AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 96% probability. The predicted margin of 54.6 was reasonable against the actual 44-point result. The game's 174 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 197. Geelong Cats led 52–15 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 44. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
96%
Essendon
4%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 96%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. Recent form favours Essendon with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 54.6 points with a combined total of 197.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.01
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.6%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -69.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.6%
Total Points
Over 181.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | W L L L L | 73.2 |
Essendon | W W W W L | 75.2 |
Avg Conceded
69.4
Geelong Cats
99.1
Essendon
Avg Margin
-1.6
Geelong Cats
29.7
Essendon
Disposals
353.7
Geelong Cats
338.1
Essendon
Inside 50s
49.0
Geelong Cats
47.7
Essendon
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
96%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 55 points
Predicted total: 197 · Line: +54.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.12
Team Effectiveness
+0.17
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.