AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 95% probability. The predicted margin of 53.9 was reasonable against the actual 61-point result. Fremantle led 39–49 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 61. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
5%
Fremantle
95%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 95%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Fremantle carry a 318-point ELO rating advantage (1516 vs 1197). Recent form favours Fremantle with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Richmond. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 53.9 points with a combined total of 167.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.10
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.8%
Line / Spread
Fremantle +42.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.8%
Total Points
Under 182.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | WLLLL | 71.8 |
Fremantle | WWLLL | 80.8 |
Avg Conceded
111.2
Richmond
90.2
Fremantle
Avg Margin
-39.4
Richmond
-9.4
Fremantle
Disposals
342.8
Richmond
355.8
Fremantle
Inside 50s
50.0
Richmond
50.0
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
95%
Fremantle predicted to win by 54 points
Predicted total: 167 · Line: -53.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.35
Team Effectiveness
+0.07
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.