AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 95% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Fremantle by 50.2 vs the actual margin of 49 points. The game's 203 points came in 32 points higher than the predicted 171. Fremantle led 52–30 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 49. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
95%
West Coast Eagles
5%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 95%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Fremantle carry a 633-point ELO rating advantage (1660 vs 1027). Recent form favours Fremantle with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for West Coast Eagles. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 50.2 points with a combined total of 171.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.04
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.4%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.4%
Total Points
Over 164.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | WWWWL | 84.8 |
West Coast Eagles | LLLLL | 56.0 |
Avg Conceded
73.6
Fremantle
95.4
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
11.2
Fremantle
-39.4
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
342.4
Fremantle
335.2
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.0
Fremantle
50.0
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
95%
Fremantle predicted to win by 50 points
Predicted total: 171 · Line: +50.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.42
Team Effectiveness
+0.15
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.