# AFL Round 20 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 20 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 20 at a glance
- 9 matches · 23W–4L on 27 settled picks (85% strike rate) · best value +46.4% edge

## Round 20 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS v Brisbane Lions | Gold Coast SUNS @ $2.55 | Gold Coast SUNS 86% | WON |
| St Kilda v Melbourne | St Kilda @ $2.02 | St Kilda 67% | WON |
| Hawthorn v Carlton | Hawthorn @ $1.22 | Hawthorn 94% | WON |
| Essendon v Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs @ $1.04 | Western Bulldogs 94% | WON |
| North Melbourne v Geelong Cats | Geelong Cats @ $1.06 | Geelong Cats 95% | WON |
| Richmond v Collingwood | Collingwood @ $1.04 | Collingwood 95% | WON |
| GWS GIANTS v Sydney Swans | GWS GIANTS @ $1.45 | GWS GIANTS 77% | WON |
| Fremantle v West Coast Eagles | Fremantle @ $1.04 | Fremantle 95% | WON |
| Adelaide Crows v Port Adelaide | Adelaide Crows @ $1.17 | Adelaide Crows 85% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Gold Coast SUNS v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · People First Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 85.6% / Brisbane Lions 14.4%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $2.55 (edge +46.4%) — model probability 85.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +46.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 154.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 24 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r20-gold-coast-suns-v-brisbane-lions

### St Kilda v Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 66.8% / Melbourne 33.1%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $2.02 (edge +17.3%) — model probability 66.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +17.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 6 · Predicted total: 183
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r20-st-kilda-v-melbourne

### Hawthorn v Carlton
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 93.9% / Carlton 6.1%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.22 (edge +11.9%) — model probability 93.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -25.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 161.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 52 · Predicted total: 186
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r20-hawthorn-v-carlton

### Essendon v Western Bulldogs
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 5.7% / Western Bulldogs 94.3%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.04 (edge -1.9%) — model probability 94.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +53.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 52 · Predicted total: 157
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r20-essendon-v-western-bulldogs

### North Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 5.1% / Geelong Cats 94.9%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.06 (edge +50.0%) — model probability 94.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +50.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 55 · Predicted total: 157
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r20-north-melbourne-v-geelong-cats

### Richmond v Collingwood
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 5.2% / Collingwood 94.8%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.04 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 94.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +52.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 155.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 54 · Predicted total: 143
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r20-richmond-v-collingwood

### GWS GIANTS v Sydney Swans
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · ENGIE Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 76.9% / Sydney Swans 23.1%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.45 (edge +7.9%) — model probability 76.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 11 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r20-gws-giants-v-sydney-swans

### Fremantle v West Coast Eagles
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 94.7% / West Coast Eagles 5.3%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.04 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 94.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -49.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 50 · Predicted total: 171
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r20-fremantle-v-west-coast-eagles

### Adelaide Crows v Port Adelaide
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 84.9% / Port Adelaide 15.1%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.17 (edge -60.0%) — model probability 84.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -27.5 @ $1.91 (edge -60.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 146.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 28 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r20-adelaide-crows-v-port-adelaide

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/19 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/19.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/21 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/21.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/20
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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:34 UTC