AI Game Review
Sydney Swans defied the model's 81% prediction for Brisbane Lions, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 20.7 but the actual margin was 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 168.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
81%
Sydney Swans
19%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 81%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sydney Swans. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 20.7 points with a combined total of 173.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.27
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.3%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -22.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.3%
Total Points
Over 168.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | W W L L L | 78.5 |
Sydney Swans | W W W L L | 73.7 |
Avg Conceded
99.3
Brisbane Lions
76.7
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
17.5
Brisbane Lions
-2.8
Sydney Swans
Disposals
340.4
Brisbane Lions
370.9
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
55.1
Brisbane Lions
44.9
Sydney Swans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
81%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 21 points
Predicted total: 173 · Line: +20.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.30
Team Effectiveness
+0.16
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.