Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
40%
Western Bulldogs
60%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Melbourne are far from out of this at 40%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Western Bulldogs carry a 27-point ELO rating advantage (1553 vs 1526). The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 7.8 points with a combined total of 178.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.9%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +24.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.9%
Total Points
Under 178.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | W W W L L | 98.3 |
Western Bulldogs | W W W L L | 76.2 |
Avg Conceded
81.5
Melbourne
79.2
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
25.6
Melbourne
26.4
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
338.5
Melbourne
367.1
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
46.5
Melbourne
42.4
Western Bulldogs
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 178 · Line: -7.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.01
Team Effectiveness
+0.21
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.