AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 85% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 28.1 but the actual margin was 98 points. Total score prediction of 164 was close to the actual 168 — within 4 points. Adelaide Crows led 50–21 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 98. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
85%
Port Adelaide
15%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 85%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Adelaide Crows carry a 358-point ELO rating advantage (1801 vs 1443). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 28.1 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.17
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.6%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -27.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.6%
Total Points
Over 146.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | WWWWL | 94.4 |
Port Adelaide | WWLLL | 78.0 |
Avg Conceded
64.4
Adelaide Crows
79.8
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
30.0
Adelaide Crows
-1.8
Port Adelaide
Disposals
352.2
Adelaide Crows
332.6
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
50.0
Adelaide Crows
50.0
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
85%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 28 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: +28.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.42
Team Effectiveness
-0.26
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.