# Richmond v St Kilda — AFL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 52 – 56 St Kilda

_St Kilda survive a scare against Richmond._

Half time: 29 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 16% / St Kilda 84% · MCG · Sat, 09 Aug, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Rhyan Mansell (23' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harry Armstrong (48' Tipped ⚡), Kamdyn McIntosh (75'), Tim Taranto (86'), Tom Lynch (67' Tipped ⚡) · St Kilda: Jack Higgins (14' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Cooper Sharman (18' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (44'), Max Hall (64' Tipped ⚡), Jack Sinclair (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 84% | Won |
| Richmond | 16% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 37.3 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Richmond 52–56 St Kilda in AFL Round 22 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda 56, Richmond 52. Four points in it, and the scoreboard tells a proper rollercoaster story.

St Kilda jumped early, up 20 to 6 at quarter time. Richmond hauled themselves back into it through the middle of the game, only down 33 to 29 at the main break, then took the lead outright by three-quarter time, 44 to 36. Eight points clear, heading into the last change, looking like the home side had done the hard work. Then St Kilda put on 20 unanswered-looking points to Richmond's 8 in the final term and walked out with the four-point win. That's a big last quarter to lose after leading it.

The hit-out count says Richmond should have controlled that final stanza. Damien Cook's opposite numbers weren't needed, Richmond dominated the ruck 41 hit-outs to 26, and turned that into a clearance edge too, 36 to 31. On paper that's the sort of platform that closes games out. It didn't, because St Kilda simply had the ball more and did more with it. 394 disposals to 332, and a disposal efficiency gap of 75.3% to 68.3% that matters a lot more than raw clearance count when you're the team defending a lead.

Marks tell the same story from a different angle. St Kilda finished with 151 to Richmond's 100, and inside forward 50 it was 12 to 7. That's a side taking the simple option and hitting the target when it counted, not just crashing the ball forward and hoping. Add in 80 tackles to Richmond's 41 and you've got a team that pressured the ball carrier relentlessly while still finding time to use it cleanly. Usually you get one or the other. St Kilda got both.

Going in, the ruck rating had Richmond well on top, 1036 to 968, and that showed up in the hit-out count exactly as expected. But St Kilda's defence rating, 967 to Richmond's 949, was the quieter edge that ended up mattering more, because it's their pressure and ball use that swung the final term. St Kilda arrived on the back of three wins from their last five and an average score near 103 points, so a side building form and comfortable scoring heavily. Richmond's recent form had them defending better on average but scoring less, and when the game got tight in that last quarter, St Kilda's scoring habit won out.

Alphr's model had St Kilda favourites at 84% and picked the right side. The margin read was well off though, tipping St Kilda by 37.3 in a game that finished by 4, and the total was out too, tipped at 137 with the game landing on 108. Still, all three picks, winner, and both sides of that combined framing, landed. Not a clean read on the numbers, but the right team walked off with the four points.

Richmond will look at that third quarter lead and wonder how they let it slip once the ruck dominance stopped translating into scoreboard control. St Kilda will just take the width of it. Four points is four points.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 6 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 52 |
| St Kilda | 20 | 13 | 3 | 20 | 56 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 332 | Disposals | **394** |
| **120** | Contested poss. | 109 |
| **36** | Clearances | 31 |
| 40 | Inside 50s | **43** |
| 100 | Marks | **151** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **12** |
| 41 | Tackles | **80** |
| **41** | Hit-outs | 26 |
| 56 | Intercepts | **61** |
| 68.3% | Disposal eff. | **75.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 37.3 but the actual margin was 4 points. The game's 108 points came in 29 points lower than the predicted 137. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.36 (edge +10.8%) — model probability 84.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 162.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 37 · Predicted total: 137

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 117 · 178 | 142 · 178 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 80/g | 69/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.8/g | 11.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.2/g | 6.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.7% | 69.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 39 · 72 | 64 · 75 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 167/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.3/g | 23.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 69.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 26 | 29 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 134/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.9/g | 13.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.5% | 77.7% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.49/g (lg 2.39) +4% · Forwards 4.21/g (lg 4.42) -5% · Key Forwards 3.4/g (lg 3.62) -6%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.58/g (lg 3.62) +27% · Rucks 0.59/g (lg 0.51) +16% · Midfielders 2.74/g (lg 2.39) +15%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 23 in 19g | 9/10g (3·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·2·0) | 3/3g | 16/22g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 19 in 13g | 16/10g (1·2·3·0·2·2·2·0·3·1) | 27/13g | 150/67g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 14 in 17g | 9/10g (1·0·0·0·1·3·0·3·0·1) | 0/6g | 25/41g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 55' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 14 in 19g | 9/10g (0·2·2·1·0·0·0·1·3·0) | 5/12g | 30/48g | 46% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 10 in 17g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 9/13g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 6 in 20g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 2/8g | 8/38g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 6 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 32/113g | 22% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 6 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/14g | 26/90g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Harry Armstrong | KF | 5 in 5g | 5/5g (0·2·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 2/2g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.49 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 5 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/21g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 7/48g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 16/28g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/24g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/15g | 18/101g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 3/2g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/17g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/17g | 29/87g | 26% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/11g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 25/55g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 7/38g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/91g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/16g | 16/139g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 41 in 20g | 13/10g (0·1·1·0·1·2·0·2·4·2) | 13/8g | 42/32g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 14' 51' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 27 in 18g | 13/10g (3·0·1·1·0·1·2·2·2·1) | 5/5g | 5/5g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 78' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 20 in 18g | 8/10g (0·0·1·3·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 15/13g | 5/10g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 59% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 20 in 20g | 11/10g (0·2·0·1·1·3·3·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 1/1g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 15 in 20g | 9/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·4·0) | 0/6g | 1/8g | 30% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 9 in 15g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 1/3g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 9 in 20g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 12/11g | 6/14g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 8 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 7/20g | 28% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/18g | 43/63g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 3/5g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/16g | 4/19g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/8g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Max Heath | RUC | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 4/6g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 2 in 5g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/5g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Clark | DEF | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 6/24g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/18g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Jones | MID | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/15g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper | 26.5 | $1.81 | 63% | 20 ✓ |
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 23 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia | 22.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 18 ✓ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.90 | 77% | 19 ✓ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 19 ✓ |
| Jack Ross ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 26 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 20.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 19 ✓ |
| Toby Nankervis | 16.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 15 ✓ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 33.5 | $1.95 | 50% | 33 ✓ |
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 30 ✗ |
| Jack Macrae | 25.5 | $1.88 | 45% | 26 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager | 23.5 | $1.88 | 52% | 32 ✗ |
| Jack Steele | 22.5 | $1.91 | 41% | 17 ✓ |
| Hunter Clark ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 74% | 22 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall | 19.5 | $1.88 | 45% | 21 ✗ |
| Zak Jones ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 13 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill | 19.5 | $1.87 | 32% | 24 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r22-richmond-v-st-kilda
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)