AFL | Round 20

alphr.com.au

Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
GCSGCS
BRIBRI
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
STKSTK
MELMEL
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
HAWHAW
CARCAR
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
ESSESS
WBDWBD
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
NORNOR
GEEGEE
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
RICRIC
COLCOL
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
GWSGWS
SYDSYD
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
FREFRE
WCEWCE
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
ADEADE
PORPOR
GWS
GWS GIANTS
VS
SYD
Sydney Swans
ENGIE STADIUM • TUESDAY 24 FEB, 10:45 PM

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 77% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.5 but the actual margin was 44 points. Total score prediction of 164 was close to the actual 160, within 4 points. GWS GIANTS trailed 22–50 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 102–58. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability

AI Win Probability

77%GWS GIANTSFavourite

GWS GIANTS

77%

Sydney Swans

23%

✨

AI Match Overview

GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 77%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sydney Swans. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 10.5 points with a combined total of 164.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

GWS GIANTS to Win @1.45

Winner ✓

Edge

+7.9%

✓

Line / Spread

GWS GIANTS -14.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+7.9%

✓

Total Points

Under 166.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.6%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
GWS GIANTS
W
W
L
L
L
78.8
Sydney Swans
W
W
L
L
L
79.4

Avg Conceded

65.3

GWS GIANTS

87.0

Sydney Swans

Avg Margin

-2.7

GWS GIANTS

2.1

Sydney Swans

Disposals

373.3

GWS GIANTS

345.8

Sydney Swans

Inside 50s

54.5

GWS GIANTS

52.1

Sydney Swans

H2H History (Last 5)Sydney Swans lead 5-0
Apr 2026GWS 66 - 107 SYD
Apr 2025GWS 73 - 87 SYD
Sep 2024GWS 82 - 88 SYD
Jun 2024GWS 75 - 102 SYD
Apr 2024GWS 69 - 98 SYD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Sydney Swans hold the ELO advantage (1517 vs 1502), but the market favours GWS GIANTS (@1.45).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

GWS
1502Overall1517
SYD
ELO difference: -15 in favour of Sydney Swans

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1049Midfield1048
Even
1027Forwards1030
Even
1028Defence960
GWS +68
959Ruck1046
SYD +87

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GWS
Stat
SYD
2.3
Wins (Last 5)
1.6
78.8pts
Avg Score
79.4pts
65.3pts
Avg Conceded
87.0pts
-2.7pts
Avg Margin
2.1pts
373.3
Disposals
345.8
54.5
Inside 50s
52.1

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Swans
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
GIANTS
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
GIANTS
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Swans
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
GIANTS
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
GIANTS
7
H2H History6.0%
—

Model Confidence

77%

GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 164 · Line: +10.5

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

-0.03

Team Effectiveness

+0.06

8
Elite
2
Hard Worker
5
Efficient
7
Poor Game
Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

3/3 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props