AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 90% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 31.6 but the actual margin was 9 points. Total score prediction of 161 was close to the actual 165 — within 4 points. Adelaide Crows trailed 40–34 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 78–87. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
10%
Adelaide Crows
90%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 90%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Adelaide Crows carry a 41-point ELO rating advantage (1524 vs 1483). The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 31.6 points with a combined total of 161.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.03
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.4%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +59.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.4%
Total Points
Under 176.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | WWLLL | 87.5 |
Adelaide Crows | WWLLL | 82.6 |
Avg Conceded
98.7
West Coast Eagles
76.1
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
14.3
West Coast Eagles
-3.5
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
353.4
West Coast Eagles
346.5
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
45.7
West Coast Eagles
55.5
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
90%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 32 points
Predicted total: 161 · Line: -31.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.03
Team Effectiveness
-0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.