AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 9.3 was reasonable against the actual 19-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
40%
Gold Coast SUNS
60%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Carlton are far from out of this at 40%. Carlton are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Gold Coast SUNS counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Carlton carry a 105-point ELO rating advantage (1599 vs 1494). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 9.3 points with a combined total of 152.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.25
Winner ✓
Edge
-19.7%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +24.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-19.7%
Total Points
Under 169.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | W L L L L | 93.6 |
Gold Coast SUNS | W W W L L | 105.6 |
Avg Conceded
79.7
Carlton
79.3
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
13.1
Carlton
27.0
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
332.0
Carlton
367.6
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
55.4
Carlton
50.8
Gold Coast SUNS
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1599 vs 1494), but the market favours Gold Coast SUNS (@1.25).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 152 · Line: -9.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.06
Team Effectiveness
-0.20
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.