# Fremantle v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 126 – 77 West Coast Eagles

_Fremantle put West Coast Eagles to the sword._

Half time: 52 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 95% / West Coast Eagles 5% · Optus Stadium · Sat, 26 July, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Isaiah Dudley (9' 1st), Jye Amiss (19' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Michael Frederick (25' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Hayden Young (29' ×3), Patrick Voss (78' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (37m 28s)Luke Jackson (66'), Shai Bolton (67' Tipped ⚡), Murphy Reid (84' Tipped ⚡), Sam Switkowski (88') · West Coast Eagles: Tyler Brockman (14'), Harley Reid (42' ×2), Tim Kelly (45' ×2), Jamie Cripps (60'), Liam Baker (72' ×2), Liam Ryan (96'), Tyrell Dewar (97'), Elijah Hewett (99')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 95% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 50.2 predicted → 49 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Fremantle 126–77 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 20 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-six clearances to twenty-seven. That's the number that explains Fremantle 126, West Coast Eagles 77 at Optus Stadium, a 49-point beating that started at the coalface and never let up.

Win the ball at source that often and the rest of the stat sheet falls into line. Fremantle had 342 disposals to 289, ran it inside 50 fifty-six times to 42, and did it all at 73.2% efficiency against West Coast's 69.4%. Marks inside 50 went 13 to 10 as well. West Coast actually won the overall marking count, 79 to 72, which tells you they had the ball at times. They just couldn't win it back at the source, or use it when they got it forward.

The scoreboard had this one decided early. Fremantle led 40 to 12 at quarter time, a lopsided opening term that set the tone for the whole afternoon. By half time it was 52 to 30, and the margin held roughly steady through the third quarter, 76 to 46 at the last change. From there Fremantle simply kept adding, outscoring the Eagles 50 to 31 in the last quarter to blow it out to 49 points. No single burst won it. It was four quarters of the same story.

The ruck battle deserves a mention too. Fremantle's 42 hit-outs to 33 lines up with a 1025 to 944 ruck rating edge coming in, and on this evidence it was the difference. Extra taps mean first use of the footy, and first use of the footy is how you end up with 46 clearances. West Coast actually rated higher in the midfield, 1042 to 995, and in the forward line, 1056 to 1031, on paper. None of it showed up where it counted. Contested possessions went Fremantle's way 131 to 108, and that's the sort of number that overrides a paper advantage every time.

West Coast's form line coming in had them at 3.9 wins from their last five against Fremantle's 1.7, averaging more disposals a game too, 374 to 347. Reputation and recent history didn't travel to Perth with them. Tackles were dead level at 45 apiece, so it wasn't a lack of defensive effort. It was a lack of the footy to defend with in the first place.

Alphr's model had Fremantle winning at 95% probability, rated them 1543 to West Coast's 1499, and pegged the margin at 50.2 points. Final margin: 49. That's about as tight as a pre-match read gets. The total was the one miss, tipped at 171, with the game finishing at 203, 32 points over. Open, high-scoring footy from both ends, just entirely one-sided in the middle. Three from three on the headline calls, which is a clean sweep by any measure.

For West Coast, there's not much to salvage beyond the marking numbers and a level tackle count. Everything that decides an AFL game these days, clearances, contested ball, inside 50 differential, went the other way. Fremantle didn't need to be flashy. They just kept winning the footy first.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 40 | 12 | 24 | 50 | 126 |
| West Coast Eagles | 12 | 18 | 16 | 31 | 77 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **342** | Disposals | 289 |
| **131** | Contested poss. | 108 |
| **46** | Clearances | 27 |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| 72 | Marks | **79** |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| 45 | Tackles | 45 |
| **42** | Hit-outs | 33 |
| **56** | Intercepts | 51 |
| **73.2%** | Disposal eff. | 69.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 95% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Fremantle by 50.2 vs the actual margin of 49 points. The game's 203 points came in 32 points higher than the predicted 171. Fremantle led 52–30 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 49. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.04 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 94.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -49.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 50 · Predicted total: 171

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 139 · 136 | 122 · 181 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 76/g | 117/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.9/g | 21.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.1/g | 7.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.6% | 66.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 67 · 51 | 35 · 67 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 158/g | 91/g |
| Inside 50s | 28.4/g | 13.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.9% | 70.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 9 · 20 |
| Goal Assists | 0.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 112/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 9/g | 12.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.2% | 74.9% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.8/g (lg 0.51) +57% · Midfielders 3.48/g (lg 2.39) +46% · Key Forwards 4.56/g (lg 3.6) +27%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.45/g (lg 2.39) +3% · Key Forwards 3.53/g (lg 3.6) -2% · Forwards 4.03/g (lg 4.42) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 32 in 18g | 12/10g (2·1·0·0·0·3·3·2·1·0) | 9/5g | 58/39g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 77% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 22 in 18g | 9/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·2·2) | 11/5g | 51/35g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' 76' 93' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 22 in 18g | 11/10g (1·3·1·1·0·2·0·1·2·0) | 13/8g | 61/53g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' 26' 38' 75' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 22 in 14g | 19/10g (2·1·1·3·3·1·0·1·1·6) | 1/1g | 13/13g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' 78' 102' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 22 in 17g | 14/10g (1·3·1·3·1·2·1·0·2·0) | 16/9g | 32/19g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 18 in 18g | 10/10g (1·1·4·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 10/10g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 84' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 14 in 15g | 11/10g (0·0·1·0·2·3·2·2·0·1) | 6/7g | 33/38g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 66% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 10 in 12g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 2/1g | 7/7g | 64% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 9 in 12g | 9/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·1·1·3·0) | 5/8g | 37/51g | 56% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 31/85g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 6 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·1) | 5/9g | 23/63g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 4/9g | 23/61g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 4 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 28/58g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 1/7g | 11/41g | 32% | — | 🏉 29' 30' 87' |
| – | Nathan O'Driscoll | MID | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 10/18g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 7/12g | 12/32g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 8/49g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 21/64g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/34g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 2/86g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/20g | 5% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 17 in 16g | 10/10g (1·2·3·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 22/22g | 97/81g | 76% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 17 in 15g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·1·1·2) | 11/10g | 73/64g | 60% | — | 🏉 96' |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 12 in 18g | 8/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 4/3g | 13/20g | 44% | — | 🏉 42' 87' |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 11 in 15g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 5/15g | 48% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 10 in 12g | 10/10g (0·0·2·2·0·3·0·1·1·1) | 0/5g | 17/40g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 9 in 15g | 7/10g (3·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 11/17g | 36% | — | 🏉 99' |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 6/5g | 8/9g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 5 in 4g | 5/4g (1·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/2g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.62 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 2/5g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/13g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 30% | — | 🏉 97' |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/37g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Clay Hall | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/8g | 4/18g | 32% | — | 🏉 72' 80' |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/10g | 20/59g | 18% | — | 🏉 45' 92' |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/62g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/30g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 4/79g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/30g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/23g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.89 | 66% | 20 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 29.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 32 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark | 25.5 | $1.78 | 54% | 21 ✓ |
| Hayden Young | 22.5 | $1.75 | 66% | 23 ✗ |
| Luke Ryan | 21.5 | $1.95 | 42% | 15 ✓ |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | 19.5 | $1.90 | 52% | 8 ✓ |
| Jaeger O'Meara | 18.5 | $1.86 | 39% | 16 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 18.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 25 ✗ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Duggan ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 65% | 11 ✓ |
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.88 | 76% | 21 ✓ |
| Liam Ryan ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 99% | 11 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 21.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 24 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 21.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 15 ✓ |
| Clay Hall | 17.5 | $1.78 | 57% | 14 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric | 16.5 | $1.87 | 44% | 21 ✗ |
| Brady Hough ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)