# Port Adelaide v Fremantle — AFL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 86 – 92 Fremantle

_Fremantle hit back to topple Port Adelaide._

Half time: 53 – 51 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 8% / Fremantle 92% · Adelaide Oval · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Mitch Georgiades (37' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Joe Richards (38'), Jed McEntee (43' ×2), Jack Lukosius (48' ×2), Connor Rozee (50' ×2), Willie Rioli (52' Tipped ⚡), Aliir Aliir (62'), Joe Berry (68'), Final quarter (30m 50s)Willie Rioli (70') · Fremantle: Shai Bolton (12' 1st Tipped ⚡), Josh Treacy (19' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Michael Frederick (21' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Caleb Serong (44'), Patrick Voss (58' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Murphy Reid (77' ×2), Alex Pearce (95')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 92% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 8% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 31.5 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Port Adelaide 86–92 Fremantle in AFL Round 22 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle trailed by eight points at three-quarter time and needed something in the last twenty minutes. They found it. Port Adelaide managed just 12 points in the final term while Fremantle piled on 26, turning a 74-66 deficit into a 92-86 win by the final siren.

That last-quarter form reversal is the whole story. Port Adelaide had led 74-66 at the last change after building through the middle two quarters, outscoring Fremantle 49-22 in the second term to flip an early 25-point hole from quarter time, when they trailed 29-4. Fremantle steadied at half-time, down just two, 53-51, then weathered another Port push in the third before the final quarter turned everything on its head.

The clearance count tells you why Fremantle could keep asking questions. They won clearances 43-25, a gap that let them dictate access to the ball when it mattered most, particularly in that decisive last term. Port Adelaide's ruck division did its job, winning hit-outs 34-23, but hit-outs without clearances to match are just taps into space. Fremantle turned first use into territory, going inside 50 fifty-four times to Port's forty-six, and made it count with cleaner ball movement, hitting targets at 75.4% disposal efficiency against Port's 71.4%.

Port Adelaide's defence had rated the stronger unit coming in, 1131 to Fremantle's 1064, and for large stretches it looked it. They out-marked Fremantle heavily, 107 to 76, and brought serious heat with 56 tackles to 39. But defence built on marks and tackles still needs the ball won cleanly further up the ground, and that's where Fremantle's edge in the engine room, rated 1065 to 1030 in the midfield, showed up when it counted.

Fremantle's form heading in backed a team capable of exactly this kind of finish. Their average score of 93.6 across the last five matches was well clear of Port's 81.9, and while their average margin of just 7.0 points suggested tight finishes rather than blowouts, that's precisely what turned up at Adelaide Oval. Port's own recent form, an average margin of 16.9, hinted at a side that could get big leads but hadn't been tested in close finishes the way Fremantle had.

Alphr's model backed Fremantle at 92% to win, and got the result right. The margin was a different matter. Picking Fremantle by 31.5 points, the model was off by more than 25 once the final six-point margin came in, and the 178 points scored ran 24 clear of the projected total of 154. Two from three isn't a bad return on a game that swung as hard as this one did, but the size of Port's third-term rally, and how little Fremantle needed in the last quarter to get home, wasn't in the script.

In the end it came down to who could still find the ball when the game was on the line. Fremantle could. Port Adelaide, for one final quarter, couldn't.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 4 | 49 | 21 | 12 | 86 |
| Fremantle | 29 | 22 | 15 | 26 | 92 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| **351** | Disposals | 342 |
| 126 | Contested poss. | **127** |
| 25 | Clearances | **43** |
| 46 | Inside 50s | **54** |
| **107** | Marks | 76 |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **56** | Tackles | 39 |
| **34** | Hit-outs | 23 |
| **69** | Intercepts | 64 |
| 71.4% | Disposal eff. | **75.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 92% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 31.5 but the actual margin was 6 points. The game's 178 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 154. Fremantle trailed 53–51 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 86–92. The model went 2/3 on this match. Fremantle covered the 20.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.33 (edge +16.5%) — model probability 91.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +20.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 32 · Predicted total: 154

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 144 · 178 | 165 · 148 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 99/g | 76/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.9/g | 15.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8/g | 7.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 68.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 36 · 64 | 73 · 56 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 141/g | 157/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.2/g | 28.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.5% | 69.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 28 | 15 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 111/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.7/g | 8.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.2% | 80.8% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.45/g (lg 2.39) +3% · Key Forwards 3.44/g (lg 3.62) -5% · Forwards 4.08/g (lg 4.41) -7%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.46/g (lg 1.25) +17% · Forwards 4.58/g (lg 4.41) +4% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 51 in 20g | 30/10g (3·1·7·1·5·4·3·2·1·3) | 10/5g | 92/49g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' 41' |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 25 in 16g | 15/10g (1·2·0·2·2·1·1·3·3·0) | 10/7g | 60/36g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 18 in 19g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 44/118g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 12 in 19g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 9/11g | 47% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 10 in 12g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/2g | 17/16g | 61% | — | — |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 8 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 76/81g | 34% | — | 🏉 50' 92' |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | 6 in 6g | 10/10g (2·0·0·2·1·0·3·0·2·0) | 4/5g | 4/9g | 60% | — | 🏉 48' 79' |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 9/20g | 65/134g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 3/19g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 3/32g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jed McEntee | FWD | 3 in 3g | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·2·1) | 2/3g | 15/29g | 58% | — | 🏉 43' 75' |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/6g | 24/60g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/17g | 54/135g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 22% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Will Lorenz | DEF | 2 in 4g | 2/6g (0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 10/71g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 30/74g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/63g | 0% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/24g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/17g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Mani Liddy | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 35 in 20g | 12/10g (0·0·0·3·3·2·1·0·0·3) | 3/4g | 5/5g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' 54' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 28 in 20g | 13/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·2·2·3·3) | 4/4g | 4/3g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 78% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 28 in 16g | 22/10g (1·3·3·1·0·1·1·6·3·3) | 3/2g | 0/0g | 85% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' 74' 82' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 26 in 20g | 11/10g (1·1·0·2·0·1·2·0·4·0) | 5/4g | 2/3g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 71' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 23 in 19g | 11/10g (1·3·1·2·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 13/12g | 11/12g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 20 in 20g | 10/10g (4·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 4/1g | 0/0g | 70% | — | 🏉 77' 83' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 16 in 17g | 13/10g (1·0·2·3·2·2·0·1·1·1) | 6/8g | 5/9g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 13 in 14g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·2·1·1·0·1·2) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 71% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 11 in 14g | 10/10g (0·1·0·2·1·1·3·0·1·1) | 6/7g | 3/7g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 6 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 6 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/6g | 34% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 4 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 6/6g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/8g | 14% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/8g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nat Fyfe | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 14/14g | 9/11g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.85 | 69% | 29 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines | 27.5 | $1.77 | 59% | 25 ✓ |
| Connor Rozee | 25.5 | $1.92 | 48% | 19 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 25 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 18.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 17 ✓ |
| Travis Boak | 17.5 | $1.90 | 42% | 22 ✗ |
| Joe Richards | 14.5 | $1.98 | 52% | 13 ✓ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.80 | 66% | 23 ✓ |
| Caleb Serong | 27.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 28 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark | 24.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 20 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 20.5 | $1.80 | 49% | 17 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson | 19.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 23 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 18.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 19 ✗ |
| Jaeger O'Meara | 18.5 | $1.76 | 48% | 26 ✗ |
| Murphy Reid | 14.5 | $1.89 | 52% | 14 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)