AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 98% probability. The predicted margin of 59.5 was reasonable against the actual 54-point result. GWS GIANTS led 66–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
98%
North Melbourne
2%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. GWS GIANTS carry a 108-point ELO rating advantage (1526 vs 1419). The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 59.5 points with a combined total of 202.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.06
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.5%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS -46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.5%
Total Points
Over 170.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | W L L L L | 87.8 |
North Melbourne | W L L L L | 83.7 |
Avg Conceded
72.7
GWS GIANTS
68.0
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
1.0
GWS GIANTS
21.4
North Melbourne
Disposals
355.6
GWS GIANTS
375.4
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
55.1
GWS GIANTS
56.2
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 60 points
Predicted total: 202 · Line: +59.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.15
Team Effectiveness
+0.41
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.