AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 85% probability. The predicted margin of 22.0 was reasonable against the actual 28-point result. The game's 192 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 159. GWS GIANTS led 34–54 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
15%
GWS GIANTS
85%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 85%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. St Kilda are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors — including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage — but GWS GIANTS counter with ELO Difference and Defensive ELO which tips the scales. GWS GIANTS carry a 92-point ELO rating advantage (1640 vs 1549). Recent form favours St Kilda with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for GWS GIANTS. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 22.0 points with a combined total of 159.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.2%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.2%
Total Points
Under 168.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | WWWWL | 94.0 |
GWS GIANTS | WWWLL | 95.4 |
Avg Conceded
85.0
St Kilda
71.6
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
9.0
St Kilda
23.8
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
365.2
St Kilda
372.6
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
50.0
St Kilda
50.0
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
85%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 22 points
Predicted total: 159 · Line: -22.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.35
Team Effectiveness
-0.20
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.