AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.9 but the actual margin was 30 points. The game's 212 points came in 47 points higher than the predicted 165. The model went 1/3 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
52%
Hawthorn
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Port Adelaide a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Port Adelaide ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Port Adelaide carry a 27-point ELO rating advantage (1561 vs 1534). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 2.9 points with a combined total of 165.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @2.85
Winner ✓
Edge
+17.2%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn +15.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+17.2%
Total Points
Under 174.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | W L L L L | 97.7 |
Hawthorn | W W L L L | 77.6 |
Avg Conceded
71.3
Port Adelaide
72.3
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
-7.9
Port Adelaide
13.7
Hawthorn
Disposals
362.1
Port Adelaide
355.7
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
53.9
Port Adelaide
54.7
Hawthorn
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1561 vs 1534), but the market favours Hawthorn (@1.54).
The model sides with ELO, Port Adelaide predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 165 · Line: -2.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.13
Team Effectiveness
+0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.