# Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 97 – 118 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions surge back to run down Western Bulldogs from 33 down._

Half time: 62 – 29 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 15% / Brisbane Lions 85% · Norwood Oval · Sat, 12 Apr, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Aaron Naughton (2' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Ryley Sanders (9'), Rhylee West (31'), Lachlan Bramble (33'), Joel Freijah (43'), Sam Davidson (45'), Sam Darcy (52' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Matthew Kennedy (77'), Bailey Williams (78'), Lachlan McNeil (96') · Brisbane Lions: Logan Morris (8' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Wilmot (25'), Levi Ashcroft (37'), Eric Hipwood (72' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Zac Bailey (79' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Cam Rayner (87' ×2), Callum Ah Chee (69' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 85% | Won |
| Western Bulldogs | 15% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 24.9 predicted → 21 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Western Bulldogs 97–118 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 5 at Norwood Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half time at Norwood Oval had Western Bulldogs up 62-29, a lead that looked like a job half done. Brisbane Lions had other ideas. By the final siren it was Lions 118, Bulldogs 97, and the second half was where all of it happened.

The third quarter is where the game turned. Bulldogs added just 16 points after the break while Lions piled on 43, cutting the margin to six by three-quarter time, 78-72. Then Lions kept going, adding 46 in the last term to the Bulldogs' 19 and running out winners by 21. A 33-point lead turned into a 21-point loss. That's not a fade, that's a full reversal.

The disposal count tells you how it happened. Lions finished with 396 to the Bulldogs' 362, and used it better too, hitting targets at 73.3% against 68.2%. Contested possessions were close, 132-129 to the Bulldogs, and clearances were tight as well, 44-41 Lions. But once the ball was in hand, Brisbane were just more efficient with it, and over four quarters that gap compounds.

Where Lions really took over was overhead and around the ball. They won hit-outs 53-34, marks 102-78, and marks inside 50 by 15 to 9. Clean entries plus more grabs inside the forward line is a straightforward way to outscore someone, and it lines up with the second-half scoreboard. Add in 64 tackles to 39 and you've got a side that pressured the ball and made the most of it once they had it.

None of that matches the pre-match positional read. Western Bulldogs went in rated higher everywhere, midfield 1082 to 1046, forwards 1067 to 951, defence 1098 to 1012, ruck 1068 to 1034. Recent form backed that up too, Bulldogs averaging 96.3 points scored and just 86.3 conceded across their last five, with an average winning margin of 22.4. Brisbane's last-five numbers were leaner across the board, fewer wins, a bigger points-against average. On paper this was a Bulldogs day. On the day, the ruck and marking numbers flipped the form guide on its head.

Alphr's model still called the winner, rating Brisbane Lions to win at 85% and tipping them by 24.9 points against an actual margin of 21, a sharp read given the pre-match numbers pointed the other way on form. The total is where it missed. The model had this at 164 combined points; the teams put up 215, 51 more than forecast. Two out of three on this one: winner right, line covered, total well short.

Bulldogs will look at that third and fourth quarter and wonder where the pressure went. They had the disposal edge early enough to build a 33-point half-time buffer, but once Brisbane started winning the ball in the air and making more of their entries, the lead evaporated in a hurry.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 16 | 46 | 16 | 19 | 97 |
| Brisbane Lions | 21 | 8 | 43 | 46 | 118 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 362 | Disposals | **396** |
| **132** | Contested poss. | 129 |
| 41 | Clearances | **44** |
| 53 | Inside 50s | **54** |
| 78 | Marks | **102** |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **15** |
| 39 | Tackles | **64** |
| 34 | Hit-outs | **53** |
| 61 | Intercepts | **64** |
| 68.2% | Disposal eff. | **73.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 85% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Brisbane Lions by 24.9 vs the actual margin of 21 points. The game's 215 points came in 51 points higher than the predicted 164. Brisbane Lions trailed 62–29 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 97–118. The model went 2/3 on this match. Brisbane Lions covered the 12.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.52 (edge +18.8%) — model probability 84.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 25 · Predicted total: 164

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | OR | Brisbane Lions | 106 – 111 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R19 | Brisbane Lions | 86 – 76 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R13 | Western Bulldogs | 71 – 114 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2023 | R3 | Western Bulldogs | 67 – 53 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2022 | R16 | Brisbane Lions | 108 – 67 | Western Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 35 | 33 · 29 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 100/g | 76/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.5/g | 18.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.8/g | 8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.8% | 63.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 10 | 16 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 5.5/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 175/g | 167/g |
| Inside 50s | 31/g | 28/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.1% | 66.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 5 | 5 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 89/g | 118/g |
| Inside 50s | 8/g | 13.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.9% | 77.4% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.33/g (lg 4.45) -3% · Key Forwards 3.37/g (lg 3.6) -6% · Midfielders 2.14/g (lg 2.37) -10%
**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.49/g (lg 2.37) +5% · Rucks 0.47/g (lg 0.5) -6% · Forwards 3.98/g (lg 4.45) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Norwood Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 12 in 4g | 25/10g (1·1·1·7·2·1·1·4·2·5) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' 68' |
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 5 in 4g | 14/10g (0·2·0·2·2·3·3·0·1·1) | 12/8g | 0/0g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' 50' 66' |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 5 in 4g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 40% | — | 🏉 96' |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 5 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | James Harmes | MID | 3 in 4g | 10/10g (0·4·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 7/12g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 3 in 3g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 3 in 4g | 9/10g (4·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 58% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 42% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 6/15g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 1 in 4g | 8/10g (1·1·1·2·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 0 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dolan | FWD | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Liam Jones | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/7g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 9 in 4g | 15/10g (1·1·1·1·2·0·4·1·1·3) | 8/9g | 0/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' 75' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 7 in 4g | 14/10g (0·1·2·0·2·2·1·3·1·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 79% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 13' 75' 66' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 5 in 4g | 15/10g (0·0·2·1·3·4·1·3·0·1) | 4/7g | 0/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' 88' |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 5 in 4g | 9/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·1·2·1·1) | 23/10g | 3/1g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' 85' 94' 93' 95' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 4 in 2g | 18/10g (2·1·1·3·2·2·2·1·1·3) | 20/12g | 2/1g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 17/19g | 1/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 9/11g | 0/1g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 5/11g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Will McLachlan | FWD | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 1 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·3·0·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/6g | 0/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 87' 87' |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/14g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jack Payne | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Day | KF | 0 in 3g | 10/10g (0·0·1·3·3·1·2·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.49 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.88 | 73% | 24 ✓ |
| Bailey Dale ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 21 ✓ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 80% | 29 ✗ |
| Matthew Kennedy ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.83 | 72% | 27 ✗ |
| Bailey Williams | 18.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 19 ✗ |
| James Harmes ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 0 ✓ |
| Jason Johannisen | 17.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 9 ✓ |
| Ryley Sanders | 16.5 | $1.80 | 49% | 22 ✗ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $2.00 | 69% | 28 ✓ |
| Dayne Zorko | 26.5 | $2.00 | 58% | 23 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 26.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 22 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft | 25.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 31 ✗ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.99 | 63% | 32 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 19 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 62% | 16 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 18.5 | $1.90 | 45% | 22 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)