AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 52.3 but the actual margin was 93 points. The game's 193 points came in 36 points higher than the predicted 157. Western Bulldogs led 17–65 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 93. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
6%
Western Bulldogs
94%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 94%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 116-point ELO rating advantage (1604 vs 1488). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 52.3 points with a combined total of 157.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.04
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.9%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +53.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.9%
Total Points
Under 177.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | W W W L L | 82.9 |
Western Bulldogs | W W W W L | 109.6 |
Avg Conceded
92.5
Essendon
81.3
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
6.0
Essendon
26.0
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
334.0
Essendon
335.1
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
45.4
Essendon
48.4
Western Bulldogs
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
94%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 52 points
Predicted total: 157 · Line: -52.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.05
Team Effectiveness
-0.19
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.