# West Coast Eagles v St Kilda — AFL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 108 – 80 St Kilda

_West Coast Eagles soar past St Kilda._

Half time: 47 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 46% / St Kilda 54% · Optus Stadium · Sun, 18 May, 04:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Matt Flynn (8' 1st), Jamie Cripps (12' Tipped ⚡), Jayden Hunt (23'), Harley Reid (36' ×2), Oscar Allen (46' ×2), Brady Hough (85'), Jack Graham (74'), Bailey Williams (81'), Liam Ryan (82' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Elijah Hewett (89'), Jake Waterman (92' Tipped ⚡) · St Kilda: Mason Wood (10' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Wilson (38' ×2), Jack Higgins (59' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Cooper Sharman (69' Tipped ⚡), Max Hall (85' Tipped ⚡), Rowan Marshall (87')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 54% | Lost |
| West Coast Eagles | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.4 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs St Kilda Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 10, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

West Coast Eagles 108–80 St Kilda in AFL Round 10 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The margin didn't really open in a rush, it built quarter by quarter until St Kilda finally found a reply too late to matter. West Coast Eagles led by 12 at the first change, stretched it to 19 by half time, then pushed it out to 28 by the last break. That's the stretch that decided the afternoon: 70-42 with a quarter to play, and from there it was about whether St Kilda could find something West Coast Eagles couldn't answer.

They couldn't, not in time. The final term was actually a shootout, 38 points apiece, but by then the margin was already baked in. West Coast Eagles won 108-80 at Optus Stadium, and the last quarter shows St Kilda had another gear, just not one that arrived early enough to change anything.

Look at the stat sheet and you'd think St Kilda were the better side. They out-disposed West Coast Eagles 376 to 321, won the clearance count 43-36, won contested possession 147-133, and took 91 marks to 73. On paper, that's a midfield and forward line doing their jobs, which lines up with the pre-match ratings that had St Kilda stronger everywhere but the ruck: 996 to 966 in the midfield, a big edge of 1020 to 953 up forward.

None of it translated to the scoreboard early, and that's the story. West Coast Eagles were more efficient with what they had, 74.6% disposal efficiency to St Kilda's 72.1%, and they went inside 50 more often, 59 times to 54, even without matching them for the ball. Marks inside 50 were dead level at 12 apiece, but West Coast Eagles made more of their entries when it counted, particularly through that third-quarter surge.

Recent form suggested this could go either way. West Coast Eagles came in averaging 103.99 points a game across their last five, St Kilda only 83.67, so the scoring gap wasn't invented from nothing. St Kilda had actually been the more consistent winner across that stretch, a positive average margin of 5.41 against West Coast Eagles sitting at negative 3.22, which is presumably why the model liked them.

And the model did like them. Alphr's pre-match read had St Kilda favourites by 6.4 points, ratings of 1506 to 1488. Instead West Coast Eagles won by 28, a swing of well

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 26 | 21 | 23 | 38 | 108 |
| St Kilda | 14 | 14 | 14 | 38 | 80 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| 321 | Disposals | **376** |
| 133 | Contested poss. | **147** |
| 36 | Clearances | **43** |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 54 |
| 73 | Marks | **91** |
| 12 | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| **67** | Tackles | 65 |
| **45** | Hit-outs | 42 |
| **70** | Intercepts | 66 |
| **74.6%** | Disposal eff. | 72.1% |

**Model Report Card**

West Coast Eagles defied the model's 54% prediction for St Kilda, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.4 but the actual margin was 28 points. West Coast Eagles led 47–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 169.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.36 (edge -19.5%) — model probability 54.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge -19.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 6 · Predicted total: 174

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 69 · 98 | 68 · 78 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 68/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.3/g | 12/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.6/g | 6.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.7% | 68.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 13 · 34 | 24 · 35 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 171/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.4/g | 24.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.7% | 69.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 3 · 10 | 20 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 99/g | 125/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.6/g | 13.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.9% | 76.6% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.43/g (lg 2.35) +3% · Key Forwards 3.36/g (lg 3.58) -6% · Forwards 3.98/g (lg 4.48) -11%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.84/g (lg 0.5) +68% · Midfielders 3.45/g (lg 2.35) +47% · Key Forwards 4.78/g (lg 3.58) +34%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 13 in 9g | 15/10g (2·0·1·2·2·1·1·1·2·3) | 19/16g | 93/77g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' |
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 12 in 6g | 21/10g (4·1·2·2·2·0·4·2·3·1) | 3/6g | 91/58g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 92' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 9 in 7g | 10/10g (1·0·0·3·1·2·0·3·0·0) | 8/7g | 67/59g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' 84' |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 2/3g | 8/7g | 76% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·3·0) | 2/1g | 8/13g | 23% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 5 in 9g | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/2g | 8/15g | 39% | — | 🏉 36' 50' |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 4/10g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/11g | 12/29g | 28% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 10/6g | 74/52g | 70% | — | 🏉 46' 76' |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/4g | 10/36g | 20% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/8g | 22% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Tom Gross | FWD | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/33g | 0% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/25g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 0 in 8g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 3/13g | 22% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 3/13g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/74g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/25g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 6/18g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 19/54g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/59g | 2% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 23 in 9g | 25/10g (2·2·4·3·3·2·3·3·1·2) | 6/5g | 8/5g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' 84' 67' 78' 96' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 14 in 8g | 16/10g (2·0·2·4·2·0·3·0·3·0) | 5/3g | 4/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 82% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 13 in 7g | 17/10g (2·2·0·2·1·3·0·1·4·2) | 2/4g | 0/4g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 10 in 7g | 13/10g (0·1·2·2·2·3·1·1·0·1) | 14/7g | 10/7g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 15' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 8 in 9g | 8/9g (2·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.64 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 85' |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 7/13g | 3/7g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Lance Collard | DEF | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·2·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 38' 82' |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 3/2g | 3/2g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/20g | 3/23g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 2 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/7g | 42% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/11g | 0/8g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Angus McLennan | DEF | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/18g | 2/11g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Maric ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 81% | 22 ✓ |
| Liam Baker | 22.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 18 ✓ |
| Jack Graham ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.91 | 65% | 17 ✓ |
| Liam Duggan | 18.5 | $1.85 | 56% | 21 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 17.5 | $1.90 | 48% | 15 ✓ |
| Tim Kelly | 17.5 | $1.82 | 31% | 12 ✓ |
| Brady Hough ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.85 | 76% | 24 ✗ |
| Elijah Hewett | 15.5 | $1.84 | 61% | 13 ✓ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Macrae | 27.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 27 ✓ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | 27.5 | $1.92 | 54% | 27 ✓ |
| Jack Sinclair | 25.5 | $1.88 | 52% | 38 ✗ |
| Jack Steele | 22.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 16 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager | 19.5 | $1.91 | 48% | 19 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill | 19.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 22 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall | 19.5 | $1.79 | 59% | 27 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie | 18.5 | $1.85 | 52% | 24 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)