# Adelaide Crows v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 133 – 35 Port Adelaide

_Adelaide Crows run riot over Port Adelaide._

Half time: 50 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 85% / Port Adelaide 15% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 26 July, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Alex Neal-Bullen (11' 1st), Ben Keays (13' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Sam Berry (21' ×2), Riley Thilthorpe (40' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (51' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Izak Rankine (65' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Dawson (81'), Reilly OBrien (94'), Final quarter (32m 0s)Riley Thilthorpe (68'), Jake Soligo (78' ×2), Luke Pedlar (93'), Darcy Fogarty (94' Tipped ⚡) · Port Adelaide: Jackson Mead (27'), Jordon Sweet (29'), Jed McEntee (32' ×2), Mitch Georgiades (90' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 85% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 15% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 28.1 predicted → 98 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Port Adelaide Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 20, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 133–35 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 20 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows led from the first bounce and never let Port Adelaide within reach of the contest. Quarter time had it at 24-19, still a game. By half time it was 50-21, and by then Port Adelaide were chasing a scoreboard that had already got away from them. Three-quarter time read 83-33. The final margin was 98 points, 133 to 35.

That's not a tight one that opened up late. That's a team that built a lead in the first quarter, doubled it by half time, and then kept adding to it because nothing Port Adelaide tried in response worked.

The disposal count tells you why. Adelaide Crows finished with 368 to Port Adelaide's 300, and they used it far better, hitting targets at 60.0% against Port Adelaide's 48.4%. That's the sort of efficiency gap that turns territory into scoreboard pressure every time you go forward, and Adelaide Crows went forward plenty, 65 inside 50s to 43.

What they did with that territory mattered just as much. Fourteen marks inside 50 to four is a brutal split, it means Adelaide Crows were finding targets in the right spot and Port Adelaide's defence, rated the stronger unit going in at 1040 to 978, simply couldn't hold the connection. Adelaide Crows also won the ball back constantly, 96 intercepts to 78, and buried Port Adelaide under pressure with 103 tackles to 73.

The clearance count, 52 to 45 in Adelaide Crows's favour, is worth a second look given Port Adelaide came in rated the stronger midfield unit, 1021 to 1005, and the stronger ruck by some margin, 1077 to 975. On paper Port Adelaide should have won that battle. On the day they didn't, and once Adelaide Crows had first use of the footy that often, the rest of the stat sheet more or less wrote itself.

Port Adelaide arrived on the back of decent form, an average winning margin of 17.3 points across their last five and more disposals per game than Adelaide Crows, 368.6 to 351.5. None of that showed up here. Whatever they'd been doing well recently didn't survive contact with an Adelaide Crows side that outworked them at the source and cut them off in defence.

Alphr's model had Adelaide Crows winning at 85% probability, which held up easily. The total score prediction of 164 was close too, four points under the actual 168. The margin was the miss: the model had Adelaide Crows by 28.1, and they won by 98. Even a heavy favourite going by the ratings, 1514 to 1572 in Port Adelaide's favour before a ball was kicked, doesn't usually translate into a 98-point beating. Sometimes the price is right and the size of it just runs away from you.

Three from three on the picks that mattered, wrong on the one number that measures how far off the pace Port Adelaide actually were. They'll want this one back quickly.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 24 | 26 | 33 | 50 | 133 |
| Port Adelaide | 19 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 35 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **368** | Disposals | 300 |
| **172** | Contested poss. | 149 |
| **52** | Clearances | 45 |
| **65** | Inside 50s | 43 |
| **48** | Marks | 37 |
| **14** | Marks inside 50 | 4 |
| **103** | Tackles | 73 |
| **51** | Hit-outs | 46 |
| **96** | Intercepts | 78 |
| **60.0%** | Disposal eff. | 48.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 85% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 28.1 but the actual margin was 98 points. Total score prediction of 164 was close to the actual 168, within 4 points. Adelaide Crows led 50–21 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 98. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.17 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 84.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -27.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 146.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 28 · Predicted total: 164

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 186 · 121 | 132 · 146 |
| Goal Assists | 5.1/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 100/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.7/g | 16.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9/g | 8.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 68.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 70 · 43 | 35 · 53 |
| Goal Assists | 5.3/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 143/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.7/g | 21.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.9/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.1% | 68.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 17 | 31 · 28 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.4/g | 13.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.7% | 74.8% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.51/g (lg 1.27) +19% · Forwards 4.48/g (lg 4.45) +1% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.51) +0%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.38/g (lg 1.27) +9% · Midfielders 2.31/g (lg 2.36) -2% · Forwards 4.22/g (lg 4.45) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 41 in 18g | 21/10g (3·0·2·2·1·0·5·0·6·2) | 11/7g | 51/41g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' 78' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 34 in 17g | 16/10g (3·4·1·2·0·0·1·2·3·0) | 15/9g | 111/68g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 94' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 28 in 18g | 14/10g (2·0·1·3·3·2·0·2·0·1) | 7/14g | 61/71g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 90' 96' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 28 in 17g | 12/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·2·2·2·2) | 44/20g | 279/125g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' 84' 81' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 25 in 18g | 15/10g (2·1·1·1·0·1·1·5·1·2) | 14/6g | 63/33g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 14 in 18g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 5/11g | 14/22g | 42% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 13 in 18g | 8/10g (0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 4/10g | 26/51g | 44% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 10 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 0/3g | 7/15g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 9 in 18g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 17/44g | 32% | — | 🏉 78' 87' |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 4/10g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Luke Pedlar | FWD | 5 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·1) | 5/3g | 19/18g | 58% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/36g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 5/38g | 28% | — | 🏉 21' 95' |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 8/76g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 18/64g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/12g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/44g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Cook | MID | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (1·2·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 6/14g | 37% | — | — |
| – | Chayce Jones | DEF | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 15/51g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/27g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/26g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/34g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/21g | 18/135g | 4% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 47 in 18g | 29/10g (2·1·3·1·7·1·5·4·3·2) | 8/6g | 91/48g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 88% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 90' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 18 in 17g | 10/10g (2·1·0·0·2·1·2·0·2·0) | 5/17g | 44/117g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 12 in 17g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 9/10g | 53% | — | — |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 8 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/12g | 76/80g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (3·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 17/15g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.83 AI 57% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Lukosius | FWD | 6 in 5g | 12/10g (2·2·0·0·2·1·0·3·0·2) | 8/7g | 4/8g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 59% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 6 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 15/56g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 19/24g | 65/133g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 8/28g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/18g | 20% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 24/59g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 11/21g | 54/134g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/31g | 12% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 10/70g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Jackson | FWD | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 7/41g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 30/73g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/62g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/23g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jed McEntee | FWD | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 13/28g | 52% | — | 🏉 32' 88' |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/16g | 3% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | 23.5 | $1.82 | 63% | 21 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 22.5 | $2.00 | 49% | 24 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 73% | 35 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.92 | 69% | 26 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell | 18.5 | $1.93 | 52% | 19 ✗ |
| Ben Keays | 17.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 21 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine | 17.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 15 ✓ |
| Wayne Milera | 16.5 | $1.94 | 46% | 18 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 34 ✗ |
| Connor Rozee | 26.5 | $1.80 | 58% | 22 ✓ |
| Ollie Wines | 24.5 | $1.89 | 61% | 25 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 14 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.80 | 68% | 24 ✗ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 18.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 15 ✓ |
| Travis Boak | 18.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 11 ✓ |
| Willem Drew | 17.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)