# Hawthorn v Collingwood — AFL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 110 – 46 Collingwood

_Hawthorn run riot over Collingwood._

Half time: 63 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 87% / Collingwood 13% · MCG · Thu, 07 Aug, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Nick Watson (14' 1st), Calsher Dear (24' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Moore (43'), Jack Gunston (54' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Lewis (56' Tipped ⚡), Mabior Chol (58' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Lloyd Meek (65' ×2), Jai Newcombe (73'), Final quarter (27m 4s)James Worpel (71') · Collingwood: Brody Mihocek (18' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jordan de Goey (28'), Patrick Lipinski (83'), Tim Membrey (77' Tipped ⚡), Lachie Schultz (90')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 87% | Won |
| Collingwood | 13% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.1 predicted → 64 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn vs Collingwood Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 22, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Hawthorn 110–46 Collingwood in AFL Round 22 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood's only real box to tick was the tackle count: 42 to Hawthorn's 37. Pressure was there. Whether it mattered is another question entirely, because everything built on top of that pressure went missing.

The efficiency numbers tell the story of a side that couldn't hang onto what it won. Collingwood's disposal efficiency sat at 70.3%, well behind Hawthorn's 77.7%. They went inside 50 44 times to Hawthorn's 50, not a disaster on its own, but once the ball got there it mostly stayed unmarked. Nine marks inside forward 50 to Hawthorn's 18 says plenty about how often Collingwood's entries actually landed.

By the final siren it was Hawthorn 110, Collingwood 46 at the MCG. Not a contest so much as an exhibition. The scoreboard tells you the shape of it too: Hawthorn led 21-15 at quarter time, a manageable gap, then blew it out to 63-24 by half time. That's 42 points to 9 in the second term alone. From there it was 89-33 at the three-quarter time break and 110-46 at full time, Hawthorn adding another 21 to Collingwood's 13 in the last quarter to close it out.

Up the middle, Hawthorn's ruck and clearance work did the damage. Hit-outs went 35-25 their way, clearances 35-30, both lining up with the pre-match ruck rating gap of 1109 to 996. The midfield numbers were closer on paper, 1033 to 1004, but Hawthorn's 125 contested possessions to 107 and 408 disposals to Collingwood's 332 suggest that edge showed up exactly where it needed to. Marks told a similar tale: 110 to 77 overall, with intercepts locked level at 59 apiece, so it wasn't that Collingwood couldn't win the ball back. They just couldn't do anything with it once they had.

Form lines make Collingwood's night look worse, not better. Coming in they'd been averaging 379.7 disposals across their last five games and 85.6 points a game, with an average losing margin of 16.4 when things went wrong. On Saturday they managed 332 disposals and 46 points, nowhere near either mark, and the margin blew out to 64. Hawthorn, by contrast, came in averaging 109.4 points a game and landed on 110, almost exactly on script, continuing a run that had them winning at roughly double the rate Collingwood had managed over the same stretch.

Alphr's model had this one right in the broad strokes and wrong in the fine print. It gave Hawthorn an 87% chance of victory off pre-match ratings of 1573 to 1537, and that side of the ledger held up easily. Where it fell over was the margin: the model's projection had Hawthorn by 6.1 points in a game that finished at 165 combined, but the actual margin ran out to 64 and the final score itself topped 150. Hawthorn covered the 7.5-point line without much trouble. It's a reminder that even a model built on solid positional ratings, Hawthorn's clear edges in forward (1068 to 987) and defensive (1113 to 1047) strength among them, can nail the winner and still badly undercook how one-sided it gets on the day.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 21 | 42 | 26 | 21 | 110 |
| Collingwood | 15 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 46 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| **408** | Disposals | 332 |
| **125** | Contested poss. | 107 |
| **35** | Clearances | 30 |
| **50** | Inside 50s | 44 |
| **110** | Marks | 77 |
| **18** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| 37 | Tackles | **42** |
| **35** | Hit-outs | 25 |
| 59 | Intercepts | 59 |
| **77.7%** | Disposal eff. | 70.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 87% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.1 but the actual margin was 64 points. Hawthorn led 63–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 64. The model went 2/3 on this match. Hawthorn covered the 7.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $2.30 (edge +43.7%) — model probability 87.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +43.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 162.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 6 · Predicted total: 165

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 187 · 144 | 200 · 125 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 5.3/g |
| Disposals | 96/g | 113/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.9/g | 20.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.6/g | 10.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.8% | 67.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 40 · 53 | 44 · 56 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 139/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.5/g | 19.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.2/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.6% | 68.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 18 | 17 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 2/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.7/g | 12.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.8% | 80.2% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Defenders 1.19/g (lg 1.26) -6% · Rucks 0.46/g (lg 0.51) -10% · Forwards 3.96/g (lg 4.45) -11%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.37/g (lg 1.26) +9% · Midfielders 2.37/g (lg 2.36) +0% · Key Forwards 3.5/g (lg 3.62) -3%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 49 in 17g | 26/10g (0·2·1·2·7·3·1·3·3·4) | 23/17g | 220/116g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' 76' 90' 88' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 33 in 18g | 18/10g (2·3·0·0·4·1·5·2·0·1) | 7/7g | 34/29g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' 62' 79' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 28 in 19g | 14/10g (3·0·1·0·3·2·1·1·2·1) | 4/2g | 28/16g | 75% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 23 in 19g | 14/10g (1·3·2·0·2·1·1·1·1·2) | 7/3g | 61/45g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 17 in 20g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0·1) | 7/6g | 47/49g | 68% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 16 in 18g | 11/10g (3·0·1·2·2·1·1·0·1·0) | 5/5g | 26/35g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 12/74g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 8 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 11/38g | 40% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | 7 in 5g | 19/10g (3·3·2·3·1·0·3·2·2·0) | 0/1g | 14/7g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 31/76g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 6 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/22g | 22% | — | 🏉 65' 93' |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 7/23g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 7/46g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 5/12g | 14/63g | 12% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 21/56g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 3/26g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Luke Breust | FWD | 3 in 5g | 8/10g (2·0·2·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 41/16g | 249/132g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 3 in 3g | 13/10g (2·2·1·1·1·1·2·0·2·1) | 9/4g | 54/28g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 56' |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 10/32g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/24g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/44g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/21g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 48 in 20g | 25/10g (5·5·1·2·1·4·3·2·1·1) | 22/14g | 212/131g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 33 in 17g | 18/10g (1·2·4·1·1·2·2·2·2·1) | 14/7g | 151/90g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 45' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 27 in 18g | 17/10g (1·3·1·1·2·2·2·2·2·1) | 15/9g | 54/27g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 18 in 15g | 13/10g (3·0·2·2·0·4·0·0·1·1) | 11/10g | 42/37g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 15 in 20g | 10/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·3·1) | 4/5g | 33/56g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 12 in 17g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 8/12g | 106/117g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 11 in 18g | 8/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·0·2·0·2) | 11/18g | 104/179g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (1·2·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 7/7g | 32/28g | 68% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 7 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 50/151g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 7 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·2·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 27/55g | 40% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 6 in 6g | 10/10g (0·1·1·2·0·2·2·1·0·1) | 10/10g | 119/111g | 62% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 6 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/20g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/7g | 7/27g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 38/67g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 4 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 14/136g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/27g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 30/84g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/19g | 80/181g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/25g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 39/110g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/73g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 56/161g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tom Mitchell | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 25/71g | 18% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Amon | 23.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 27 ✗ |
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.92 | 67% | 25 ✗ |
| Jai Newcombe ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 28 ✗ |
| James Worpel ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.81 | 66% | 21 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 21.5 | $1.89 | 58% | 21 ✓ |
| James Sicily ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 26 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.99 | 76% | 26 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 20.5 | $1.96 | 59% | 25 ✗ |
| Conor Nash | 19.5 | $1.80 | 62% | 23 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 19.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 24 ✗ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 32.5 | $1.83 | 64% | 24 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.85 | 74% | 20 ✓ |
| Tom Mitchell | 23.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 18 ✓ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 22.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 27 ✗ |
| Darcy Moore ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.96 | 99% | 15 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 20.5 | $1.86 | 55% | 18 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.85 | 72% | 16 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 18.5 | $1.98 | 48% | 22 ✗ |
| Patrick Lipinski ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.84 | 66% | 16 ✓ |
| Harry Perryman | 15.5 | $1.89 | 55% | 17 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)