AFL | Round 10

alphr.com.au

GWS
GWS GIANTS
VS
FRE
Fremantle
ENGIE STADIUM • TUESDAY 24 FEB, 10:45 PM

AI Game Review

Fremantle defied the model's 72% prediction for GWS GIANTS — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 15.4 but the actual margin was 34 points. Fremantle led 29–40 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability

AI Win Probability

72%GWS GIANTSFavourite

GWS GIANTS

72%

Fremantle

28%

✨

AI Match Overview

GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Fremantle. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. GWS GIANTS carry a 144-point ELO rating advantage (1570 vs 1425). The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 15.4 points with a combined total of 165.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

GWS GIANTS to Win @1.33

Lost ✗

Edge

-3.5%

✗

Line / Spread

GWS GIANTS -19.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

-3.5%

✗

Total Points

Under 172.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.6%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
GWS GIANTS
WWLLL
80.6
Fremantle
WWLLL
81.2

Avg Conceded

87.0

GWS GIANTS

82.4

Fremantle

Avg Margin

-6.4

GWS GIANTS

-1.2

Fremantle

Disposals

377.8

GWS GIANTS

337.8

Fremantle

Inside 50s

50.0

GWS GIANTS

50.0

Fremantle

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GWS
1570Overall1425
FRE
ELO difference: +144 in favour of GWS GIANTS

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1172Midfield1164
Best: 1207EvenBest: 1197
1092Forwards1045
Best: 1425GWS +47Best: 1233
1267Defence1259
Best: 1442EvenBest: 1485
1081Ruck1274
Best: 1081FRE +193Best: 1274

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GWS
Stat
FRE
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
80.6pts
Avg Score
81.2pts
87.0pts
Avg Conceded
82.4pts
-6.4pts
Avg Margin
-1.2pts
377.8
Disposals
337.8
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
56.2
Tackles
59.2
32.6
Clearances
35.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
GIANTS
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
GIANTS
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
—
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
GIANTS
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
GIANTS
6
Scoring Form8.0%
—
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
GIANTS

Model Confidence

72%

GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 15 points

Predicted total: 165 · Line: +15.4

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

-0.21

Team Effectiveness

+0.02

8
Elite
3
Hard Worker
6
Efficient
5
Poor Game
Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

1/3 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props