AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 92% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 30.3 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 230 points came in 58 points higher than the predicted 172. Gold Coast SUNS led 51–59 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 52. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
8%
Gold Coast SUNS
92%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 92%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 40-point ELO rating advantage (1471 vs 1431). The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 30.3 points with a combined total of 172.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.2%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +26.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.2%
Total Points
Under 180.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | W W W L L | 80.3 |
Gold Coast SUNS | W W W L L | 82.7 |
Avg Conceded
75.7
North Melbourne
87.0
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
-4.6
North Melbourne
25.5
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
374.0
North Melbourne
333.4
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
54.3
North Melbourne
54.1
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
92%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 30 points
Predicted total: 172 · Line: -30.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.20
Team Effectiveness
+0.07
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.