Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
67%
Melbourne
33%
AI Match Overview
St Kilda are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO — but St Kilda counter with Midfield ELO which tips the scales. Melbourne carry a 28-point ELO rating advantage (1351 vs 1324). Recent form favours Melbourne with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Melbourne by 5.8 points with a combined total of 183.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @2.02
Winner ✓
Edge
+17.3%
Line / Spread
Melbourne +2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+17.3%
Total Points
Over 168.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | LLLLL | 77.2 |
Melbourne | WLLLL | 83.8 |
Avg Conceded
97.6
St Kilda
89.6
Melbourne
Avg Margin
-20.4
St Kilda
-5.8
Melbourne
Disposals
350.6
St Kilda
363.0
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
St Kilda
50.0
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
St Kilda predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 183 · Line: -5.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.28
Team Effectiveness
+0.17
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.