# Richmond v Fremantle — AFL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 47 – 108 Fremantle

_Fremantle run riot over Richmond._

Half time: 39 – 49 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 5% / Fremantle 95% · Barossa Park · Sun, 13 Apr, 12:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Kamdyn McIntosh (6'), Maurice Rioli (8'), Tyler Sonsie (18'), Steely Green (38'), Jacob Blight (74') · Fremantle: Josh Treacy (3' ×6 1st Tipped 🎯), Murphy Reid (29'), Michael Frederick (42' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Hayden Young (49' ×2), Shai Bolton (69' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Alex Pearce (86'), Patrick Voss (93' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 95% | Won |
| Richmond | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 53.9 predicted → 61 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Richmond 47–108 Fremantle in AFL Round 5 at Barossa Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Richmond and Fremantle finished with almost identical disposal counts, 360 to 362. Everything else about what each side did with the ball was a different story entirely. Fremantle won 108 to 47 at Barossa Park, and the gap in intent between those two tallies explains the scoreline better than the final margin does.

Start with entries. Fremantle went inside 50 sixty-five times to Richmond's 36, and when they got there they made it count: 17 marks inside forward 50 to Richmond's four. Richmond had plenty of the ball through the middle, contested possessions weren't far apart at 112 to 129, but kept turning it over short of goal or lobbing it forward with nobody home. Four contested marks inside 50 for an entire game is not a return you win with, no matter how much of the footy you had elsewhere.

The scoreboard built in stages. It was tight after the first term, 28-26 Fremantle's way, and still only a ten-point game at half time, 49-39. From there Fremantle took over. In the third quarter alone they outscored Richmond 37 to 6, turning a ten-point contest into a 41-point rout by the last change. The final quarter was academic: Fremantle added 22 more, Richmond managed two.

That surge lines up with the clearance and pressure numbers. Fremantle won clearances 43 to 33 and laid 62 tackles to Richmond's 42.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 26 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 47 |
| Fremantle | 28 | 21 | 37 | 22 | 108 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 360 | Disposals | **362** |
| 112 | Contested poss. | **129** |
| 33 | Clearances | **43** |
| 36 | Inside 50s | **65** |
| **104** | Marks | 98 |
| 4 | Marks inside 50 | **17** |
| 42 | Tackles | **62** |
| **42** | Hit-outs | 35 |
| 55 | Intercepts | **63** |
| 74.3% | Disposal eff. | **75.2%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 95% probability. The predicted margin of 53.9 was reasonable against the actual 61-point result. Fremantle led 39–49 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 61. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.10 (edge +3.8%) — model probability 94.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 54 · Predicted total: 167

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 28 · 39 | 34 · 37 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 75/g | 82/g |
| Inside 50s | 13/g | 13.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.5/g | 10/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.6% | 65.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 19 | 10 · 14 |
| Goal Assists | 1.8/g | 5/g |
| Disposals | 122/g | 166/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.5/g | 30.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 71.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 10 | 5 · 3 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 138/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.5/g | 8.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 76.9% | 82.3% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.48/g (lg 2.37) +5% · Key Forwards 3.58/g (lg 3.6) -1% · Forwards 4.12/g (lg 4.45) -7%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.76/g (lg 3.6) +32% · Midfielders 2.76/g (lg 2.37) +16% · Rucks 0.58/g (lg 0.5) +16%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Barossa Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 9 in 4g | 12/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·2·2·3·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Bauer | KF | 3 in 4g | 11/10g (1·2·1·2·0·2·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 3 in 3g | 15/10g (3·1·2·2·1·3·0·1·1·1) | 21/11g | 0/0g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.25 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Blight | DEF | 2 in 4g | 2/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 7/11g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·3·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·3·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/8g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.66 AI 79% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | no games | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·2·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 51% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Thomson Dow | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 18' |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 11 in 4g | 28/10g (2·5·1·3·3·3·1·4·3·3) | 10/4g | 0/0g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.75 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 10' 12' 52' 65' 77' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 6 in 4g | 18/10g (4·1·4·1·1·1·0·1·4·1) | 7/3g | 0/0g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 87% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 6 in 4g | 15/10g (0·3·1·1·3·1·2·0·1·3) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' 67' 75' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 5 in 4g | 5/4g (4·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 3 in 2g | 3/2g (2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (1·0·1·1·0·2·2·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 93' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 2 in 3g | 12/10g (2·1·0·1·2·3·1·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' 70' |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 1 in 4g | 8/10g (1·1·0·3·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | no games | 8/10g (3·0·2·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 49' 81' |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Joshua Draper | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | no games | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 26 ✗ |
| Jacob Hopper | 23.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 33 ✗ |
| Jayden Short | 23.5 | $1.85 | 63% | 25 ✗ |
| Thomson Dow ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.88 | 76% | 20 ✗ |
| Jack Ross | 18.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 12 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 17.5 | $1.89 | 50% | 20 ✗ |
| Kamdyn McIntosh ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 19 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 15.5 | $1.85 | 45% | 17 ✗ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | 32.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 29 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 31.5 | $1.88 | 42% | 31 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | 25.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 23 ✓ |
| Hayden Young | 22.5 | $1.87 | 41% | 18 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 22.5 | $1.85 | 35% | 16 ✓ |
| Jaeger O'Meara | 19.5 | $1.90 | 29% | 21 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson | 18.5 | $1.96 | 48% | 17 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 17.5 | $1.87 | 40% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)