AFL | Round 10

alphr.com.au

Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
WBDWBD
ESSESS
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
SYDSYD
CARCAR
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
COLCOL
ADEADE
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
RICRIC
NORNOR
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
GCSGCS
HAWHAW
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
PORPOR
GEEGEE
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
BRIBRI
MELMEL
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
GWSGWS
FREFRE
Tue 24 Feb10:45pm
WCEWCE
STKSTK
BRI
Brisbane Lions
VS
MEL
Melbourne
GABBA • TUESDAY 24 FEB, 10:45 PM

Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability

AI Win Probability

95%Brisbane LionsFavourite

Brisbane Lions

95%

Melbourne

5%

✨

AI Match Overview

Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 95%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Recent Win Rate, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. Melbourne carry a 38-point ELO rating advantage (1543 vs 1505). The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 45.7 points with a combined total of 176.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Brisbane Lions to Win @1.14

Lost ✗

Edge

+7.0%

✗

Line / Spread

Brisbane Lions -33.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+7.0%

✗

Total Points

Over 172.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.6%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Brisbane Lions
W
W
L
L
L
85.0
Melbourne
W
W
L
L
L
90.3

Avg Conceded

91.0

Brisbane Lions

84.4

Melbourne

Avg Margin

14.5

Brisbane Lions

-3.5

Melbourne

Disposals

368.5

Brisbane Lions

364.2

Melbourne

Inside 50s

54.8

Brisbane Lions

42.5

Melbourne

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Melbourne hold the ELO advantage (1543 vs 1505), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.14).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

BRI
1505Overall1543
MEL
ELO difference: -38 in favour of Melbourne

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

993Midfield1022
MEL +29
1036Forwards988
BRI +48
1007Defence1005
Even
975Ruck985
MEL +10

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

BRI
Stat
MEL
1.7
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
85.0pts
Avg Score
90.3pts
91.0pts
Avg Conceded
84.4pts
14.5pts
Avg Margin
-3.5pts
368.5
Disposals
364.2
54.8
Inside 50s
42.5

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Melbourne
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Melbourne
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Lions
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Lions
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Lions
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
Lions
7
H2H History6.0%
—

Model Confidence

95%

Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 46 points

Predicted total: 176 · Line: +45.7

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

-0.28

Team Effectiveness

+0.03

2
Elite
2
Hard Worker
10
Efficient
8
Poor Game
Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

1/3 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props