AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 87% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.1 but the actual margin was 64 points. Hawthorn led 63–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 64. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
87%
Collingwood
13%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 87%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Collingwood. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Hawthorn carry a 36-point ELO rating advantage (1573 vs 1537). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 6.1 points with a combined total of 165.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @2.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+43.7%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn +7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+43.7%
Total Points
Over 162.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | W W L L L | 109.4 |
Collingwood | W L L L L | 85.6 |
Avg Conceded
72.2
Hawthorn
65.1
Collingwood
Avg Margin
11.6
Hawthorn
16.4
Collingwood
Disposals
341.1
Hawthorn
379.7
Collingwood
Inside 50s
57.2
Hawthorn
58.0
Collingwood
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1573 vs 1537), but the market favours Collingwood (@1.77).
The model sides with ELO, Hawthorn predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
87%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 165 · Line: +6.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-1.24
Team Effectiveness
+0.27
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.