# GWS GIANTS v North Melbourne — AFL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 133 – 79 North Melbourne

_GWS GIANTS run riot over North Melbourne._

Half time: 66 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 98% / North Melbourne 2% · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Sun, 10 Aug, 01:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Callum Brown (17' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Jake Stringer (20' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Aaron Cadman (24' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Finn Callaghan (47'), Toby Bedford (51'), Toby Greene (69' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ryan Angwin (90'), Harvey Thomas (94'), Tom Green (91') · North Melbourne: Cooper Harvey (9' ×2 1st), Cooper Trembath (29' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Darling (54' ×3), Geordie Payne (85'), Luke Parker (89'), Dylan Stephens (67'), Colby McKercher (87')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 98% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 2% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 59.5 predicted → 54 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

GWS GIANTS 133–79 North Melbourne in AFL Round 22 at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at Manuka read 66-28, GWS GIANTS already up by 38 and cruising. That sort of margin at the main break usually settles into a laugher, and this one didn't buck the trend.

If anything the Giants leaned harder into it. Three-quarter time had them out to 106-60, stretching the margin from 38 to 46, and by the final siren it had grown further still, 133-79. The gap widened every quarter: 15 points at quarter time, 38 at half time, 46 at the last change, 54 at full time. North Melbourne never found a way to arrest it, and the numbers across the afternoon explain why.

The disposal count tells the story. GWS GIANTS finished with 358 to North's 297, and did it more efficiently too, 76.7% to 74.4%. Add 133 contested possessions to North's 115, and 46 clearances to 39, and you've got a side that simply had the ball more and used it better. Inside 50 the story was worse for North: 56 entries to 46, and once the ball got there GWS GIANTS marked it 21 times inside the arc against just 9. That's the gap between a side controlling the forward half and one stuck defending it all day.

North Melbourne did win one battle outright: the ruck, 45 hit-outs to 35. Tackles were dead level at 68 apiece, so it wasn't for lack of pressure. It just didn't translate into territory or clean use, which is the only currency that matters on a scoreboard like this. Intercepts were close too, 53 to 50 in the Giants' favour, but everything upstream of that, the clearances, the inside 50 count, the efficiency, gave GWS GIANTS first use time and again.

The pre-match numbers had this coming. GWS GIANTS held the edge everywhere that counts: midfield 1079 to 925, forwards 1032 to 948, defence 1070 to 863, and even the ruck 989 to 908 on paper, despite losing that particular fight on the day. Recent form backed it up in some ways and not others. North Melbourne actually came in with the better average margin over their last five games, plus 21.4 points to a barely-there plus 1.0 for the Giants, and had been racking up more disposals and inside 50s across that stretch too. None of it showed up against a Giants side clicking on every other measure.

Alphr's model had GWS GIANTS rated at 1526 to North's 1419, and called the Giants as 98% favourites with an expected margin of 59.5 points. The actual result, a 54-point win, landed close enough to count as a clean read. The model's combined score projection of 202 also wasn't far off the final 212 posted between the two sides.

In the end this was a game where the second half didn't rewrite the story from half time, it just kept telling it, louder. GWS GIANTS controlled the ball, controlled territory, and made North Melbourne's one clear advantage, the ruck, count for almost nothing. A 54-point beating at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, and not much argument about how it got there.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 30 | 36 | 40 | 27 | 133 |
| North Melbourne | 15 | 13 | 32 | 19 | 79 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **358** | Disposals | 297 |
| **133** | Contested poss. | 115 |
| **46** | Clearances | 39 |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 46 |
| **102** | Marks | 82 |
| **21** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| 68 | Tackles | 68 |
| 35 | Hit-outs | **45** |
| **53** | Intercepts | 50 |
| **76.7%** | Disposal eff. | 74.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 98% probability. The predicted margin of 59.5 was reasonable against the actual 54-point result. GWS GIANTS led 66–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.06 (edge +3.5%) — model probability 97.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 60 · Predicted total: 202

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 210 · 138 | 123 · 209 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 90/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.7/g | 12.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.7/g | 6.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.4% | 70% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 44 · 64 | 38 · 65 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 22/g | 19.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.6% | 73.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 20 | 59 · 23 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 131/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.8/g | 13.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 2.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.6% | 78.2% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.71/g (lg 0.51) +39% · Key Forwards 4.74/g (lg 3.62) +31% · Forwards 5.67/g (lg 4.41) +29%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.51) +6% · Defenders 1.2/g (lg 1.25) -4% · Forwards 4.15/g (lg 4.41) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 38 in 20g | 27/10g (2·2·1·5·3·2·6·1·3·2) | 2/1g | 6/8g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 71' 78' 93' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 32 in 18g | 16/10g (1·1·3·1·0·2·3·2·2·1) | 13/13g | 52/31g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' 82' 95' |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 22 in 13g | 20/10g (1·0·3·2·2·1·4·3·3·1) | 26/14g | 4/4g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 52' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 21 in 16g | 15/10g (3·2·2·0·2·1·1·2·0·2) | 8/3g | 12/8g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 82% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 19 in 18g | 15/10g (3·3·0·3·2·1·1·2·0·0) | 5/2g | 5/7g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 22' 42' 78' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 15 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 61% | — | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 11 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·2·1) | 4/3g | 3/7g | 40% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 11 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 9/12g | 42% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 7 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/5g | 37% | — | 🏉 94' |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 14% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 4 in 4g | 7/8g (2·0·0·1·2·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 16/28g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/7g | 14/21g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/14g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/14g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/25g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 8% | — | 🏉 90' |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 37 in 20g | 18/10g (3·2·0·3·0·2·3·0·3·2) | 6/5g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 19 in 19g | 10/10g (2·0·0·1·1·0·3·1·1·1) | 26/14g | 0/0g | 68% | — | 🏉 54' 87' 69' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 11 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 10 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 10 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 19/25g | 0/0g | 36% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Cooper Harvey | DEF | 7 in 4g | 8/7g (1·0·0·1·4·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 57% | — | 🏉 9' 57' |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 6 in 20g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Bailey Scott | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Brynn Teakle | RUC | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 47% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 2/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.67 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' 100' |
| – | Geordie Payne | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.78 | 70% | 25 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 13 ✓ |
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.90 | 77% | 27 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 31 ✗ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.91 | 71% | 24 ✗ |
| Stephen Coniglio ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.88 | 72% | 21 ✗ |
| Connor Idun | 18.5 | $1.90 | 55% | 17 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 16.5 | $1.92 | 58% | 23 ✗ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.80 | 78% | 27 ✓ |
| Harry Sheezel | 27.5 | $1.88 | 61% | 31 ✗ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.81 | 70% | 20 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel | 24.5 | $1.91 | 53% | 23 ✓ |
| Tom Powell | 23.5 | $1.76 | 62% | 11 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 21.5 | $1.88 | 53% | 29 ✗ |
| Tristan Xerri ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 11 ✓ |
| Finn O'Sullivan | 15.5 | $1.88 | 52% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)