avg Conceded
64.4
Collingwood
83.8
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
21.6
Collingwood
-3.2
Sydney Swans
Disposals
373.0
Collingwood
333.2
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
50.0
Collingwood
50.0
Sydney Swans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
50%
Collingwood predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 173 · Line: +7.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.13
Team Effectiveness
+0.25
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.