AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 51.5 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 146 points came in 40 points lower than the predicted 186. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
94%
Carlton
6%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 94%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Carlton. Carlton are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Hawthorn counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Carlton carry a 62-point ELO rating advantage (1592 vs 1530). The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 51.5 points with a combined total of 186.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.9%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -25.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.9%
Total Points
Over 161.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | W W L L L | 103.2 |
Carlton | W W L L L | 103.9 |
Avg Conceded
93.1
Hawthorn
72.7
Carlton
Avg Margin
-9.0
Hawthorn
27.8
Carlton
Disposals
377.7
Hawthorn
337.0
Carlton
Inside 50s
52.9
Hawthorn
53.6
Carlton
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1592 vs 1530), but the market favours Hawthorn (@1.22).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
94%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 52 points
Predicted total: 186 · Line: +51.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.10
Team Effectiveness
+0.18
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.