# North Melbourne v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 89 – 141 Gold Coast SUNS

_Gold Coast SUNS outshine North Melbourne._

Half time: 51 – 59 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 8% / Gold Coast SUNS 92% · Barossa Park · Sat, 12 Apr, 12:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Jy Simpkin (9' ×2), Jack Darling (14' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Paul Curtis (20' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Larkey (44' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Zane Duursma (47' ×2), Harry Sheezel (51'), Jacob Konstanty (79') · Gold Coast SUNS: Ben Ainsworth (1' 1st), Will Graham (7'), Ben King (12' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Ben Long (18' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Touk Miller (31'), Sam Flanders (38' ×2), Jed Walter (63' Tipped ⚡), Joel Jeffrey (88'), Lachie Weller (99'), Matt Rowell (101'), Jake Rogers (67'), John Noble (72'), Ethan Read (84' Tipped ⚡), Nick Holman (95')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 92% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 8% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 30.3 predicted → 52 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

North Melbourne 89–141 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 5 at Barossa Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne never led. That's the first thing worth knowing about this one. Gold Coast SUNS were up 37-25 at the first change at Barossa Park and stayed in front the rest of the way, but for a while it looked like a game North could hang in.

By half time the margin was down to eight points, 59-51, with North outscoring the SUNS 26 to 22 in the second term. That's the version of this match where North keeps chipping away and makes it a contest deep into the last quarter. It didn't happen.

The SUNS scored 35 points to North's 24 in the third quarter, stretching the lead to 19 at the last change, 94-75. Then they buried it. Gold Coast added 47 points in the final term to North's 14, turning a manageable gap into a 52-point rout. Final score: Gold Coast SUNS 141, North Melbourne 89.

The stat sheet explains why the SUNS could turn it on late. They won contested possession 141 to 125 and clearances 45 to 42, and they went inside 50 sixty-five times against North's 47. That's an eighteen-entry gap, and it's the kind of pressure that eventually cracks a defence. North's own defensive rating (921) was always the softer link against Gold Coast's 1002 coming in, and 65 inside-50s against it is exactly the mismatch the model would have flagged.

North actually won a few of the shop-window numbers. More disposals, 372 to 359. More tackles, 58 to 52. Marginally better disposal efficiency, 76.3 to 76.1. None of it mattered much when the SUNS were generating so many more forward-half opportunities and winning the hit-out count 46 to 38 off a bigger ruck edge, 968 to 959 pre-match. Territory and repeat entries did the damage, not the ball-use stats.

Form lines back up the gap. Gold Coast came in averaging a plus-25.5 margin over their last five, North averaging minus-4.6. This result sits close to that trend rather than against it. Whatever North had building in the first half didn't hold, and the SUNS forward pressure just kept coming.

Alphr's model backed Gold Coast SUNS at 92 percent, and that part landed fine. The margin was the miss. Pre-match the model had the SUNS by 30.3 in a 172-point game. Reality delivered a 52-point win in a 230-point shootout, 58 points more scoring than forecast. Two from three on the card, and the SUNS covered the 26.5 handily.

North had it competitive for a half. Then Gold Coast simply out-worked them at the source, more clearances, more forward entries, more contested footy, and the last quarter turned a tight scoreboard into a laugher. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one was mostly a miss for the margin model.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 25 | 26 | 24 | 14 | 89 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 37 | 22 | 35 | 47 | 141 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **372** | Disposals | 359 |
| 125 | Contested poss. | **141** |
| 42 | Clearances | **45** |
| 47 | Inside 50s | **65** |
| **71** | Marks | 69 |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **58** | Tackles | 52 |
| 38 | Hit-outs | **46** |
| 51 | Intercepts | **54** |
| **76.3%** | Disposal eff. | 76.1% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 92% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 30.3 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 230 points came in 58 points higher than the predicted 172. Gold Coast SUNS led 51–59 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 52. The model went 2/3 on this match. Gold Coast SUNS covered the 26.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.22 (edge +10.2%) — model probability 92.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +26.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 30 · Predicted total: 172

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 34 · 41 | 43 · 24 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 8.7/g |
| Disposals | 93/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.5/g | 24.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.5/g | 14/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.2% | 66.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 16 | 5 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 139/g | 117/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.8/g | 23/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.1% | 65.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 4 | 3 · 1 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposals | 153/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 14/g | 16.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.6% | 77.1% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.59/g (lg 1.33) +20% · Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.51) +8% · Key Forwards 3.61/g (lg 3.6) +0%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.74/g (lg 0.51) +45% · Forwards 5.8/g (lg 4.44) +31% · Key Forwards 4.58/g (lg 3.6) +27%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Barossa Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 14 in 4g | 26/10g (2·3·5·1·1·0·5·3·4·2) | 21/10g | 0/0g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' 85' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 10 in 4g | 18/10g (3·1·0·3·0·1·3·3·2·2) | 4/5g | 0/0g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 62' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 7 in 4g | 10/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·4·1·1) | 7/9g | 0/0g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 4 in 4g | 9/10g (1·0·1·1·0·2·1·2·1·0) | 28/15g | 0/0g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 70' |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 3 in 4g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·3·1·1·1·0) | 4/11g | 0/0g | 48% | — | 🏉 9' 93' |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 3 in 4g | 14/10g (2·3·3·0·0·3·0·1·0·2) | 10/14g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.90 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Tucker | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 0 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·2·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zac Fisher | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | no games | 7/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | — | 🏉 47' 74' |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 12 in 3g | 24/10g (2·0·1·3·3·2·1·6·4·2) | 16/7g | 0/0g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 24' 83' 92' 87' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 7 in 3g | 16/10g (1·1·1·3·0·0·3·4·1·2) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 37' 100' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 6 in 3g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·3·1) | 6/16g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 5 in 3g | 9/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·2·1·2·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 53% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 4 in 3g | 7/7g (1·2·0·0·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 84' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 4 in 2g | 8/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·3) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 23% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·2·2·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 99' |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 4/14g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 1 in 2g | 10/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·2·2·1·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 40% | — | 🏉 38' 80' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 16/11g | 0/0g | 64% | — | 🏉 1' |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 2g | 9/10g (1·0·0·0·3·4·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 101' |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 40% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 29.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 27 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.90 | 83% | 32 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $2.00 | 62% | 26 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 23.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 24 ✗ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 20 ✓ |
| Luke Parker ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 70% | 24 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher | 19.5 | $1.86 | 54% | 8 ✓ |
| Tristan Xerri | 17.5 | $1.82 | 53% | 9 ✓ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 27 ✓ |
| Sam Flanders | 27.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 21 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.73 | 74% | 26 ✓ |
| Touk Miller | 24.5 | $1.83 | 61% | 27 ✗ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 16 ✓ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 72% | 28 ✗ |
| Bailey Humphrey ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.70 | 88% | 14 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.84 | 71% | 20 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)