# West Coast Eagles v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 78 – 87 Adelaide Crows

_Adelaide Crows fight back to swoop on West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 40 – 34 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 10% / Adelaide Crows 90% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 10 Aug, 05:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Jobe Shanahan (13' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Liam Baker (30'), Liam Ryan (44' ×3), Jamie Cripps (53' Tipped ⚡), Hamish Davis (61'), Final quarter (32m 9s)Tim Kelly (60'), Tyler Brockman (89') · Adelaide Crows: James Peatling (7' 1st), Jordan Dawson (9' Tipped ⚡), Luke Pedlar (21' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ben Keays (24' Tipped ⚡), Jake Soligo (68'), Zac Taylor (79'), Riley Thilthorpe (84' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Fogarty (65' Tipped ⚡), Izak Rankine (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 90% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 10% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 31.6 predicted → 9 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

West Coast Eagles 78–87 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 22 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows won by nine, 87 to 78, but the real story is who was under the pump and when. West Coast led by six at half time and were still four points clear at the last change, 64 to 60. Then the roof fell in.

Start at the top. Adelaide were away by 13 at quarter time, 32 to 19, playing the game the positional ratings said they should: stronger midfield, stronger forward line, stronger ruck, all showing up early. West Coast then produced the best stretch of their night, outscoring the Crows 21 to 2 in the second term to turn a 13-point deficit into a six-point lead at the main break. That's the kind of swing that makes a contest.

West Coast's buffer shrank through the third quarter, down to four points by the change, with the score at 64-60. They were still in front, just not as comfortably. Then Adelaide finished it properly, piling on 27 points to West Coast's 14 in the last quarter to take the game away in the run home. Four quarters, three different sides in front at some stage.

The stat sheet explains why the Crows had the legs for that finish. Adelaide won the hit-out count 63 to 28, dominated clearances 44 to 33, and pushed forward far more often, going inside 50 a full 51 times to West Coast's 37. They also just had more of the ball: 340 disposals to 299. When you control the ruck and the clearances by that margin, you get first use of the footy all night, and eventually that shows up on the scoreboard, even if it takes three quarters to arrive.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 19 | 21 | 24 | 14 | 78 |
| Adelaide Crows | 32 | 2 | 26 | 27 | 87 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| 299 | Disposals | **340** |
| 128 | Contested poss. | **137** |
| 33 | Clearances | **44** |
| 37 | Inside 50s | **51** |
| 80 | Marks | **90** |
| **10** | Marks inside 50 | 7 |
| **72** | Tackles | 68 |
| 28 | Hit-outs | **63** |
| **73** | Intercepts | 68 |
| **68.6%** | Disposal eff. | 66.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 90% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 31.6 but the actual margin was 9 points. Total score prediction of 161 was close to the actual 165, within 4 points. Adelaide Crows trailed 40–34 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 78–87. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.03 (edge -7.4%) — model probability 89.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +59.5 @ $1.91 (edge -7.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 32 · Predicted total: 161

### H2H History (Last 5) — Adelaide Crows lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | West Coast Eagles | 74 – 99 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2025 | R11 | Adelaide Crows | 128 – 62 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2024 | R11 | Adelaide Crows | 137 – 38 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2023 | R24 | West Coast Eagles | 78 – 123 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2023 | R13 | Adelaide Crows | 174 – 52 | West Coast Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 133 · 206 | 210 · 135 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 5.2/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.8/g | 20.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.8/g | 9.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.2% | 66.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 41 · 80 | 81 · 47 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 5.2/g |
| Disposals | 92/g | 128/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.6/g | 24.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71% | 67.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 21 | 9 · 17 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.9/g | 10.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.2% | 79% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.33/g (lg 1.26) +6% · Midfielders 2.32/g (lg 2.39) -3% · Forwards 4.17/g (lg 4.42) -6%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.8/g (lg 0.51) +57% · Midfielders 3.55/g (lg 2.39) +49% · Key Forwards 4.59/g (lg 3.63) +26%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 21 in 18g | 11/10g (3·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·2·2) | 27/18g | 99/82g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 19 in 17g | 10/10g (2·0·1·1·0·1·1·2·1·1) | 6/8g | 74/65g | 64% | — | 🏉 44' 86' 90' |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 13 in 17g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·2·0·1·0·1·1) | 4/3g | 6/16g | 52% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 10 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 12/18g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 6 in 6g | 6/6g (1·2·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 83% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.53 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 63' |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 8/10g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 4 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 4/7g | 6/19g | 32% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/14g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 4/12g | 22/60g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 3 in 19g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/38g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Clay Hall | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/10g | 5/17g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Chesser | MID | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/14g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 6/24g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/63g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tom Gross | FWD | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 61' |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 4/80g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/31g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 48 in 20g | 25/10g (2·2·1·0·5·0·6·2·3·4) | 6/5g | 5/3g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 84' 80' 84' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 36 in 19g | 11/10g (1·2·0·0·1·2·3·0·1·1) | 22/10g | 11/6g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 31 in 20g | 15/10g (1·3·3·2·0·2·0·1·3·0) | 8/11g | 2/5g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 29 in 20g | 16/10g (1·1·0·1·1·5·1·2·1·3) | 11/6g | 7/6g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 16 in 20g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·1) | 11/14g | 9/13g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 16 in 20g | 10/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·2) | 6/9g | 2/7g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.60 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 12 in 20g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 6/6g | 3/4g | 36% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 10 in 20g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 6 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 30% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 6/4g | 1/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 6 in 6g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·1·1) | 3/3g | 0/2g | 61% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 26' 82' |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 3/6g | 2/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 3 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Chayce Jones | DEF | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Chris Burgess | KF | no games | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·3·0) | 1/1g | 3/2g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Bond | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 3/6g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kelly ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.85 | 87% | 25 ✗ |
| Ryan Maric ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.85 | 87% | 16 ✓ |
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.80 | 81% | 29 ✗ |
| Liam Baker ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.94 | 65% | 14 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 21.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 16 ✓ |
| Elijah Hewett ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.89 | 73% | 19 ✗ |
| Jack Graham ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 14 ✓ |
| Tom Cole ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.89 | 65% | 14 ✓ |
| Brady Hough ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $2.01 | 60% | 18 ✗ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | 25.5 | $1.77 | 62% | 26 ✗ |
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | $1.88 | 43% | 25 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 22 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 10 ✓ |
| Daniel Curtin ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 8 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 19.5 | $1.90 | 45% | 15 ✓ |
| Ben Keays | 19.5 | $1.77 | 58% | 8 ✓ |
| Wayne Milera | 18.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 18 ✓ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $2.00 | 65% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)