# AFL Round 5 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 5 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 5 at a glance
- 9 matches · 18W–9L on 27 settled picks (67% strike rate) · best value +18.8% edge

## Round 5 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $1.52 | Brisbane Lions 85% | WON |
| St Kilda v GWS GIANTS | GWS GIANTS @ $1.50 | GWS GIANTS 85% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v Hawthorn | Port Adelaide @ $2.85 | Port Adelaide 52% | WON |
| Melbourne v Essendon | Essendon @ $1.95 | Essendon 63% | WON |
| North Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.22 | Gold Coast SUNS 92% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats | Adelaide Crows @ $1.45 | Adelaide Crows 77% | LOST |
| Richmond v Fremantle | Fremantle @ $1.10 | Fremantle 95% | WON |
| Carlton v West Coast Eagles | Carlton @ $1.12 | Carlton 75% | WON |
| Collingwood v Sydney Swans | Collingwood @ $1.70 | Collingwood 50% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Norwood Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 15.4% / Brisbane Lions 84.5%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.52 (edge +18.8%) — model probability 84.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 25 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r5-western-bulldogs-v-brisbane-lions

### St Kilda v GWS GIANTS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Norwood Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 15.1% / GWS GIANTS 84.9%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.50 (edge +18.2%) — model probability 84.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 22 · Predicted total: 159
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r5-st-kilda-v-gws-giants

### Port Adelaide v Hawthorn
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 52.2% / Hawthorn 47.8%
- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $2.85 (edge +17.2%) — model probability 52.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +17.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 174.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 3 · Predicted total: 165
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r5-port-adelaide-v-hawthorn

### Melbourne v Essendon
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 37.4% / Essendon 62.6%
- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $1.95 (edge +11.4%) — model probability 62.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 6 · Predicted total: 177
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r5-melbourne-v-essendon

### North Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Barossa Park · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 7.9% / Gold Coast SUNS 92.1%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.22 (edge +10.2%) — model probability 92.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +26.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 30 · Predicted total: 172
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r5-north-melbourne-v-gold-coast-suns

### Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 76.9% / Geelong Cats 23.1%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.45 (edge +7.9%) — model probability 76.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 14 · Predicted total: 178
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r5-adelaide-crows-v-geelong-cats

### Richmond v Fremantle
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Barossa Park · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 5.3% / Fremantle 94.7%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.10 (edge +3.8%) — model probability 94.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 54 · Predicted total: 167
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r5-richmond-v-fremantle

### Carlton v West Coast Eagles
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 75.2% / West Coast Eagles 24.8%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.12 (edge -14.1%) — model probability 75.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -40.5 @ $1.91 (edge -14.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 24 · Predicted total: 177
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r5-carlton-v-west-coast-eagles

### Collingwood v Sydney Swans
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 50.1% / Sydney Swans 49.9%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.70 (edge -8.7%) — model probability 50.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 8 · Predicted total: 173
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r5-collingwood-v-sydney-swans

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/4 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/4.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/6 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/6.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/5
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC