# Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 90 – 92 Sydney Swans

_Sydney Swans hold off a fast-finishing Brisbane Lions._

Half time: 46 – 55 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 81% / Sydney Swans 19% · Gabba · Sat, 09 Aug, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Logan Morris (10' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Wilmot (30' ×2), Will McLachlan (40'), Levi Ashcroft (84'), Henry Smith (85'), Zac Bailey (91' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Callum Ah Chee (94') · Sydney Swans: Isaac Heeney (5' ×5 1st Tipped 🎯), Braeden Campbell (15'), Angus Sheldrick (17'), Jack Buller (25' Tipped ⚡), Chad Warner (27' ×2), Oliver Florent (76'), James Rowbottom (78'), Brodie Grundy (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 81% | Lost |
| Sydney Swans | 19% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 20.7 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Brisbane Lions 90–92 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 22 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sydney Swans led from the opening term and never gave it up, but this one came down to a last-quarter scramble that very nearly changed everything.

The Swans were up 33-21 at quarter time and stretched that further by half time, 55-46. Then came the passage that looked like it settled things: a 20-point term that took them to 81-61 at the last change. At that point Brisbane Lions had every reason to be worried. Instead they produced 29 points to Sydney's 11 in the final quarter, a genuine avalanche, and still came up two points short, 92-90.

That final-term surge wasn't a fluke. Brisbane dominated the clearance count all day, 40 to 21, and piled forward relentlessly with 65 inside 50s to Sydney's 52. For three quarters that pressure wasn't converting into scoreboard pressure. In the fourth it finally did, just too late to matter.

Sydney's method was efficiency, not volume. They finished with fewer inside 50s but more marks inside forward 50, 18 to 10, which tells you plenty: Brisbane got the ball forward more often, Sydney did more with fewer looks. Sydney also won the contested ball, 119 to 104, and read the intercept battle better all afternoon, 72 to 63. Brisbane had 121 marks to Sydney's 92, evidence of a team playing a lot of the game in open space without always turning that territory into points.

The ruck battle told part of the forward-50 story. Brisbane's ruck rating of 1040 against Sydney's 974 was the biggest positional gap on the sheet, and it showed in the clearance numbers. But Sydney's midfield, rated 974 to Brisbane's 956 coming in, held up where it counted, and their defence matched Brisbane's near enough, 973 to 974.

Form lines pointed to a tighter contest than the pre-match rating suggested. Sydney arrived on 2.93 wins from their last five against Brisbane's 1.80, and were conceding just 76.7 points a game to Brisbane's 99.3. Brisbane's average margin over that stretch, plus 17.5, said dominant team. Their average of 55 inside 50s a game lined up with what actually happened here. None of it quite prepared for a two-point classic.

Alphr's model had Brisbane at 81% and expected them to win by 20.7.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 21 | 25 | 15 | 29 | 90 |
| Sydney Swans | 33 | 22 | 26 | 11 | 92 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 377 | Disposals | **387** |
| 104 | Contested poss. | **119** |
| **40** | Clearances | 21 |
| **65** | Inside 50s | 52 |
| **121** | Marks | 92 |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **18** |
| **42** | Tackles | 36 |
| 29 | Hit-outs | **35** |
| 63 | Intercepts | **72** |
| **74.4%** | Disposal eff. | 73.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Sydney Swans defied the model's 81% prediction for Brisbane Lions, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 20.7 but the actual margin was 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 168.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.27 (edge +2.3%) — model probability 81.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -22.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 21 · Predicted total: 173

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | QE | Sydney Swans | 141 – 88 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2026 | R16 | Brisbane Lions | 126 – 83 | Sydney Swans |
| 2026 | R1 | Sydney Swans | 104 – 60 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | R1 | Sydney Swans | 82 – 86 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2024 | PF | Sydney Swans | 60 – 120 | Brisbane Lions |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 177 · 164 | 119 · 153 |
| Goal Assists | 4.4/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 86/g | 99/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.6/g | 15.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.5/g | 7.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.5% | 69.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 61 · 48 | 87 · 62 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 163/g | 145/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.1/g | 24.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 66.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 20 · 22 | 17 · 25 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 107/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.6/g | 12.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.9% | 78% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.6/g (lg 0.51) +18% · Midfielders 2.37/g (lg 2.39) -1% · Forwards 4.29/g (lg 4.41) -3%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.52/g (lg 4.41) +2% · Key Forwards 3.34/g (lg 3.62) -8% · Midfielders 2.08/g (lg 2.39) -13%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 40 in 19g | 24/10g (2·2·0·5·5·1·2·1·0·6) | 3/2g | 27/16g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' 37' 83' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 29 in 19g | 13/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·5·1·1·2) | 13/8g | 74/79g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 91' 92' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 25 in 20g | 17/10g (2·1·2·1·3·0·2·1·3·2) | 9/8g | 74/79g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 76% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 24 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 9/9g | 129/98g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 21 in 19g | 9/10g (1·4·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 8/10g | 34/61g | 66% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 21 in 18g | 13/10g (3·1·2·0·0·3·3·1·0·0) | 11/11g | 167/88g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 10 in 20g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 7/9g | 66/100g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 10 in 20g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/9g | 47% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 10 in 20g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·3·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/24g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 7 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 7/9g | 43/90g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·0·4·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 10/88g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 11/29g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 6/35g | 14% | — | 🏉 30' 44' |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 6/38g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 6/18g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 14/14g | 130/150g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Henry Smith | RUC | 3 in 1g | 3/5g (0·0·0·0·3) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Will McLachlan | FWD | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Sam Marshall | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Deven Robertson | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/21g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/114g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Doedee | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 30 in 20g | 20/10g (3·1·1·2·5·0·1·5·1·1) | 14/9g | 7/6g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 52' 56' 63' 68' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 21 in 16g | 11/10g (1·1·2·1·1·0·3·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 17 in 20g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 1/4g | 64% | — | 🏉 27' 65' |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 14 in 20g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 3/6g | 1/3g | 40% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 10 in 20g | 7/10g (0·0·3·0·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 8 in 16g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·2) | 1/5g | 1/1g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 8 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 7 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·3·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 3/11g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 6 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/15g | 2/16g | 22% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 6 in 6g | 6/7g (0·1·0·2·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.47 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 2/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 5 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 5 in 8g | 9/10g (3·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 10/11g | 11/9g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Errol Gulden | MID | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 8/5g | 6/3g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 2/6g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 4/6g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/8g | 18% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/11g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Dattoli | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 4/3g | 22% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 31 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 66% | 31 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko | 23.5 | $1.93 | 60% | 28 ✗ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 23.5 | $1.83 | 47% | 30 ✗ |
| Jarrod Berry ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 64% | 19 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 69% | 21 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 27 ✗ |
| Zac Bailey ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 22 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $2.00 | 60% | 27 ✗ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.80 | 76% | 29 ✗ |
| Callum Mills ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 22 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.82 | 72% | 20 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.99 | 60% | 23 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 22.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 26 ✗ |
| Brodie Grundy | 21.5 | $1.85 | 53% | 14 ✓ |
| Justin McInerney | 19.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 19 ✓ |
| Jake Lloyd | 18.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 20 ✗ |
| Angus Sheldrick | 18.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 26 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)