# Essendon v Western Bulldogs — AFL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 50 – 143 Western Bulldogs

_Western Bulldogs muzzle Essendon._

Half time: 17 – 65 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 6% / Western Bulldogs 94% · Marvel Stadium · Fri, 25 July, 07:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Liam McMahon (21' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Isaac Kako (65'), Nate Caddy (81' Tipped ⚡), Peter Wright (64' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Archie Perkins (85') · Western Bulldogs: Aaron Naughton (3' ×5 1st Tipped 🎯), Sam Darcy (11' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Marcus Bontempelli (13' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ed Richards (14' ×2), Ryley Sanders (42'), Rhylee West (64' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Caleb Poulter (88')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 94% | Won |
| Essendon | 6% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 52.3 predicted → 93 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs Western Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Essendon 50–143 Western Bulldogs in AFL Round 20 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at Marvel Stadium had Western Bulldogs up 65-17, and if anyone thought Essendon might scrap their way back into it, the third quarter put that notion to bed. The Bulldogs added another 44 points before three-quarter time to lead 109-30, and by full time it was 143-50. A 93-point margin, no repair job in sight.

The ruck battle actually went Essendon's way, 40 hit-outs to 29, which tells you the story here wasn't about first use of the footy. It was about what happened after. Western Bulldogs won clearances 39-34 and turned that ascendancy into territory, going inside 50 fifty-six times to Essendon's 46. Once it got there, the gulf widened further: 18 marks inside 50 for the Bulldogs against just 10 for Essendon.

Disposal numbers back up the general theme of one side controlling the footy and the other chasing it. Western Bulldogs finished with 402 disposals to 336, at 76.8% efficiency compared to Essendon's 73.4%. The gap in marks was the most brutal figure on the sheet: 126 to 71. That's not a contest, that's one team taking the ball forward with clean hands while the other tries to spoil what it can.

Pre-match, the ratings had this pegged. Western Bulldogs came in rated 1604 against Essendon's 1488, with clear edges everywhere that matters: forwards 1137 to 966, defence 1149 to 979, midfield 1147 to 1037. Form lines said the same thing. The Bulldogs arrived averaging 109.6 points a game across their last five with an average winning margin of 26.02, while Essendon were averaging 82.9 scored and 92.5 conceded, a side used to losing tight rather than getting run over.

What nobody predicted was quite how far it would run. Alphr's model had Western Bulldogs favourites at 94% and nailed the winner, but the margin read of 52.3 points wasn't close to the 93-point reality. The projected total of 157 undercooked it too, with the game producing 193 points between the two sides. Two out of three isn't a bad night's work for the model, but the margin miss here was a big one, and the Bulldogs comfortably covered the 53.5-point line.

Essendon didn't fold everywhere. Winning the hit-out count and staying competitive in tackles, 55 to 58, and intercepts, 61 to 64, suggests the contest at ground level wasn't a total surrender. But none of that mattered once the ball got loose and moving forward, because Western Bulldogs simply had more of it, used it better, and hurt Essendon every time it went inside 50.

By the last change it was 109-30 and academic. The final quarter just confirmed the shape of the afternoon, Essendon adding 20, the Bulldogs another 34. Wins and misses, all of it, but this one was decided long before three-quarter time and never looked like changing course.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 14 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 50 |
| Western Bulldogs | 41 | 24 | 44 | 34 | 143 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 336 | Disposals | **402** |
| 123 | Contested poss. | **130** |
| 34 | Clearances | **39** |
| 46 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| 71 | Marks | **126** |
| 10 | Marks inside 50 | **18** |
| 55 | Tackles | **58** |
| **40** | Hit-outs | 29 |
| 61 | Intercepts | **64** |
| 73.4% | Disposal eff. | **76.8%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 52.3 but the actual margin was 93 points. The game's 193 points came in 36 points higher than the predicted 157. Western Bulldogs led 17–65 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 93. The model went 2/3 on this match. Western Bulldogs covered the 53.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.04 (edge -1.9%) — model probability 94.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +53.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 52 · Predicted total: 157

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 92 · 151 | 146 · 144 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 101/g | 91/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.3/g | 14.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.4/g | 7.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 69.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 65 · 53 | 102 · 56 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 6.3/g |
| Disposals | 148/g | 177/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.9/g | 30.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.2/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.6% | 72.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 12 · 27 | 32 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 0.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.3/g | 10.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.5% | 79.1% |

**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.62/g (lg 2.39) +10% · Key Forwards 3.46/g (lg 3.59) -4% · Forwards 3.85/g (lg 4.42) -13%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.52/g (lg 1.27) +20% · Forwards 4.97/g (lg 4.42) +12% · Key Forwards 3.9/g (lg 3.59) +9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 22 in 13g | 14/10g (0·1·2·2·3·2·1·1·0·2) | 16/8g | 77/38g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' 67' |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 19 in 16g | 13/10g (2·3·0·1·2·0·0·1·3·1) | 0/1g | 17/10g | 61% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 81' |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 13 in 15g | 8/10g (3·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 28/33g | 46% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 10 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/6g | 52% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 9 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 6/9g | 77/90g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 8 in 17g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 30/87g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 7 in 15g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 12/32g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (3·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Matt Guelfi | FWD | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 3/4g | 24/37g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Luamon Lual | MID | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 12/47g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 16/46g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Liam McMahon | KF | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.48 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 30' |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 11/20g | 60/131g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 8/61g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 12/53g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/28g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oskar Smartt | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Johnson | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 38 in 18g | 23/10g (0·1·3·0·3·1·3·5·5·2) | 10/8g | 122/74g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 53' 78' 90' 71' |
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 32 in 12g | 27/10g (2·5·2·0·3·5·3·4·2·1) | 1/1g | 35/20g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 11' 23' 55' 85' 81' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 29 in 18g | 17/10g (2·4·1·0·1·2·1·1·1·4) | 7/3g | 39/38g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' 73' 88' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 20 in 18g | 13/10g (3·1·3·1·2·0·2·0·0·1) | 5/7g | 30/44g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 15 in 18g | 10/10g (1·2·2·1·1·1·0·0·2·0) | 3/8g | 26/66g | 52% | — | 🏉 14' 87' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 15 in 13g | 10/10g (1·2·0·0·0·3·1·2·0·1) | 13/14g | 144/130g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 62' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 14 in 18g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·4·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/16g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 13 in 16g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 4/2g | 17/36g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 13 in 16g | 8/10g (2·1·2·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/6g | 22/38g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 12 in 17g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 7/17g | 32% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 11 in 18g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·0·2·0·1) | 2/8g | 44/69g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 7/12g | 44/119g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 6/11g | 50/86g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 21/79g | 28% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 6/24g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 3/27g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 35/42g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/12g | 38/98g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Riley Garcia | MID | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 8/19g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Poulter | FWD | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/14g | 26% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Jedd Busslinger | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oskar Baker | FWD | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/16g | 18% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 28.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 30 ✗ |
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 26 ✗ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 27 ✗ |
| Mason Redman | 21.5 | $1.89 | 57% | 23 ✗ |
| Dylan Shiel | 20.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 29 ✗ |
| Jordan Ridley ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 9 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 20.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 22 ✗ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale | 28.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 20 ✓ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 24 ✓ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 26.5 | $1.90 | 54% | 35 ✗ |
| Tom Liberatore | 26.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 22 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 24.5 | $1.79 | 57% | 23 ✓ |
| Ryley Sanders | 21.5 | $1.85 | 55% | 17 ✓ |
| Tim English ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 22 ✗ |
| Lachlan Bramble | 19.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 23 ✗ |
| Bailey Williams | 19.5 | $1.85 | 48% | 26 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)