AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 92% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 31.5 but the actual margin was 6 points. The game's 178 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 154. Fremantle trailed 53–51 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 86–92. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
8%
Fremantle
92%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 92%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Port Adelaide carry a 45-point ELO rating advantage (1580 vs 1535). The margin model predicts Fremantle by 31.5 points with a combined total of 154.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.5%
Line / Spread
Fremantle +20.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.5%
Total Points
Under 164.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | W W W L L | 81.9 |
Fremantle | W W W L L | 93.6 |
Avg Conceded
77.7
Port Adelaide
74.4
Fremantle
Avg Margin
16.9
Port Adelaide
7.0
Fremantle
Disposals
333.8
Port Adelaide
366.4
Fremantle
Inside 50s
47.3
Port Adelaide
47.0
Fremantle
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1580 vs 1535), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.33).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
92%
Fremantle predicted to win by 31 points
Predicted total: 154 · Line: -31.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.24
Team Effectiveness
+0.19
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.