Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
37%
Essendon
63%
AI Match Overview
Essendon hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Melbourne are far from out of this at 37%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. The margin model predicts Essendon by 6.0 points with a combined total of 177.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Essendon to Win @1.95
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.4%
Line / Spread
Essendon -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.4%
Total Points
Over 171.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | W W W L L | 89.7 |
Essendon | W W W L L | 91.7 |
Avg Conceded
91.5
Melbourne
86.2
Essendon
Avg Margin
-6.1
Melbourne
21.3
Essendon
Disposals
366.3
Melbourne
375.9
Essendon
Inside 50s
44.4
Melbourne
56.1
Essendon
ELO–Market Disagreement
Melbourne hold the ELO advantage (1539 vs 1528), but the market favours Essendon (@1.95).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Essendon predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 177 · Line: -6.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.04
Team Effectiveness
-0.04
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
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