# GWS GIANTS v Fremantle — AFL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 61 – 95 Fremantle

_Fremantle see off GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 29 – 40 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 72% / Fremantle 28% · ENGIE Stadium · Sat, 17 May, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Jesse Hogan (9' Tipped ⚡), Callum Brown (42' ×2), Aaron Cadman (56' Tipped ⚡), Darcy Jones (75'), Tom Green (85'), Toby Greene (88' Tipped ⚡) · Fremantle: Shai Bolton (8' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Michael Frederick (16' ×3), Jye Amiss (39' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Murphy Reid (73'), Josh Treacy (61' Tipped ⚡), Patrick Voss (64' Tipped ⚡), Bailey Banfield (73'), Cooper Simpson (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 72% | Lost |
| Fremantle | 28% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 15.4 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm · Last updated: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

GWS GIANTS 61–95 Fremantle in AFL Round 10 at ENGIE Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fremantle's night turned in the third quarter, and turned hard. GWS Giants had trailed by six at quarter time and by eleven at the main break, competitive enough on the board even if nothing else. Then Fremantle put on 23 points to five in the third term alone, stretching a handy lead into a rout, and from 63-34 at the last change the result was academic.

Final score: GWS Giants 61, Fremantle 95. A 34-point beating, and one that was built almost entirely in that third-quarter burst.

The clearance count tells you where the game was actually decided. Fremantle won them 43 to 32, and turned that grunt work into 56 inside 50s against 45. GWS had more marks overall, 87 to 72, and actually shaded marks inside 50, 12 to 11, which suggests the visitors were direct with what they created rather than pretty. Disposal efficiency was near identical, 72.4 to 72.0, so this wasn't a case of one side fumbling the ball around. Fremantle just got it forward more often and made more of the trips count.

Contested possessions back it up further: 131 to 112 in Fremantle's favour. That's a side winning the fight for the ball at source, which lines up with the pre-match ratings that had Fremantle's midfield at 1037 against GWS's 952, and the ruck at 1040 to 950 even though the hit-out count finished dead level at 37 apiece. Hit-outs without clearances are just a stat for the sheet. Fremantle turned theirs into something.

GWS's one clear positive was pressure. They laid 62 tackles to Fremantle's 49, and led intercepts 55 to 56 barely, in truth a coin flip. But tackles don't matter much if you're not winning the ball back cleanly enough to use it, and the inside 50 differential shows that. GWS were run off their feet in the corridor for a stretch and never really recovered the territory battle.

Form lines suggest this result had more legs behind it than the raw ladder position might imply. Fremantle came in averaging 10.56 points better than opponents across their last five, against a GWS side sitting at minus 2.95. Fremantle were also the heavier disposal side over that stretch, 360.1 to 337.4, so the extra ball use tonight wasn't a one-off.

None of which the model saw coming. It had GWS as 72% favourites, with a rating edge of 1487 to 1513 and an expected margin of 15.4 points the other way. Instead Fremantle won by 34, a 49-point swing on the predicted number. The model landed one call out of three on this one: it got the under right, tipping a combined total under 172.5 with the actual sitting at 156, but missed both the winner and the margin badly.

Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 16 | 13 | 5 | 27 | 61 |
| Fremantle | 22 | 18 | 23 | 32 | 95 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| 322 | Disposals | **336** |
| 112 | Contested poss. | **131** |
| 32 | Clearances | **43** |
| 45 | Inside 50s | **56** |
| **87** | Marks | 72 |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **62** | Tackles | 49 |
| 37 | Hit-outs | 37 |
| 55 | Intercepts | **56** |
| 72.0% | Disposal eff. | **72.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Fremantle defied the model's 72% prediction for GWS GIANTS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.4 but the actual margin was 34 points. Fremantle led 29–40 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.33 (edge -3.5%) — model probability 71.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -19.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 15 · Predicted total: 165

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 86 · 55 | 73 · 77 |
| Goal Assists | 4.4/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 95/g | 78/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.1/g | 13.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.2/g | 7.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.1% | 67.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 30 | 25 · 30 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 148/g | 151/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.7/g | 28.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.9/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.7% | 70.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 11 | 10 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 137/g | 117/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.7/g | 10.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.9% | 82.1% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.53/g (lg 2.38) +6% · Key Forwards 3.56/g (lg 3.59) -1% · Forwards 4.16/g (lg 4.45) -7%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.5) +4% · Defenders 1.27/g (lg 1.31) -3% · Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.45) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at ENGIE Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 25 in 6g | 41/10g (6·2·3·5·4·9·2·2·1·7) | 20/7g | 80/22g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 17 in 9g | 20/10g (3·1·3·2·3·5·0·2·0·1) | 15/11g | 136/80g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 88' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 10 in 9g | 11/10g (1·0·2·1·1·2·0·1·2·1) | 1/2g | 11/13g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 56' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 7 in 8g | 8/10g (1·0·2·0·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 7/7g | 66% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 6 in 5g | 11/10g (2·1·1·1·0·1·1·0·3·1) | 10/4g | 26/21g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·1·1) | 3/4g | 17/31g | 46% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Callan Ward | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/13g | 42/84g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0) | 2/4g | 9/17g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/7g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/19g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 21/12g | 42% | — | 🏉 42' 72' |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/17g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/36g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Cody Angove | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/29g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 58/56g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/23g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/19g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/29g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 30/84g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/7g | 31% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 22 in 9g | 25/10g (3·1·4·3·3·6·1·2·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 13 in 9g | 14/10g (1·0·1·4·1·0·3·2·2·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' 67' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 12 in 9g | 13/10g (1·2·0·1·3·3·0·2·0·1) | 6/4g | 3/1g | 74% | — | 🏉 16' 19' 64' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 9 in 9g | 9/9g (4·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 9 in 8g | 13/10g (3·1·0·0·2·2·3·1·0·1) | 10/9g | 3/5g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 53' 67' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 6 in 7g | 6/7g (2·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 71% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 5 in 5g | 11/10g (1·1·0·2·2·1·1·0·1·2) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.38 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/8g | 0/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 50% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 3 in 6g | 8/10g (2·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 3/4g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/6g | 1/2g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 3/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Simpson | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green | 30.5 | $1.96 | 56% | 25 ✓ |
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.93 | 68% | 25 ✓ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.75 | 78% | 29 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan | 25.5 | $1.85 | 61% | 24 ✓ |
| Connor Idun ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 18 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg | 18.5 | $1.85 | 51% | 13 ✓ |
| Callan Ward | 18.5 | $1.96 | 52% | 11 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 16.5 | $1.76 | 48% | 16 ✓ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 27.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 30 ✗ |
| Caleb Serong | 26.5 | $1.91 | 58% | 36 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark | 22.5 | $1.89 | 58% | 21 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 22.5 | $1.77 | 63% | 18 ✓ |
| Matthew Johnson | 19.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 14 ✓ |
| Luke Jackson ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.82 | 82% | 21 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 17.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 24 ✗ |
| Corey Wagner | 15.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r10-gws-giants-v-fremantle
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)