# Geelong Cats v Essendon — AFL Round 22 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Geelong Cats 109 – 65 Essendon

_Geelong Cats pounce on Essendon._

Half time: 52 – 15 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Geelong Cats 96% / Essendon 4% · GMHBA Stadium · Fri, 08 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Geelong Cats: Shannon Neale (8' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Oliver Dempsey (16'), Jeremy Cameron (35' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Brad Close (53' Tipped ⚡), Shaun Mannagh (71' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Gryan Miers (88'), Mark Blicavs (70') · Essendon: Liam McMahon (24' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Zach Merrett (76'), Matt Guelfi (80'), Jade Gresham (85'), Andrew McGrath (62'), Xavier Duursma (66'), Peter Wright (72' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 96% | Won |
| Essendon | 4% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 54.6 predicted → 44 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Geelong Cats vs Essendon Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 22, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Geelong Cats 109–65 Essendon in AFL Round 22 at GMHBA Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Essendon arrived with the better recent form on paper, three wins from their last five against Geelong's 1.4, and an average margin of plus 29.7 points compared to the Cats' minus 1.6. None of it showed up on the scoreboard at GMHBA Stadium. Geelong won 109 to 65, and by the finish it wasn't close.

Give Essendon this much: they out-tackled Geelong, 66 to 58, so the effort in defence was there even as the scoreboard ran away. But effort without the ball doesn't win you a game like this, and Essendon simply didn't have enough of it. Geelong finished with 351 disposals to 333, and the gap in disposal efficiency, 73.0 per cent to 66.8, meant every Cats possession did more damage than an Essendon one.

The ruck battle tells its own story. Essendon actually rated higher there coming in, 1015 to 994, but got beaten up at the source, losing hit-outs 44 to 31. That's the kind of number that flows straight into clearances, and sure enough Geelong won those 35 to 26. From first use of the ball, Essendon was already playing catch-up.

Geelong's forward line finished the job. Twenty-one marks inside 50 to Essendon's 11 is a brutal split, the sort that turns inside 50 entries into scores rather than stoppages. Geelong went inside 50 a modest five times more than Essendon, 52 to 47, but made far better use of each trip. Add 69 intercepts to Essendon's 57 and you've got a side that was both cleaner going forward and sharper reading the ball coming back the other way.

The timeline shows this wasn't a late Geelong surge, it was there from the opening term. Quarter time already had Geelong up 29 to 8. By half time it was 52 to 15, and Essendon's much-vaunted defensive rating of 951 against Geelong's 1044 looked exactly like what the numbers suggested pre-match. Three-quarter time had it at 79 to 47, and the last quarter was really just Geelong seeing out a game long since decided.

Essendon's midfield rating (1066) and forward rating (989) were both nominally stronger than Geelong's coming in, which made the final margin a genuine shock on paper. In practice, Geelong's defensive edge (1044 to 951) proved the difference that mattered, and it showed up everywhere: more contested ball (127 to 112), more marks (108 to 92), more of everything that isn't points on a stat sheet but usually ends up becoming them.

Alphr's model had Geelong at 96 per cent to win and predicted a 54.6-point margin on a combined total of 197. The actual margin came in at 44, the total at 174, both a little tamer than forecast but well within the same conversation. Geelong covered the 69.5-point line with room to spare, and the model went 2 from 3 on this one. Not a bad night's work, considering Essendon's form line said the opposite was meant to happen.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 29 | 23 | 27 | 30 | 109 |
| Essendon | 8 | 7 | 32 | 18 | 65 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Geelong Cats | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| **351** | Disposals | 333 |
| **127** | Contested poss. | 112 |
| **35** | Clearances | 26 |
| **52** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| **108** | Marks | 92 |
| **21** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 58 | Tackles | **66** |
| **44** | Hit-outs | 31 |
| **69** | Intercepts | 57 |
| **73.0%** | Disposal eff. | 66.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 96% probability. The predicted margin of 54.6 was reasonable against the actual 44-point result. The game's 174 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 197. Geelong Cats led 52–15 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 44. The model went 2/3 on this match. Geelong Cats covered the 69.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.01 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 96.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -69.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 181.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 55 · Predicted total: 197

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Geelong Cats | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 230 · 151 | 102 · 174 |
| Goal Assists | 6.9/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 98/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.5/g | 14.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.5/g | 5.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.2% | 67.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Geelong Cats | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 71 · 47 | 67 · 61 |
| Goal Assists | 3.8/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 145/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.4/g | 22.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.7/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.1% | 71.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Geelong Cats | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 22 | 14 · 27 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 129/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.4/g | 9.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.3% | 79.3% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.48/g (lg 1.26) +17% · Forwards 5/g (lg 4.45) +12% · Key Forwards 4/g (lg 3.62) +10%
**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.84/g (lg 3.62) +6% · Rucks 0.5/g (lg 0.51) -2% · Forwards 4.28/g (lg 4.45) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GMHBA Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 75 in 20g | 48/10g (6·5·0·6·4·4·1·5·11·6) | 46/16g | 118/43g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 99% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $4.20 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 40' 79' 82' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 34 in 20g | 26/10g (5·1·0·4·1·3·5·0·4·3) | 5/2g | 27/17g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.25 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 10' 12' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 26 in 18g | 18/10g (2·1·2·2·4·1·0·2·2·2) | 12/5g | 66/33g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 86% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 25 in 20g | 8/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 4/2g | 19/22g | 70% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 20 in 17g | 11/10g (2·1·0·3·0·1·1·3·0·0) | 3/1g | 12/13g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' 90' 67' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 16 in 20g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 7/7g | 45/43g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 13 in 15g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·1·1·1·2) | 2/6g | 12/23g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 11 in 20g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·2) | 5/6g | 15/37g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 10 in 18g | 8/10g (0·2·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 8/7g | 41/53g | 56% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 6 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 1/10g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 6 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/15g | 20/95g | 24% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/10g | 25/56g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 2/12g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 10/51g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/32g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/50g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Knevitt | FWD | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/6g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 5/44g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 13/59g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/66g | 2% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 24 in 15g | 15/10g (2·2·3·2·1·1·0·2·2·0) | 9/8g | 1/4g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 15 in 17g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/6g | 1/3g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 12 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 59% | — | — |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 9 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/2g | 50% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 8 in 18g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 42% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 8 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/3g | 26% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Archer May | KF | 7 in 6g | 7/6g (0·2·3·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.85 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/2g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (3·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jye Menzie | FWD | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·4·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Matt Guelfi | FWD | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 5/8g | 3/3g | 58% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Liam McMahon | KF | 4 in 3g | 4/3g (2·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 64' 81' |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Luamon Lual | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/12g | 3/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/19g | 3/6g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 2% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Nguyen | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 33.5 | $1.88 | 56% | 31 ✓ |
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 32.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 29 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 22 ✓ |
| Shaun Mannagh ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.77 | 73% | 20 ✓ |
| Tom Atkins ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 20 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart | 21.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 18 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries | 18.5 | $2.00 | 58% | 11 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 18.5 | $1.88 | 53% | 12 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 16 ✓ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 25.5 | $1.88 | 42% | 27 ✗ |
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 33 ✗ |
| Mason Redman ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 24 ✗ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 68% | 18 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 22.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 23 ✗ |
| Dylan Shiel ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.92 | 63% | 23 ✗ |
| Xavier Duursma | 19.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 14 ✓ |
| Jade Gresham ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 83% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)