AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 95% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 54.3 but the actual margin was 36 points. Collingwood led 28–48 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
5%
Collingwood
95%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood are clear favourites here at 95%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Collingwood carry a 566-point ELO rating advantage (1779 vs 1213). Recent form favours Collingwood with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Richmond. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 54.3 points with a combined total of 143.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.04
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.4%
Line / Spread
Collingwood +52.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.4%
Total Points
Under 155.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | WWLLL | 62.6 |
Collingwood | WWWLL | 90.4 |
Avg Conceded
94.8
Richmond
68.0
Collingwood
Avg Margin
-32.2
Richmond
22.4
Collingwood
Disposals
346.6
Richmond
348.4
Collingwood
Inside 50s
50.0
Richmond
50.0
Collingwood
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
95%
Collingwood predicted to win by 54 points
Predicted total: 143 · Line: -54.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.05
Team Effectiveness
+0.15
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.