AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 92% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 31.5 but the actual margin was 6 points. The game's 178 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 154. Fremantle trailed 53–51 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 86–92. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
8%
Fremantle
92%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 92%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Fremantle carry a 289-point ELO rating advantage (1675 vs 1387). Recent form favours Fremantle with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 31.5 points with a combined total of 154.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.5%
Line / Spread
Fremantle +20.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.5%
Total Points
Under 164.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | WLLLL | 65.6 |
Fremantle | WWWWL | 91.8 |
Avg Conceded
110.8
Port Adelaide
76.0
Fremantle
Avg Margin
-45.2
Port Adelaide
15.8
Fremantle
Disposals
319.8
Port Adelaide
333.0
Fremantle
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
50.0
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
92%
Fremantle predicted to win by 31 points
Predicted total: 154 · Line: -31.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.24
Team Effectiveness
+0.19
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.