# Richmond v Collingwood — AFL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 57 – 93 Collingwood

_Collingwood see off Richmond._

Half time: 28 – 48 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 5% / Collingwood 95% · MCG · Sun, 27 July, 02:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: James Trezise (10' 1st), Tom Sims (30'), Taj Hotton (34' ×2), Steely Green (41'), Noah Balta (63'), Jonty Faull (67' Tipped ⚡) · Collingwood: Brody Mihocek (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Daicos (26' ×3), Daniel McStay (48' Tipped ⚡), Will Hoskin-Elliott (55' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tim Membrey (65' Tipped ⚡), Lachie Schultz (83' Tipped ⚡), Jamie Elliott (86' Tipped ⚡), Dan Houston (65')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 95% | Won |
| Richmond | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 54.3 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Richmond 57–93 Collingwood in AFL Round 20 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Richmond actually won a stat. Hit-outs, 38 to 30, courtesy of a ruck edge that never got the chance to matter. Everywhere else on the sheet, Collingwood had them covered, and by full time it was Collingwood 93, Richmond 57.

Start with what Richmond had going for it, because there wasn't much beyond the ruck contest. Richmond's marks inside 50 actually shaded it, 12 to 11, which says the forward line occasionally found a target in the right spot. Occasionally isn't a game plan, though. Richmond finished with 43 inside 50s to Collingwood's 56, and when you're not getting the ball forward as often as the opposition, a stray edge in marks inside that forward line doesn't do much for you.

The bigger issue was what happened once the ball hit the deck. Richmond won 27 clearances to Collingwood's 30, close enough on paper, but got beaten badly on the follow-up work. Collingwood laid 57 tackles to Richmond's 39, an 18-tackle gap that tells you which side was prepared to work without the footy in its hands. Richmond's disposal efficiency sat at 71.3%, Collingwood's at 74.4%, and across 423 total disposals to 365, that gap compounds fast over four quarters.

The scoreline backs all of it up. Richmond trailed 13 to 21 at quarter time, was down 28 to 48 by half time, and had slipped further to 47 to 82 by the last change. Nothing in that sequence suggests a Richmond side clawing its way back into it at any stage. It suggests a side that got outworked term after term and never found the patch of footy needed to change the shape of the contest.

Collingwood's numbers explain why. More intercepts, 76 to 69. More marks, 97 to 93. More contested possessions, 139 to 133. None of those gaps looks enormous in isolation, but stacked together across the game they add up to a 36 point win. Collingwood's positional ratings coming in had flagged exactly this kind of coverage: stronger in the midfield, 1049 to 1006, stronger up forward, 1044 to 963, stronger in defence, 1059 to 997, and rated ahead in the ruck too, even though Richmond ended up winning that battle on the day.

Form lines pointed the same way before a ball was bounced. Collingwood's average score over their last five games sat at 104.1 points against Richmond's 95.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 13 | 15 | 19 | 10 | 57 |
| Collingwood | 21 | 27 | 34 | 11 | 93 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| 365 | Disposals | **423** |
| 133 | Contested poss. | **139** |
| 27 | Clearances | **30** |
| 43 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| 93 | Marks | **97** |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| 39 | Tackles | **57** |
| **38** | Hit-outs | 30 |
| 69 | Intercepts | **76** |
| 71.3% | Disposal eff. | **74.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 95% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 54.3 but the actual margin was 36 points. Collingwood led 28–48 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.04 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 94.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +52.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 155.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 54 · Predicted total: 143

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 109 · 155 | 184 · 109 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 5.4/g |
| Disposals | 80/g | 113/g |
| Inside 50s | 16/g | 20.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.3/g | 10.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.1% | 68.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 39 · 68 | 38 · 53 |
| Goal Assists | 2.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.9/g | 20.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.6% | 67.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Collingwood |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 24 | 16 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.7/g | 12.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.6% | 80.7% |

**Who scores on Collingwood** — Defenders 1.18/g (lg 1.27) -7% · Forwards 3.94/g (lg 4.42) -11% · Midfielders 2.12/g (lg 2.39) -11%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.55/g (lg 3.61) +26% · Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.51) +20% · Midfielders 2.77/g (lg 2.39) +16%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 14 in 18g | 10/10g (1·0·2·2·1·0·0·0·1·3) | 1/9g | 30/47g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 13 in 15g | 10/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·1·3·0·3) | 1/4g | 25/40g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.65 AI 53% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 3/8g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.76 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 8 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 7/12g | 42% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 6 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 0/6g | 8/37g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 32/112g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/7g | 26/89g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/1g | 6/20g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/47g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (1·1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 16/27g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 5/23g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 8/12g | 18/100g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sims | KF | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 33% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/16g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 29/86g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jasper Alger | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (0·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 7% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 34' 89' |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/37g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/90g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 16/138g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 0 in 8g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 24/54g | 20% | — | 🏉 63' |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 46 in 18g | 30/10g (6·1·5·5·1·2·1·4·3·2) | 14/10g | 210/129g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 86' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 30 in 15g | 20/10g (1·4·1·2·4·1·1·2·2·2) | 11/8g | 148/88g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 38' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 24 in 16g | 15/10g (1·0·1·3·1·1·2·2·2·2) | 24/14g | 51/25g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 16 in 13g | 12/10g (0·1·3·0·2·2·0·4·0·0) | 10/14g | 40/35g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 11 in 18g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 29/54g | 62% | — | 🏉 26' 43' 79' |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 10 in 15g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 14/12g | 104/115g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.62 AI 53% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' 77' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 9 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·2) | 6/16g | 102/177g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 7 in 18g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/16g | 50/149g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·1·2·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/5g | 30/26g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 7 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·2·2·0·0) | 1/5g | 27/53g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/12g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/18g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 38/65g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 14/134g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/13g | 6/25g | 24% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 3/25g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/6g | 30/82g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Oleg Markov | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/34g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Dean | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 39/108g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/71g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Mitchell | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 25/70g | 18% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 25.5 | $1.91 | 53% | 0 ✓ |
| Jacob Hopper | 25.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 33 ✗ |
| Dion Prestia | 23.5 | $1.88 | 54% | 23 ✓ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 75% | 25 ✗ |
| Sam Banks | 20.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 19 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 20.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 25 ✗ |
| Jack Ross | 18.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 24 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 16.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 18 ✗ |
| Kamdyn McIntosh | 15.5 | $1.83 | 62% | 15 ✓ |

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 32.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 42 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos | 29.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 30 ✗ |
| Tom Mitchell | 24.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 29 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 22.5 | $1.80 | 46% | 24 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp | 21.5 | $1.83 | 48% | 16 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.85 | 66% | 18 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.89 | 65% | 23 ✗ |
| Darcy Cameron | 18.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 20 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)