AI Game Review
Fremantle defied the model's 72% prediction for GWS GIANTS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.4 but the actual margin was 34 points. Fremantle led 29–40 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
72%
Fremantle
28%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Fremantle. Fremantle are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but GWS GIANTS counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Fremantle carry a 25-point ELO rating advantage (1513 vs 1487). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 15.4 points with a combined total of 165.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.33
Lost ✗
Edge
-3.5%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS -19.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-3.5%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | W W W W L | 89.1 |
Fremantle | W W W L L | 75.2 |
Avg Conceded
86.2
GWS GIANTS
74.0
Fremantle
Avg Margin
-2.9
GWS GIANTS
10.6
Fremantle
Disposals
337.4
GWS GIANTS
360.1
Fremantle
Inside 50s
52.3
GWS GIANTS
53.0
Fremantle
ELO–Market Disagreement
Fremantle hold the ELO advantage (1513 vs 1487), but the market favours GWS GIANTS (@1.33).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
72%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 15 points
Predicted total: 165 · Line: +15.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.21
Team Effectiveness
+0.02
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.