# AFL Round 22 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 22 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 22 at a glance
- 9 matches · 21W–6L on 27 settled picks (78% strike rate) · best value +43.7% edge

## Round 22 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond v St Kilda | St Kilda @ $1.36 | St Kilda 84% | WON |
| GWS GIANTS v North Melbourne | GWS GIANTS @ $1.06 | GWS GIANTS 98% | WON |
| Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans | Brisbane Lions @ $1.27 | Brisbane Lions 81% | LOST |
| Melbourne v Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs @ $1.33 | Western Bulldogs 60% | WON |
| Hawthorn v Collingwood | Hawthorn @ $2.30 | Hawthorn 87% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v Fremantle | Fremantle @ $1.33 | Fremantle 92% | WON |
| Carlton v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.25 | Gold Coast SUNS 60% | WON |
| West Coast Eagles v Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows @ $1.03 | Adelaide Crows 90% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Essendon | Geelong Cats @ $1.01 | Geelong Cats 96% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Richmond v St Kilda
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 15.6% / St Kilda 84.4%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.36 (edge +10.8%) — model probability 84.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 162.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 37 · Predicted total: 137
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r22-richmond-v-st-kilda

### GWS GIANTS v North Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 97.8% / North Melbourne 2.2%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.06 (edge +3.5%) — model probability 97.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 60 · Predicted total: 202
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r22-gws-giants-v-north-melbourne

### Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Gabba · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 81.0% / Sydney Swans 19.0%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.27 (edge +2.3%) — model probability 81.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -22.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 21 · Predicted total: 173
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r22-brisbane-lions-v-sydney-swans

### Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 39.8% / Western Bulldogs 60.3%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.33 (edge -14.9%) — model probability 60.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +24.5 @ $1.91 (edge -14.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 8 · Predicted total: 178
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r22-melbourne-v-western-bulldogs

### Hawthorn v Collingwood
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 87.2% / Collingwood 12.8%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $2.30 (edge +43.7%) — model probability 87.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +43.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 162.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 6 · Predicted total: 165
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r22-hawthorn-v-collingwood

### Port Adelaide v Fremantle
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 8.3% / Fremantle 91.7%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.33 (edge +16.5%) — model probability 91.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +20.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 32 · Predicted total: 154
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r22-port-adelaide-v-fremantle

### Carlton v Gold Coast SUNS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 39.7% / Gold Coast SUNS 60.3%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.25 (edge -19.7%) — model probability 60.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +24.5 @ $1.91 (edge -19.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 9 · Predicted total: 152
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r22-carlton-v-gold-coast-suns

### West Coast Eagles v Adelaide Crows
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 10.3% / Adelaide Crows 89.7%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.03 (edge -7.4%) — model probability 89.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +59.5 @ $1.91 (edge -7.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 32 · Predicted total: 161
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r22-west-coast-eagles-v-adelaide-crows

### Geelong Cats v Essendon
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · GMHBA Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 96.5% / Essendon 3.5%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.01 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 96.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -69.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 181.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 55 · Predicted total: 197
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r22-geelong-cats-v-essendon

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/21 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/21.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/23 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/23.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/22
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Last updated: 2026-07-04 09:34 UTC