# Port Adelaide v Hawthorn — AFL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 121 – 91 Hawthorn

_Port Adelaide see off Hawthorn._

Half time: 79 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 52% / Hawthorn 48% · Adelaide Oval · Sun, 13 Apr, 07:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Jackson Mead (4' ×2 1st), Willie Rioli (7' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Miles Bergman (15'), Joe Richards (22'), Mitch Georgiades (27' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Sam Powell-Pepper (37' ×2), Connor Rozee (44'), Willem Drew (55'), Ollie Lord (79' Tipped ⚡), Tom Cochrane (71') · Hawthorn: Jack Gunston (11' ×6 Tipped ⚡), Lloyd Meek (65' ×2), Jai Newcombe (75'), James Sicily (77' ×2), Mabior Chol (76' Tipped ⚡), James Worpel (78'), Luke Breust (98')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 52% | Won |
| Hawthorn | 48% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.9 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Port Adelaide 121–91 Hawthorn in AFL Round 5 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty-nine to eight. That was the quarter-time score at Adelaide Oval, and it told you almost everything you needed to know about how this one would go. Port Adelaide didn't so much start well as bury Hawthorn before the game had properly begun, and from there it was a question of by how much, not who.

The gap only grew. Half-time had it at 79-20, a lead so lopsided that the third quarter became a formality rather than a contest. By three-quarter time Port Adelaide were out to 94-47, and Hawthorn's task had shifted from winning the game to salvaging respectability. They managed some of that late, running up the last term to get within 30 points at the final siren, 121-91. Credit for showing a pulse, but the game was decided long before the final quarter arrived.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard already screamed. Port Adelaide won hit-outs 50 to 38, a ruck dominance that fed directly into winning the clearance count 48-43. Winning the ball at source meant more of it in Port hands generally, 374 disposals to 348, and they used it better too, 70.7 per cent efficiency against 68.9. More the ball, more the class with it.

Territory told the same story. Port Adelaide went inside 50 a whopping 61 times to Hawthorn's 48, and while both sides were dead level on marks inside 50 at 12 apiece, Port simply created more chances to score by sheer volume of entries. Contested possessions were close, 144 to 140, so this wasn't a case of Port bullying every contest. It was a case of turning even footy into a lopsided scoreboard through repeat entries and cleaner hands.

Hawthorn's one clear stat win was tackles, 64 to 56, which suggests a side that spent much of the day chasing rather than dictating. Pressure without the ball doesn't fix a hit-out deficit, and it doesn't stop 61 inside-50s from becoming 121 points.

Look at the positional ratings coming in and none of this should surprise anyone. Port Adelaide were rated stronger in midfield, 1099 to 1006, stronger up forward, 1076 to 988, and stronger in the ruck, 1012 to 975. Hawthorn's only edge was defence, 1093 to 1030, and on this occasion that edge simply didn't show up. Form lines pointed to a genuine gap too, with Port averaging 97.7 points a game over their last five to Hawthorn's 77.6.

Alphr's model picked Port Adelaide to win at 52 per cent, so the right side of the ledger got ticked. The margin was where it fell over badly, tipping Hawthorn by 2.9 when Port actually won by 30, and the total was out by 47 points as well, predicting 165 against an actual 212. One from three on this one. Wins and misses, all of it, and this was a game where the winner was obvious early and the model's job was just picking the number, which it didn't.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 39 | 40 | 15 | 27 | 121 |
| Hawthorn | 8 | 12 | 27 | 44 | 91 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| **374** | Disposals | 348 |
| **144** | Contested poss. | 140 |
| **48** | Clearances | 43 |
| **61** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| **77** | Marks | 67 |
| 12 | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| 56 | Tackles | **64** |
| **50** | Hit-outs | 38 |
| **68** | Intercepts | 64 |
| **70.7%** | Disposal eff. | 68.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.9 but the actual margin was 30 points. The game's 212 points came in 47 points higher than the predicted 165. The model went 1/3 on this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $2.85 (edge +17.2%) — model probability 52.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +17.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 174.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 3 · Predicted total: 165

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 26 · 37 | 29 · 21 |
| Goal Assists | 6/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 85/g |
| Inside 50s | 20/g | 14.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.5/g | 7.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.5% | 69.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 13 · 7 | 14 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 143/g | 151/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.5/g | 25.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.3/g | 3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.8% | 71.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 8 | 10 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 11/g | 15.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.8% | 80.3% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.62/g (lg 1.32) +23% · Key Forwards 3.73/g (lg 3.61) +3% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.37) +0%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.53/g (lg 1.32) +16% · Forwards 4.58/g (lg 4.45) +3% · Key Forwards 3.35/g (lg 3.61) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 9 in 4g | 23/10g (3·4·2·1·3·1·0·4·2·3) | 5/5g | 67/40g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' 41' 90' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 6 in 4g | 14/10g (2·2·2·1·1·0·1·1·1·3) | 6/5g | 29/30g | 76% | — | — |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 4 in 4g | 11/10g (2·2·0·0·2·1·0·3·0·1) | 5/7g | 61/79g | 70% | — | 🏉 37' 88' |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 4 in 4g | 13/10g (0·2·3·1·2·1·1·3·0·0) | 14/6g | 51/29g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 89' 90' |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 3 in 1g | 16/10g (2·4·1·0·2·1·1·1·1·3) | 0/1g | 14/10g | 83% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·0·2·0·0) | 5/5g | 72/72g | 44% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/20g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 48% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/12g | 54/128g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 5/15g | 63/130g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/12g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 23/52g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/55g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/20g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/25g | 14% | — | 🏉 4' 47' |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/34g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 10/48g | 10% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Tom Cochrane | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 9/62g | 10% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 29/65g | 40% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 7 in 4g | 15/10g (1·0·2·4·0·1·2·3·1·1) | 3/5g | 8/8g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 6 in 4g | 14/10g (2·1·1·3·0·1·1·2·3·0) | 9/5g | 12/8g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 6 in 4g | 19/10g (0·0·3·3·4·3·0·3·2·1) | 3/2g | 5/3g | 69% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 78% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 5 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·1) | 5/9g | 9/14g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 4 in 2g | 19/10g (1·0·4·3·5·1·1·0·2·2) | 33/14g | 31/16g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 63' 89' 69' 85' 94' |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 32% | — | 🏉 65' 93' |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/5g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 2 in 4g | 9/10g (0·2·0·2·1·2·0·2·0·0) | 6/4g | 9/7g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 5/6g | 44% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 6/8g | 24% | — | 🏉 77' 82' |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (1·3·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 22/69g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/3g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/10g | 26% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 17/48g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Luke Breust | FWD | 0 in 1g | 14/10g (2·4·2·1·2·0·2·0·1·0) | 27/17g | 30/18g | 76% | — | 🏉 98' |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 33 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines | 25.5 | $1.60 | 58% | 26 ✗ |
| Connor Rozee ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 28 ✗ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 65% | 29 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 74% | 7 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 20.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 23 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell | 18.5 | $1.93 | 54% | 18 ✓ |
| Travis Boak | 17.5 | $1.68 | 39% | 20 ✗ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 26.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 29 ✗ |
| James Worpel ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 23 ✗ |
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | $1.92 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| Cam Mackenzie ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 77% | 18 ✓ |
| James Sicily | 20.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 20 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 20.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 19 ✓ |
| Josh Ward ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 18 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)