Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
37%
Essendon
63%
AI Match Overview
Essendon hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Melbourne are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Essendon ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Essendon carry a 117-point ELO rating advantage (1386 vs 1269). Recent form favours Essendon with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Essendon by 6.0 points with a combined total of 177.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Essendon to Win @1.95
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.4%
Line / Spread
Essendon -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.4%
Total Points
Over 171.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | LLLLL | 61.0 |
Essendon | WLLLL | 76.6 |
Avg Conceded
102.0
Melbourne
103.4
Essendon
Avg Margin
-41.0
Melbourne
-26.8
Essendon
Disposals
346.6
Melbourne
393.8
Essendon
Inside 50s
50.0
Melbourne
50.0
Essendon
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Essendon predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 177 · Line: -6.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.04
Team Effectiveness
-0.04
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.