AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 85% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 28.1 but the actual margin was 98 points. Total score prediction of 164 was close to the actual 168, within 4 points. Adelaide Crows led 50–21 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 98. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
85%
Port Adelaide
15%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 85%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. Port Adelaide are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Adelaide Crows counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Port Adelaide carry a 59-point ELO rating advantage (1572 vs 1514). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Adelaide Crows. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 28.1 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.17
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.6%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -27.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.6%
Total Points
Over 146.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | W W L L L | 104.9 |
Port Adelaide | W W W L L | 101.7 |
Avg Conceded
96.9
Adelaide Crows
88.7
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
14.0
Adelaide Crows
17.3
Port Adelaide
Disposals
351.5
Adelaide Crows
368.6
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
51.9
Adelaide Crows
50.1
Port Adelaide
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1572 vs 1514), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.17).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
85%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 28 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: +28.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.42
Team Effectiveness
-0.26
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.