# Carlton v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 74 – 93 Gold Coast SUNS

_Gold Coast SUNS outshine Carlton._

Half time: 31 – 55 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 40% / Gold Coast SUNS 60% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 09 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Harry McKay (8' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Francis Evans (13' ×4), Lachie Fogarty (43'), Hudson OKeeffe (50'), Jesse Motlop (68' Tipped ⚡), Ashton Moir (74') · Gold Coast SUNS: Jarrod Witts (22'), Ben Long (23' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ben King (29' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Brayden Fiorini (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 60% | Won |
| Carlton | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.3 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 22 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm · Last updated: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Carlton 74–93 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 22 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at Marvel Stadium had Carlton staring down a 24-point hole, 55-31, and from there the shape of the contest looked settled well before the final change. Gold Coast SUNS had done the hard work early and Carlton's task in the second half was less about winning and more about not getting embarrassed.

They didn't manage that either, not straight away. The third quarter was the killer: SUNS piled on 29 points to Carlton's 8, turning a losing position into a rout at 84-39 by three-quarter time. Carlton finally found some points in the last term, outscoring the visitors 35-9 once the result was long decided, and the final margin settled at 93-74. It's the kind of last-quarter scoreline that flatters the loser more than it explains the game.

Strip away the raw scoring and the underlying numbers tell a different story, one that's a lot closer than 19 points suggests. Disposals were almost identical, 325 to 328. Contested possessions were tight, 132 to 129. Carlton actually edged the clearance count 35 to 36, barely worth calling a loss. Disposal efficiency was split by three-tenths of a per cent, 68.9 to 68.6. On those numbers alone, it reads like an even arm-wrestle.

Where it wasn't even was in the air and around the stoppages, and that's where the game was actually decided.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 19 | 12 | 8 | 35 | 74 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 34 | 21 | 29 | 9 | 93 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| 325 | Disposals | **328** |
| **132** | Contested poss. | 129 |
| 35 | Clearances | **36** |
| 46 | Inside 50s | **55** |
| 60 | Marks | **91** |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| **77** | Tackles | 68 |
| 30 | Hit-outs | **50** |
| 61 | Intercepts | **66** |
| **68.9%** | Disposal eff. | 68.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 9.3 was reasonable against the actual 19-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.25 (edge -19.7%) — model probability 60.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +24.5 @ $1.91 (edge -19.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 9 · Predicted total: 152

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 131 · 161 | 201 · 138 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 85/g | 102/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.5/g | 20.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.8/g | 10.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.4% | 67.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 51 · 56 | 39 · 52 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 164/g | 126/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.7/g | 22.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.5% | 71.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 35 · 27 | 21 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 128/g |
| Inside 50s | 13/g | 14.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.2% | 79.5% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.43/g (lg 1.26) +13% · Forwards 4.43/g (lg 4.41) +0% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.39) +0%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.6/g (lg 0.51) +18% · Forwards 4.51/g (lg 4.41) +2% · Defenders 1.24/g (lg 1.26) -2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 19 in 16g | 12/10g (1·2·2·1·1·3·1·0·0·1) | 4/10g | 17/28g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.49 AI 54% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 15 in 20g | 9/10g (1·2·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 2/1g | 26/18g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 14 in 13g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 18/20g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 12 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 12/15g | 45/69g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 11 in 9g | 14/10g (3·1·0·3·0·3·2·0·1·1) | 15/10g | 83/42g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 65' 85' |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 10 in 18g | 7/10g (2·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 6/21g | 30% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Will White | FWD | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (3·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 4/2g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Moir | FWD | 6 in 6g | 8/8g (1·1·0·1·0·4·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 63% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 6 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 12/41g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 5/28g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 28/69g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 5 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 10/29g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 36% | — | 🏉 13' 16' 75' 67' |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/19g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 4/54g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Young | FWD | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hudson O'Keeffe | RUC | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 4/60g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/25g | 2% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 51 in 19g | 22/10g (2·1·1·2·3·4·2·1·2·4) | 6/6g | 35/17g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.62 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 31' 55' 69' 89' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 34 in 18g | 15/10g (3·1·1·1·2·0·1·0·4·2) | 3/6g | 28/51g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' 48' 70' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 21 in 19g | 14/10g (0·0·1·2·2·2·1·0·3·3) | 2/3g | 4/9g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 17 in 18g | 12/10g (2·0·0·2·2·1·0·1·3·1) | 8/10g | 15/21g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 70% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 16 in 17g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 3/12g | 9/28g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 15 in 15g | 10/10g (0·1·0·0·1·3·1·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 69% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 8 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 6/17g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/17g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/7g | 9/19g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 5 in 19g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/11g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jy Farrar | FWD | 5 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·2) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/9g | 5/20g | 34% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/17g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 4/19g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 7/24g | 20% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 5/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Malcolm Rosas | FWD | 1 in 3g | 13/10g (3·2·2·1·2·2·0·0·1·0) | 4/3g | 3/6g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Alex Davies | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/6g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/16g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.88 | 71% | 23 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 27 ✗ |
| Adam Saad | 18.5 | $1.77 | 59% | 22 ✗ |
| Oliver Hollands | 18.5 | $1.80 | 50% | 29 ✗ |
| Cooper Lord ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.96 | 69% | 24 ✗ |
| Blake Acres | 18.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 15 ✓ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.85 | 68% | 15 ✓ |
| Nick Haynes | 17.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 14 ✓ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 31.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 19 ✓ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 24 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell | 26.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 30 ✗ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 25 ✓ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 23.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 22 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 14 ✓ |
| Alex Davies ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.96 | 63% | 18 ✓ |
| Wil Powell | 16.5 | $1.91 | 52% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)