# Melbourne v Essendon — AFL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Melbourne 57 – 96 Essendon

_Essendon see off Melbourne._

Half time: 17 – 46 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Melbourne 37% / Essendon 63% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 12 Apr, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Melbourne: Kysaiah Pickett (11' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harry Petty (71'), Bayley Fritsch (75' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harry Sharp (93'), Tom Sparrow (81') · Essendon: Harry Jones (6' 1st), Jye Menzie (9' ×4), Ben Hobbs (17' ×2), Nate Caddy (41' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Dylan Shiel (51'), Xavier Duursma (89'), Nic Martin (94' Tipped ⚡), Jade Gresham (67'), Mason Redman (94')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 63% | Won |
| Melbourne | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.0 predicted → 39 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne vs Essendon Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 5, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Melbourne 57–96 Essendon in AFL Round 5 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Essendon had it in hand by quarter time and never let go from there. The margin was 12 points after the first term, Melbourne 10 to Essendon 22, and by half time it had blown out to 17-46. That's 24 points to Essendon and just 7 to Melbourne in the second quarter alone, the passage that decided the contest before the main scoring was even done.

From there it was about managing the gap. Essendon led 65-49 at the last change and closed it out 96-57, a 39-point win at Adelaide Oval that was never seriously threatened after quarter time.

The strange part is Melbourne actually won several of the contested categories that are supposed to matter. They had 45 clearances to 41, more inside 50s at 51 to 43, and flogged Essendon at the stoppages with 58 hit-outs to 34. None of it translated into scoreboard pressure. Melbourne got the ball forward more often but did far less with it once there, managing only 8 marks inside 50 to Essendon's 15. Getting there and finishing are different jobs, and Essendon simply finished better.

Essendon's edge showed up in the numbers that travel with structure and composure rather than raw effort. They out-disposed Melbourne 448 to 354, ran a cleaner 76.1% disposal efficiency to 73.6%, and picked up 62 intercepts to 59. Add 116 marks to 97 and you've got a side that controlled the ball in transit even when it wasn't winning the ball at source. That's a defence and ruck combination doing its job, and it lines up with how the two sides rated coming in. Essendon's ruck (1086) and defence (1080) were rated well clear of Melbourne's (1012 and 1010), and on this day that gap showed up exactly where you'd expect, in cleaner ball use rather than hit-out counts.

Melbourne's recent form had them going into this one on the back foot regardless, a negative average margin of minus 6.1 across their last five against Essendon's plus 21.3, and that form gap played out again here. The one area Melbourne rated ahead, forwards at 1060 to 1046, never got the service it needed given how far the marks inside 50 split ran against them.

Alphr's model called Essendon at 63% and got the winner right, but undercooked the margin badly, tipping Essendon by 6 when it finished 39. The total was closer to the mark, predicted at 177 against an actual 153, so the model had the shape of a lower-scoring, defensively shaped fixture but missed just how one-sided the second term would be. Two from three on this one, and Essendon covered the line with a lot to spare.

Melbourne will look at the clearance and inside-50 counts and wonder how a side wins those battles and still loses by 39. The answer's sitting in the marks inside 50 column and the disposal efficiency gap. Essendon didn't need more the ball, they just did more with it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 10 | 7 | 32 | 8 | 57 |
| Essendon | 22 | 24 | 19 | 31 | 96 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Melbourne | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 354 | Disposals | **448** |
| 132 | Contested poss. | **137** |
| **45** | Clearances | 41 |
| **51** | Inside 50s | 43 |
| 97 | Marks | **116** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **15** |
| 54 | Tackles | **57** |
| **58** | Hit-outs | 34 |
| 59 | Intercepts | **62** |
| 73.6% | Disposal eff. | **76.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Essendon to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.0 but the actual margin was 39 points. The game's 153 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 177. Essendon led 17–46 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 39. The model went 2/3 on this match. Essendon covered the 1.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $1.95 (edge +11.4%) — model probability 62.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 6 · Predicted total: 177

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Melbourne | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 22 · 40 | 15 · 35 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 4.7/g |
| Disposals | 94/g | 95/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.5/g | 15.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.3/g | 4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70% | 68.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Melbourne | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 13 | 16 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 4.7/g |
| Disposals | 142/g | 165/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.3/g | 30/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.1% | 71.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Melbourne | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 4 · 7 | 5 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 7.8/g | 9.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.5% | 76.1% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.55/g (lg 1.32) +17% · Forwards 5.18/g (lg 4.49) +15% · Key Forwards 3.92/g (lg 3.61) +9%
**Who scores on Melbourne** — Rucks 0.71/g (lg 0.5) +42% · Defenders 1.37/g (lg 1.32) +4% · Midfielders 2.27/g (lg 2.33) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 6 in 4g | 15/10g (0·5·1·2·1·0·2·1·1·2) | 10/6g | 15/15g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 80% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 4 in 4g | 11/10g (2·1·0·0·3·1·1·1·1·1) | 1/2g | 4/4g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 77% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $14.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 4 in 4g | 9/10g (2·2·0·0·0·1·0·3·1·0) | 2/2g | 3/4g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 33% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henderson | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 1 in 4g | 7/10g (0·2·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 13/7g | 25/13g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' 81' |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 9/15g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 9/16g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 1 in 2g | 9/10g (2·2·1·1·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 8/6g | 8/7g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 5/10g | 26% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 5/9g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/13g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 0 in 4g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/7g | 32% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Jack Viney | MID | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 7/14g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 0 in 1g | 18/10g (5·2·2·0·1·2·4·0·2·0) | 4/5g | 14/10g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 86' |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 3/11g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Steven May | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/14g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tom McDonald | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 16/16g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/9g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 6 in 3g | 14/10g (0·1·1·1·3·1·1·1·3·2) | 3/5g | 3/7g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 6 in 3g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2·4·0) | 3/10g | 4/15g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (1·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 3 in 3g | 9/10g (0·2·0·3·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 12/12g | 12/12g | 60% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (0·2·0·1·3·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 41' 85' |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 2 in 3g | 12/10g (4·0·0·2·0·3·1·0·1·1) | 6/3g | 4/5g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 94' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (1·0·1·2·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 3/3g | 20/42g | 44% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 4/4g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Jones | DEF | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/3g | 5/5g | 64% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Jye Menzie | FWD | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 47% | — | 🏉 9' 38' 54' 96' |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 16% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 2/11g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 22% | — | 🏉 17' 78' |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/13g | 6/13g | 16% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Bryan | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 24 ✓ |
| Christian Petracca | 23.5 | $1.82 | 55% | 27 ✗ |
| Jack Viney | 21.5 | $1.80 | 46% | 21 ✓ |
| Steven May | 21.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 12 ✓ |
| Trent Rivers | 20.5 | $1.88 | 51% | 22 ✗ |
| Christian Salem | 20.5 | $1.80 | 39% | 21 ✗ |
| Jake Bowey | 20.5 | $1.80 | 61% | 23 ✗ |
| Ed Langdon | 19.5 | $1.94 | 30% | 25 ✗ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 27.5 | $1.87 | 37% | 37 ✗ |
| Nic Martin | 23.5 | $1.80 | 41% | 28 ✗ |
| Sam Durham | 23.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 28 ✗ |
| Dylan Shiel | 23.5 | $1.84 | 53% | 30 ✗ |
| Jordan Ridley | 23.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 26 ✗ |
| Will Setterfield | 22.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 21 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 21.5 | $1.80 | 40% | 26 ✗ |
| Mason Redman | 21.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 22 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)