# St Kilda v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 82 – 110 GWS GIANTS

_GWS GIANTS dwarf St Kilda._

Half time: 34 – 54 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 15% / GWS GIANTS 85% · Norwood Oval · Sun, 13 Apr, 03:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Ryan Byrnes (6'), Cooper Sharman (8' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Mason Wood (13'), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (19' ×3), Max Hall (85'), Final quarter (30m 0s)Jack Sinclair (64'), Jack Higgins (68' ×2 Tipped ⚡) · GWS GIANTS: Toby Greene (3' ×4 1st Tipped 🎯), Jake Stringer (16' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jacob Wehr (22'), Jesse Hogan (26' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Jones (40'), Callan Ward (59'), Aaron Cadman (74' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harvey Thomas (87'), Jake Riccardi (94' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 85% | Won |
| St Kilda | 15% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 22.0 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs GWS GIANTS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

St Kilda 82–110 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 5 at Norwood Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

GWS GIANTS spent the day controlling the footy. St Kilda spent it running after it. That contrast, patience against ambition, decided the match well before the final siren, and the scoreboard at Norwood Oval reflected it: GWS GIANTS 110, St Kilda 82.

The ladder of the game tells the story in four snapshots. Quarter time had GWS GIANTS up 27 to 25, next to nothing in it. By half time that had stretched to 54 to 34. Three-quarter time was 105 to 55, effectively a wipeout by then, and the final margin settled at 28 points. St Kilda never led at any of the recorded breaks.

Look at how each side actually used the footy and the gap makes sense. GWS GIANTS finished with 377 disposals to St Kilda's 350, and did more with the ball in hand, hitting targets at 74.5% compared to St Kilda's 70.2%. That efficiency gap matters more than the raw disposal count. St Kilda were the busier side going forward, racking up 62 inside 50s to 51, but busy isn't the same as productive. GWS GIANTS turned their fewer entries into 16 marks inside 50 against St Kilda's 14, and marked the ball overall at a much higher clip, 105 times to 79. St Kilda were doing the running, GWS GIANTS were doing the finishing.

The ruck battle explains a lot of that efficiency gap. Hit-outs went 45 to 22 in the Giants' favour, a lopsided number that fed straight into general play. Contested possessions followed the same pattern, 125 to 112 to GWS GIANTS, and clearances too, 38 to 35. First use of the ball out of stoppages set up cleaner disposal chains all day.

St Kilda's forward pressure showed up in the intercept count too, sort of. They picked off 63 intercepts to GWS GIANTS's 67, which isn't a bad return, but it wasn't enough to offset how often the ball came back the other way through turnovers and marks. Tackles were close, 51 to 57, so it wasn't a lack of defensive effort from St Kilda. It was more that GWS GIANTS simply held the footy longer and more securely.

The pre-match numbers actually flagged some of this. GWS GIANTS came in rated stronger in defence, 986 to 915, and stronger up forward too, 1028 to 954, despite St Kilda holding a narrow edge in the midfield rating, 1027 to 975, and an even narrower one in the ruck, 972 to 968. On the day, none of that midfield or ruck edge on paper translated to the stoppages, where GWS GIANTS dominated regardless of the numbers going in.

St Kilda's day was built on volume. More disposals attempted relative to their output, more inside 50s, more territory gained without cashing it in. GWS GIANTS's day was built on control: fewer wasted possessions, more marks, more clean use inside attacking 50. When one team controls the footy that consistently, the scoreline tends to follow it rather than the raw territory count, and at Norwood Oval that's exactly what happened.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 25 | 9 | 21 | 27 | 82 |
| GWS GIANTS | 27 | 27 | 51 | 5 | 110 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 350 | Disposals | **377** |
| 112 | Contested poss. | **125** |
| 35 | Clearances | **38** |
| **62** | Inside 50s | 51 |
| 79 | Marks | **105** |
| 14 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| 51 | Tackles | **57** |
| 22 | Hit-outs | **45** |
| 63 | Intercepts | **67** |
| 70.2% | Disposal eff. | **74.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 85% probability. The predicted margin of 22.0 was reasonable against the actual 28-point result. The game's 192 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 159. GWS GIANTS led 34–54 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 2/3 on this match. GWS GIANTS covered the 12.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.50 (edge +18.2%) — model probability 84.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 22 · Predicted total: 159

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 34 | 42 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposals | 63/g | 106/g |
| Inside 50s | 11/g | 23.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.8/g | 10.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.3% | 67.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 16 | 11 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 4.8/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 180/g | 148/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.5/g | 21/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.5/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.5% | 69.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 1 | 2 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 16/g | 9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.8% | 82.1% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.5) +2% · Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.32) -5% · Forwards 4.2/g (lg 4.45) -6%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.33/g (lg 2.37) -2% · Forwards 3.98/g (lg 4.45) -11% · Key Forwards 3.2/g (lg 3.6) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Norwood Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 12 in 4g | 21/10g (1·2·0·1·3·2·2·4·3·3) | 13/8g | 2/1g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' 92' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 8 in 4g | 14/10g (3·0·0·0·1·2·2·2·3·1) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 58% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 8 in 3g | 13/10g (0·1·1·0·1·2·0·2·4·2) | 3/3g | 1/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Lance Collard | DEF | 5 in 3g | 5/6g (0·0·0·2·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 5 in 4g | 5/4g (2·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 75% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 3 in 2g | 16/10g (2·2·2·3·0·2·2·0·2·1) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 57' 70' |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 6/13g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 6/12g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 49% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 19' 78' 67' |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 1 in 4g | 9/10g (0·1·2·3·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/7g | 1/1g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Angus Hastie | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 0 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·3·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 55% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 0 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·3·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Zak Jones | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 13 in 2g | 45/10g (4·4·5·3·6·2·3·5·4·9) | 29/11g | 2/1g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.25 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 48' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 9 in 4g | 20/10g (3·1·2·2·0·3·1·3·2·3) | 18/15g | 3/1g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 37' 72' 80' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 4 in 4g | 15/10g (1·3·1·2·3·1·0·2·1·1) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' 88' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 4 in 4g | 9/10g (1·2·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 64% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 3 in 3g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2) | 2/6g | 0/1g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Callan Ward | MID | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/13g | 1/1g | 38% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (3·2·0·2·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 1 in 1g | 13/10g (4·1·0·2·2·1·1·1·0·1) | 5/4g | 0/0g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 94' |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Conor Stone | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/9g | 2/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | no games | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 41% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 0 in 2g | 11/10g (1·0·1·1·4·1·1·2·0·0) | 29/13g | 0/0g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 77' |
| – | Josh Kelly | MID | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Macrae ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.88 | 77% | 17 ✓ |
| Jack Sinclair | 25.5 | $1.89 | 53% | 26 ✗ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 25.5 | $1.75 | 63% | 24 ✓ |
| Jack Steele ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.97 | 70% | 20 ✓ |
| Rowan Marshall ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 67% | 12 ✓ |
| Zak Jones | 19.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 13 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager | 18.5 | $1.80 | 65% | 25 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilson | 17.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 13 ✓ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green | 31.5 | $1.98 | 59% | 28 ✓ |
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 24 ✓ |
| Josh Kelly | 25.5 | $1.89 | 60% | 28 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.96 | 64% | 24 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 65% | 33 ✗ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 14 ✓ |
| Toby Greene ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.78 | 69% | 17 ✓ |
| Connor Idun | 17.5 | $1.98 | 56% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)