# Richmond v North Melbourne — AFL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 74 – 78 North Melbourne

_North Melbourne hold off a fast-finishing Richmond._

Half time: 38 – 43 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 79% / North Melbourne 21% · MCG · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Tom Sims (11' Tipped ⚡), Seth Campbell (27' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Hugo Ralphsmith (40'), Sam Lalor (52'), Kamdyn McIntosh (73'), Tom Lynch (97' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (30m 54s)Kamdyn McIntosh (73') · North Melbourne: Luke Davies-Uniacke (9' 1st), Jack Darling (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Cameron Zurhaar (22' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Finnbar Maley (23' Tipped ⚡), Colby McKercher (31'), Nick Larkey (83' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jacob Konstanty (87')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 79% | Lost |
| North Melbourne | 21% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Richmond 74–78 North Melbourne in AFL Round 10 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

North Melbourne led by 23 points at the first change, 36 to 13, and everything that followed was Richmond trying to claw back from a hole of its own making. It nearly worked. Final score: North Melbourne 78, Richmond 74.

That opening term set the shape of the whole contest. North Melbourne won the clearance count 54 to 33 for the match, and it showed up early: first use of the ball, first crack at goal, a quarter-time margin that had the look of a laydown. Richmond's midfield rating of 988 going in was well clear of North Melbourne's 888, but ratings don't clear the ball. On the day it wasn't close.

Richmond responded. From quarter time to half time, the margin was cut back to five points at the main break, 43 to 38. That's the version of Richmond the pre-match numbers pointed to, the one with the stronger forward line rating (1028 to 971) and the better defensive rating (999 to 951). Disposal efficiency told the same story all day: Richmond hit targets at 72.9%, North Melbourne at 69.4%. Richmond also finished with more disposals overall, 334 to 319, and more marks, 72 to 64.

North Melbourne held its five-point buffer through the third quarter, taking a 65 to 60 lead into the final change. Richmond's intercept work was the standout number in that stretch and across the match: 63 to 47, exactly what a side with a stronger defensive rating should produce against a team that kept feeding it the ball through stoppages. But it wasn't enough to close the gap. North Melbourne got home 78 to 74, a four-point margin that matched the shape of the contest from the first bounce.

North Melbourne's path to victory sat in the contested stuff. Contested possessions, 142 to 134. Clearances, the biggest gap of the day, 54 to 33. Marks inside 50, 11 to 9. Those are the fingerprints of a team happy to grind rather than dazzle, and it lines up with the form both sides brought into the match. North Melbourne's last-five win rate sat at 3.26 against Richmond's 2.61, even with a smaller average winning margin, 8.03 points to Richmond's 16.03. This was a squeeze-it-out side doing exactly what it's been doing all season.

Richmond will look at the efficiency numbers and wonder how it lost. Better disposal use, more intercepts, a stronger defensive rating on paper, all of it still wasn't enough to cancel out getting beaten at the source. Hit-outs were close, 54 to 53 in North Melbourne's favour, tackles were dead level at 92 apiece, but the clearance count did the damage that mattered.

Alphr's model had Richmond as 79% favourites, predicting a 3-point win and a combined score of 161. The final total of 152 came in under the posted line of 171.5, so that call landed. The margin call was close enough to respectable, tipping Richmond by 3 against an actual 4-point loss, but tipping the wrong team is still tipping the wrong team. The model went 1 from 3 on this one, and North Melbourne's grind through the middle of the ground was the reason why.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 13 | 25 | 22 | 14 | 74 |
| North Melbourne | 36 | 7 | 22 | 13 | 78 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **334** | Disposals | 319 |
| 134 | Contested poss. | **142** |
| 33 | Clearances | **54** |
| **49** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **72** | Marks | 64 |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **11** |
| 92 | Tackles | 92 |
| 53 | Hit-outs | **54** |
| **63** | Intercepts | 47 |
| **72.9%** | Disposal eff. | 69.4% |

**Model Report Card**

North Melbourne defied the model's 79% prediction for Richmond, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.0 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 171.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Richmond to win @ $2.50 (edge +38.6%) — model probability 78.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +38.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 3 · Predicted total: 161

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 59 · 85 | 67 · 94 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 77/g | 84/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.9/g | 12.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.3/g | 6.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.7% | 67.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 33 | 20 · 29 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 123/g | 141/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.3/g | 20.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70% | 75.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 14 | 22 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposals | 137/g | 138/g |
| Inside 50s | 11/g | 13.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80% | 79.2% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.69/g (lg 0.5) +38% · Defenders 1.73/g (lg 1.31) +32% · Forwards 5.85/g (lg 4.45) +31%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.64/g (lg 3.59) +29% · Midfielders 2.73/g (lg 2.39) +14% · Rucks 0.56/g (lg 0.5) +12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 14 in 9g | 14/10g (0·2·2·3·2·0·2·0·1·2) | 1/1g | 10/17g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' 56' 90' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 11 in 8g | 14/10g (3·0·1·1·1·1·2·3·0·2) | 19/11g | 147/64g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 97' 87' |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 7 in 8g | 7/8g (2·1·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/5g | 63% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 5 in 6g | 9/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·1·2) | 1/2g | 23/35g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 7/8g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·1) | 2/6g | 26/42g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/6g | 26/85g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 6/15g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/42g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 30/107g | 30% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 8/29g | 26% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/18g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 7/32g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Thomson Dow | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/22g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sims | KF | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.65 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/32g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Smith | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Kane McAuliffe | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/85g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 16/133g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 24/51g | 20% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 21 in 9g | 21/10g (0·5·3·4·2·2·1·1·2·1) | 13/5g | 16/6g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 83' 75' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 15 in 9g | 16/10g (1·1·4·1·1·1·1·2·2·2) | 11/4g | 12/5g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 68' 92' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 9 in 9g | 11/10g (2·1·2·1·0·2·0·1·0·2) | 30/15g | 55/27g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 78' |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 7 in 9g | 10/10g (3·1·1·1·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 3/7g | 4/9g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 7 in 9g | 10/10g (3·0·1·0·2·0·2·1·0·1) | 10/15g | 24/37g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 6 in 9g | 6/9g (0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 56% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 4 in 5g | 8/10g (1·1·2·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 54% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/7g | 34% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/5g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Scott | MID | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 2/7g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/6g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Finnbar Maley | KF | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 1 in 9g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/3g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 3/20g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/16g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 27.5 | $1.81 | 62% | 30 ✗ |
| Jacob Hopper | 26.5 | $1.85 | 62% | 27 ✗ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.85 | 83% | 25 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 20.5 | $1.78 | 65% | 14 ✓ |
| Thomson Dow | 19.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 17 ✓ |
| Luke Trainor ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.91 | 70% | 12 ✓ |
| Kamdyn McIntosh | 16.5 | $1.78 | 64% | 13 ✓ |
| Jack Ross | 16.5 | $1.99 | 47% | 21 ✗ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 30.5 | $1.83 | 47% | 20 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 26.5 | $1.88 | 52% | 27 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 24.5 | $1.80 | 38% | 25 ✗ |
| Luke Parker | 22.5 | $1.85 | 41% | 15 ✓ |
| George Wardlaw | 21.5 | $1.80 | 49% | 14 ✓ |
| Jy Simpkin | 21.5 | $1.78 | 31% | 20 ✓ |
| Tom Powell | 19.5 | $1.94 | 42% | 24 ✗ |
| Tristan Xerri | 19.5 | $1.85 | 56% | 19 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)