# Gold Coast SUNS v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 20 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 130 – 64 Brisbane Lions

_Gold Coast SUNS put Brisbane Lions to the sword._

Half time: 63 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 86% / Brisbane Lions 14% · People First Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Brayden Fiorini (11'), Connor Budarick (21'), Nick Holman (23'), Jy Farrar (27' ×2), Ben King (31' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Bailey Humphrey (44' ×3), Noah Anderson (59'), Ben Long (63' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ben Ainsworth (70' ×3), Ethan Read (90' Tipped ⚡) · Brisbane Lions: Callum Ah Chee (5' 1st Tipped ⚡), Lachie Neale (19'), Hugh McCluggage (39'), Eric Hipwood (46'), Zac Bailey (81' Tipped ⚡), Cam Rayner (79' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Sam Marshall (83')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 86% | Won |
| Brisbane Lions | 14% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 24.1 predicted → 66 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 20 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm · Last updated: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 130–64 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 20 at People First Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at People First Stadium had Gold Coast SUNS up 63-30 on Brisbane Lions, already a big lead and already a lot of points on the board. The question was whether the Lions could find something in the third quarter to make a fight of it. They didn't. By three-quarter time it was 96-38, and the last quarter was just the SUNS adding to a total that had already made its point.

Final score: Gold Coast SUNS 130, Brisbane Lions 64. A 66-point win, and the shape of it barely changed from the first bounce to the last. Whatever was working for Gold Coast in the opening quarter was still working in the fourth.

The clearance count tells you where it started. Gold Coast won that battle 52-40, which is a serious edge given the pre-match ratings actually had Brisbane's midfield rated higher, 967 to 944. On paper the Lions were meant to win the ball. On the day they didn't, and everything downstream of that suffered for it.

Disposal numbers back it up. Gold Coast finished with 436 disposals to 364, and used it far better too, hitting targets at 74.8% against Brisbane's 62.5%. That's not a small gap. Add 64 inside 50s to 53, and 11 marks inside 50 to Brisbane's 6, and you've got a side that kept winning the ball back and kept doing something clean with it once they got it forward.

Where Gold Coast really had the Lions covered was the areas the ratings flagged before a ball was kicked. Ruck was rated 1044 to 942 in Gold Coast's favour, and defence 1026 to 963. Both of those show up in the final numbers: Brisbane's forward entries didn't convert, and the hit-out count, 52 to 51, was close enough that it's the surrounding structure, not just the ruck contest, doing the damage.

Brisbane's form coming in had them conceding an average of 92.6 points a game, well above Gold Coast's 66.4 conceded, and this one landed right in that pattern, just worse. Their intercept count was actually level, 76 apiece, so it's not that Brisbane couldn't win the ball back. It's what happened after that kept going wrong, with the disposal efficiency gap doing a lot of the damage.

Alphr's model had Gold Coast winning at 86% probability, and that part landed easily enough. The margin was the miss. Pre-match had it at 24.1 points on a combined total of 164. The actual margin was 66, and the total blew out to 194, 30 points higher than tipped. Picking the winner is one thing. Picking a result this lopsided is another exercise entirely, and the model wasn't built for a night when a top-four defence and ruck combination just kept feeding a clean, accurate forward line.

Three from three on the picks that mattered, win, and combined total direction. The margin number is the one going in the miss column, and it's not a small miss. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one's a reminder that a good process still gets blown out by a genuinely one-sided performance.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 130 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15 | 15 | 8 | 26 | 64 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| **436** | Disposals | 364 |
| **161** | Contested poss. | 149 |
| **52** | Clearances | 40 |
| **64** | Inside 50s | 53 |
| **75** | Marks | 63 |
| **11** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| **77** | Tackles | 73 |
| **52** | Hit-outs | 51 |
| 76 | Intercepts | 76 |
| **74.8%** | Disposal eff. | 62.5% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 86% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 24.1 but the actual margin was 66 points. The game's 194 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 164. Gold Coast SUNS led 63–30 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 66. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $2.55 (edge +46.4%) — model probability 85.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +46.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 154.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 24 · Predicted total: 164

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Brisbane Lions | 95 – 53 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2026 | R13 | Gold Coast SUNS | 75 – 106 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | QE | Brisbane Lions | 100 – 47 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2025 | R8 | Brisbane Lions | 66 – 49 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R20 | Gold Coast SUNS | 65 – 93 | Brisbane Lions |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 170 · 130 | 161 · 140 |
| Goal Assists | 4.8/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 103/g | 86/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.1/g | 18.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.7/g | 9.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.8% | 66.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 36 · 49 | 55 · 43 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 122/g | 160/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.8/g | 25.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71% | 69% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 16 | 19 · 21 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.8/g | 12.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.3% | 80.5% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.39/g (lg 4.41) +0% · Key Forwards 3.35/g (lg 3.6) -7% · Midfielders 2.07/g (lg 2.39) -13%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.48/g (lg 1.27) +17% · Forwards 4.48/g (lg 4.41) +2% · Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.39) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at People First Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 45 in 17g | 21/10g (3·2·2·1·1·2·3·4·2·1) | 20/9g | 96/44g | 96% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' 94' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 28 in 16g | 14/10g (1·4·3·1·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 4/7g | 16/21g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' 72' 79' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 15 in 17g | 9/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·2·2·1·0) | 1/4g | 16/21g | 48% | — | 🏉 44' 82' 77' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 13 in 16g | 11/10g (1·2·2·0·0·2·2·1·0·1) | 13/15g | 66/60g | 64% | — | 🏉 70' 74' 92' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 12 in 13g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·3·1·1) | 1/2g | 5/5g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.64 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 90' |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 11 in 16g | 7/10g (2·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 14/35g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 7 in 17g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·2·1·0) | 1/10g | 25/48g | 40% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/8g | 18/38g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 5 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 4/13g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 34/52g | 36% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 14/44g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 16/44g | 26% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/23g | 8% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 11/69g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/14g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Leonardo Lombard | FWD | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/20g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Alex Davies | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 4/9g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jy Farrar | FWD | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/11g | 9% | — | 🏉 27' 58' |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/51g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 7/50g | 4% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 34 in 17g | 21/10g (0·3·2·2·0·5·5·1·2·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 84% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 26 in 17g | 11/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·1·0·5·1) | 14/11g | 14/10g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 81' |
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 23 in 18g | 7/10g (3·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 21/15g | 15/12g | 64% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 21 in 16g | 14/10g (1·0·3·1·2·0·0·3·3·1) | 43/18g | 26/14g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 77% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 20 in 17g | 12/10g (3·1·1·4·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/9g | 18/30g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 20 in 18g | 15/10g (3·0·2·1·2·1·3·0·2·1) | 11/12g | 9/8g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' 89' 98' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 10 in 18g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 10 in 18g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·3) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 9 in 18g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 8/15g | 6/12g | 48% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 7 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 6/13g | 1/9g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 6 in 9g | 8/10g (2·0·1·0·4·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/10g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 6 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 10/17g | 9/13g | 26% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 8/11g | 4/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/11g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 21/25g | 13/18g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/9g | 2/8g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/11g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 4/13g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 2/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Marshall | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 83' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 29.5 | $1.83 | 57% | 33 ✗ |
| John Noble | 23.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 31 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.85 | 80% | 18 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell | 23.5 | $1.85 | 53% | 37 ✗ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 20.5 | $1.88 | 50% | 32 ✗ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 18.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 32 ✗ |
| Wil Powell | 15.5 | $1.83 | 54% | 26 ✗ |
| Bailey Humphrey | 15.5 | $1.81 | 62% | 19 ✗ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | 27.5 | $1.92 | 61% | 25 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.96 | 64% | 28 ✗ |
| Lachie Neale | 26.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 36 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko | 25.5 | $1.93 | 50% | 17 ✓ |
| Josh Dunkley | 24.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 22 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher | 20.5 | $1.92 | 56% | 20 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 18.5 | $1.91 | 45% | 20 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 18.5 | $1.80 | 50% | 15 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey | 16.5 | $1.89 | 45% | 26 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)