AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 2.9 but the actual margin was 30 points. The game's 212 points came in 47 points higher than the predicted 165. The model went 1/3 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
52%
Hawthorn
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Port Adelaide a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Hawthorn are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO — but Port Adelaide counter with Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO which tips the scales. Hawthorn carry a 344-point ELO rating advantage (1753 vs 1409). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 2.9 points with a combined total of 165.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @2.85
Winner ✓
Edge
+17.2%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn +15.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+17.2%
Total Points
Under 174.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | WLLLL | 75.2 |
Hawthorn | WWWWL | 87.0 |
Avg Conceded
92.0
Port Adelaide
72.0
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
-16.8
Port Adelaide
15.0
Hawthorn
Disposals
370.4
Port Adelaide
354.4
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
50.0
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 165 · Line: -2.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.13
Team Effectiveness
+0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.