# Hawthorn v Carlton — AFL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 85 – 61 Carlton

_Hawthorn see off Carlton._

Half time: 51 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 94% / Carlton 6% · MCG · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Mitch Lewis (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Connor Macdonald (11'), Josh Ward (16'), Jack Gunston (26' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Calsher Dear (32' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harry Morrison (40'), Nick Watson (70' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (27m 56s)Mitch Lewis (64') · Carlton: Corey Durdin (23'), Charlie Curnow (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Will White (59' ×2), Jesse Motlop (77'), Sam Docherty (91'), Adam Cerra (68'), Harry McKay (85' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 94% | Won |
| Carlton | 6% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 51.5 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Hawthorn 85–61 Carlton in AFL Round 20 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty-seven points to eight at the first change. That's the number that mattered most in this one, because from there Carlton was always playing catch-up on a scoreboard that had already got away from them.

Hawthorn 85, Carlton 61 at the MCG, and the gap was locked in early and never seriously threatened. By half-time it was 51-21. By the last change it was 76-46. Carlton actually won the final quarter on the ledger, outscoring Hawthorn 15 points to 9, but by then it was academic. The contest was decided long before the last siren.

What makes the result interesting is that Carlton went into this rated the stronger side pretty much everywhere. Better midfield rating, 1065 to 988. Better forwards, 1098 to 1027. Better defence, 1057 to 993. Better ruck on paper too, 1122 to 1029. Carlton had also been the form team by margin, averaging plus-27.76 over their last five compared to Hawthorn's minus-8.99. None of that showed up in the only column that counts.

Hawthorn won the game in the areas that don't always show up in a rating system. They out-hit-out Carlton 40 to 26, which is a big number for a side rated the weaker ruck outfit coming in. They racked up 386 disposals to 330 and did it efficiently, hitting targets at 77.5% against Carlton's 70.8%. Carlton actually won the clearance count comfortably, 39 to 27, and edged the contested possession count too, 129 to 121. Winning the coalface battle and still losing by 24 tells its own story about what happened once the ball hit space.

That's where Hawthorn made it count. 116 marks to 95, and 16 marks inside 50 against Carlton's 12, meaning Hawthorn were finding targets in the right areas far more often than they were fumbling opportunities away. Add 69 intercepts to Carlton's 60 and you've got a side that took the ball off Carlton clean, then used it better once they had it. Inside 50 count was almost dead even, 45 for Carlton to 44 for Hawthorn, so this wasn't a case of Hawthorn camping in the forward line. It was what they did with the ball once they got it in there.

For Carlton, the frustrating part will be the shape of it. They matched Hawthorn at the coalface all day and still trailed by 29 goals worth of margin when it mattered. The form line coming in said they should have been the better side. The scoreboard said otherwise from the opening term onward, and no amount of clearance or contested ball work in the second half was going to fix a 45-point deficit built in the first two quarters.

Alphr's model called the winner, backing Hawthorn at 94% and landing that side of the ledger with no trouble. The margin was the miss. Predicted at 51.5, the actual gap was 24, and the combined score of 146 came in well under the projected 186. Wins and misses, all of it. Hawthorn covered the 25.5-point line regardless, and on this occasion the early scoreboard pressure told you everything the ratings sheet couldn't.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 37 | 14 | 25 | 9 | 85 |
| Carlton | 8 | 13 | 25 | 15 | 61 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| **386** | Disposals | 330 |
| 121 | Contested poss. | **129** |
| 27 | Clearances | **39** |
| 44 | Inside 50s | **45** |
| **116** | Marks | 95 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| **67** | Tackles | 60 |
| **40** | Hit-outs | 26 |
| **69** | Intercepts | 60 |
| **77.5%** | Disposal eff. | 70.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 51.5 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 146 points came in 40 points lower than the predicted 186. The model went 2/3 on this match. Hawthorn covered the 25.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.22 (edge +11.9%) — model probability 93.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -25.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 161.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 52 · Predicted total: 186

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 166 · 127 | 117 · 137 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 85/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.3/g | 16.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.8/g | 7.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.2% | 65.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 35 · 47 | 49 · 53 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 139/g | 165/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.7/g | 24.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.9/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 68.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 32 · 17 | 32 · 26 |
| Goal Assists | 1.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.8/g | 13.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.1% | 74.8% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.6/g (lg 0.51) +18% · Forwards 4.53/g (lg 4.42) +2% · Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.27) -1%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.39/g (lg 1.27) +9% · Midfielders 2.36/g (lg 2.4) -2% · Key Forwards 3.44/g (lg 3.59) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 42 in 15g | 25/10g (3·3·0·2·1·2·7·3·1·3) | 31/13g | 217/115g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 86' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 25 in 17g | 16/10g (3·2·3·0·1·0·3·2·1·1) | 2/2g | 26/15g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 20 in 17g | 14/10g (1·2·1·3·2·0·2·1·1·1) | 5/5g | 60/44g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 74% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 16 in 18g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·2) | 4/5g | 47/48g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 15 in 16g | 10/10g (0·0·3·0·1·2·2·1·1·0) | 2/4g | 25/34g | 66% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 18g | 4/10g (0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 12/73g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 8 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 11/37g | 44% | — | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 31/75g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 6 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/21g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | 5 in 3g | 19/10g (2·0·3·3·2·3·1·0·3·2) | 3/1g | 12/6g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' 64' |
| – | Will Day | MID | 5 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·3·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 4/26g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 9/48g | 18% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3) | 1/10g | 14/62g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/22g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/45g | 12% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 21/55g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/25g | 10% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 10/31g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/43g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/20g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 0 in 1g | 17/10g (3·4·2·2·1·1·1·1·2·0) | 5/4g | 52/27g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 30 in 17g | 15/10g (3·3·3·2·1·0·0·0·0·3) | 9/6g | 113/56g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' 65' |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 18 in 14g | 15/10g (0·4·1·2·2·1·1·3·1·0) | 3/8g | 16/35g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.58 AI 62% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 13 in 18g | 7/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 15/24g | 52% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 12 in 11g | 8/10g (2·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 10/21g | 58% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 12 in 18g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/11g | 39/87g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 9 in 7g | 14/10g (1·1·3·1·0·3·0·3·2·0) | 9/7g | 96/46g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 85' |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 9 in 16g | 8/10g (2·0·2·0·3·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 17/35g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Will White | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·3·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 50% | — | 🏉 59' 72' |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 6 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/12g | 14/47g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Moir | FWD | 5 in 4g | 7/6g (1·1·0·1·0·4) | 0/0g | 5/3g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 16/34g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 12/36g | 28% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/13g | 16/40g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/23g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 10/67g | 36% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/4g | 5/31g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 3/63g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/15g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Harry O'Farrell | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 7/74g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 2/31g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 22.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 8 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | $1.95 | 47% | 17 ✓ |
| Will Day ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 15 ✓ |
| James Worpel | 20.5 | $1.94 | 46% | 17 ✓ |
| Jarman Impey | 20.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 25 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 19.5 | $1.90 | 53% | 27 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 19.5 | $1.95 | 53% | 25 ✗ |
| Josh Ward | 19.5 | $1.89 | 39% | 22 ✗ |
| Jack Ginnivan | 18.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 18 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 18.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 22 ✗ |
| Conor Nash | 17.5 | $1.91 | 56% | 21 ✗ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 18 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 24.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 25 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra | 23.5 | $2.00 | 60% | 19 ✓ |
| Sam Docherty | 21.5 | $1.94 | 53% | 16 ✓ |
| Oliver Hollands | 18.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 20 ✗ |
| Adam Saad | 18.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Blake Acres | 17.5 | $1.89 | 50% | 21 ✗ |
| Zac Williams | 16.5 | $1.78 | 64% | 18 ✗ |
| Nick Haynes | 15.5 | $1.91 | 44% | 19 ✗ |
| Charlie Curnow | 12.5 | $1.84 | 54% | 10 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)