# North Melbourne v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 49 – 150 Geelong Cats

_Geelong Cats run riot over North Melbourne._

Half time: 22 – 76 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 5% / Geelong Cats 95% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 26 July, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Paul Curtis (9' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Cameron Zurhaar (10' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jack Darling (84' Tipped ⚡), Finnbar Maley (97') · Geelong Cats: Jeremy Cameron (12' ×10 Tipped ⚡), Shannon Neale (24' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Jack Bowes (47'), Gryan Miers (49'), Rhys Stanley (51'), Bailey Smith (56'), Lawson Humphries (87'), Tyson Stengle (96' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 95% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 54.5 predicted → 101 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

North Melbourne 49–150 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 20 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seventy-seven inside 50s to 36. That's not a game plan working, that's a game plan not existing. Geelong Cats belted North Melbourne 150-49 at Marvel Stadium, and the gap in forward entries tells you most of what you need to know before you even look at the scoreboard.

The timeline confirms it wasn't a late collapse, it was a beating from the opening bounce. North Melbourne trailed 14-30 at quarter time, were down 22-76 by half time, and had fallen to 23-129 at the last change. Geelong Cats scored 46 points in that second term alone. By the time three-quarter time hit, the margin was already 106 points. Whatever happened in the last quarter was just detail.

The forward half numbers explain the flood. Geelong Cats piled forward 77 times to North Melbourne's 36, and once inside 50 they were ruthless, taking 27 marks in there to North Melbourne's 9. That's a team locking the ball in its front half and making the most of it, not just visiting more often.

It started in the middle. Geelong Cats won the clearance count 44-34 and the hit-out battle 50-31, a ruck mismatch that lines up exactly with the pre-match ratings, which had Geelong Cats's ruck at 971 to North Melbourne's 933 and their midfield at 1001 to 964. Advantages on paper turned into first use of the ball on the day, and from there Geelong Cats simply had it more, 375 disposals to 358, and did more with it, 77.4% efficiency to 73.0%.

Defensively North Melbourne had no answer either. Geelong Cats read the ball in the air and on the deck better all day, finishing with 58 intercepts to 48, and North Melbourne's own defence rating of 1013, the one category where they actually graded out stronger than Geelong Cats pre-match, never got the chance to show up. You can't defend what you never get to see, and with 77 inside 50s against them, North Melbourne spent the day defending, not attacking.

North Melbourne came into this off decent recent form, a 2.0 win average across their last five and a scoring average of 105.7, well above Geelong Cats's 85.8 over the same stretch. None of it travelled. Geelong Cats's forward rating of 1005 against North Melbourne's 928 turned out to be the more honest number on the day.

Alphr's model had Geelong Cats winning at 95% probability, which held up fine. Where it fell over was the margin, tipped at 54.5 points against an actual result of 101, and the total, picked at 157 against a final tally of 199. Two out of three isn't a bad return, but the size of this one blew straight past the model's ceiling.

Geelong Cats covered the 46.5-point line with room to spare. For North Melbourne, there's not much to salvage from a day where the inside 50 count alone was more than double, and everything downstream of it followed the same pattern.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 14 | 8 | 1 | 26 | 49 |
| Geelong Cats | 30 | 46 | 53 | 21 | 150 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| 358 | Disposals | **375** |
| 116 | Contested poss. | **132** |
| 34 | Clearances | **44** |
| 36 | Inside 50s | **77** |
| 100 | Marks | **105** |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **27** |
| 57 | Tackles | **67** |
| 31 | Hit-outs | **50** |
| 48 | Intercepts | **58** |
| 73.0% | Disposal eff. | **77.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 95% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 54.5 but the actual margin was 101 points. The game's 199 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 157. Geelong Cats led 22–76 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 101. The model went 2/3 on this match. Geelong Cats covered the 46.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.06 (edge +0.5%) — model probability 94.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 55 · Predicted total: 157

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 114 · 186 | 194 · 139 |
| Goal Assists | 3.3/g | 6.3/g |
| Disposals | 87/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.6/g | 21.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.9/g | 10.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 67.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 35 · 56 | 63 · 47 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 137/g | 129/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.7/g | 21.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.4% | 69.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 54 · 22 | 9 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 2.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.6/g | 10.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.1% | 80.8% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.85/g (lg 3.6) +7% · Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.51) +2% · Forwards 4.32/g (lg 4.42) -2%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.67/g (lg 0.51) +31% · Forwards 5.75/g (lg 4.42) +30% · Key Forwards 4.63/g (lg 3.6) +29%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 32 in 18g | 19/10g (2·4·3·2·0·3·0·2·3·0) | 6/8g | 90/61g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 65' 81' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 28 in 15g | 16/10g (3·3·1·3·0·2·1·1·2·0) | 4/5g | 44/32g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 72' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 17 in 17g | 10/10g (0·2·2·0·0·1·1·0·3·1) | 22/14g | 58/38g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 84' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 11 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/12g | 31/77g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 10 in 18g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/15g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 10 in 18g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/7g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 10 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 15/20g | 34/38g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 9/27g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 21/53g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 14/39g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (2·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 3/9g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/19g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Finnbar Maley | KF | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 50% | — | 🏉 97' |
| – | Robert Hansen Jr | DEF | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Brynn Teakle | RUC | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (1·2·0·1·1·1·2·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 6/7g | 57% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 30/95g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/19g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/21g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/11g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Wil Dawson | RUC | 0 in 4g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zac Banch | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 58 in 18g | 40/10g (2·7·6·5·0·6·4·4·1·5) | 32/11g | 58/23g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 98% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.75 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 14' 58' 61' 71' 81' 97' 101' 68' 87' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 27 in 18g | 21/10g (1·1·5·1·0·4·1·3·5·0) | 4/2g | 3/3g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 37' 89' 91' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 24 in 18g | 11/10g (2·2·1·1·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 5/4g | 3/2g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 23 in 16g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·0·2·0·2·0·2) | 13/17g | 32/26g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 22 in 16g | 15/10g (1·0·2·1·2·2·4·1·0·2) | 14/6g | 7/7g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 96' 76' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 20 in 15g | 14/10g (2·1·2·1·0·3·0·1·1·3) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 15 in 18g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·2·1·1) | 12/8g | 5/7g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 10 in 13g | 9/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·1·2·1·1) | 3/8g | 3/14g | 50% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 9 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 3/5g | 2/4g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 8 in 16g | 7/10g (1·0·0·2·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 9/9g | 3/8g | 54% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 6 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/20g | 10/30g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 16/47g | 28% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 28/40g | 18% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 3 in 6g | 8/10g (2·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 7/9g | 17/22g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 18% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/14g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.91 | 84% | 32 ✗ |
| Harry Sheezel | 27.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 27 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 21 ✓ |
| Caleb Daniel | 25.5 | $1.91 | 59% | 18 ✓ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 67% | 24 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 22.5 | $1.83 | 58% | 31 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 19.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 24 ✗ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 28.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 43 ✗ |
| Max Holmes | 28.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 29 ✗ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.82 | 71% | 20 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart | 20.5 | $1.85 | 58% | 13 ✓ |
| Tom Atkins | 19.5 | $1.83 | 64% | 25 ✗ |
| Shaun Mannagh ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.95 | 66% | 19 ✗ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 17.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 16 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 13 ✓ |
| Jeremy Cameron ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.76 | 74% | 22 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)