# AFL Round 10 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 10 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 10 at a glance
- 9 matches · 18W–9L on 27 settled picks (67% strike rate) · best value +38.6% edge

## Round 10 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs v Essendon | Western Bulldogs @ $1.24 | Western Bulldogs 87% | WON |
| Sydney Swans v Carlton | Sydney Swans @ $1.63 | Sydney Swans 67% | WON |
| Collingwood v Adelaide Crows | Collingwood @ $1.50 | Collingwood 58% | WON |
| Richmond v North Melbourne | Richmond @ $2.50 | Richmond 79% | LOST |
| Gold Coast SUNS v Hawthorn | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.60 | Gold Coast SUNS 93% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v Geelong Cats | Geelong Cats @ $1.60 | Geelong Cats 83% | WON |
| Brisbane Lions v Melbourne | Brisbane Lions @ $1.14 | Brisbane Lions 95% | LOST |
| GWS GIANTS v Fremantle | GWS GIANTS @ $1.33 | GWS GIANTS 72% | LOST |
| West Coast Eagles v St Kilda | St Kilda @ $1.36 | St Kilda 54% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 87.2% / Essendon 12.8%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.24 (edge +6.6%) — model probability 87.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -25.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 30 · Predicted total: 193
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r10-western-bulldogs-v-essendon

### Sydney Swans v Carlton
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · SCG · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 67.2% / Carlton 32.8%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.63 (edge +5.8%) — model probability 67.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 162.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 7 · Predicted total: 157
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r10-sydney-swans-v-carlton

### Collingwood v Adelaide Crows
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 58.2% / Adelaide Crows 41.8%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.50 (edge -8.5%) — model probability 58.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 167.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 7 · Predicted total: 153
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r10-collingwood-v-adelaide-crows

### Richmond v North Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 78.6% / North Melbourne 21.4%
- **Head to Head:** Richmond to win @ $2.50 (edge +38.6%) — model probability 78.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +38.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 3 · Predicted total: 161
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r10-richmond-v-north-melbourne

### Gold Coast SUNS v Hawthorn
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · TIO Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 93.2% / Hawthorn 6.8%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.60 (edge +30.7%) — model probability 93.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 182.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 34 · Predicted total: 193
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r10-gold-coast-suns-v-hawthorn

### Port Adelaide v Geelong Cats
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 16.6% / Geelong Cats 83.4%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.60 (edge +20.9%) — model probability 83.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 22 · Predicted total: 163
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r10-port-adelaide-v-geelong-cats

### Brisbane Lions v Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Gabba · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 94.7% / Melbourne 5.3%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.14 (edge +7.0%) — model probability 94.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -33.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 46 · Predicted total: 176
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r10-brisbane-lions-v-melbourne

### GWS GIANTS v Fremantle
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · ENGIE Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 71.7% / Fremantle 28.3%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.33 (edge -3.5%) — model probability 71.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -19.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 15 · Predicted total: 165
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r10-gws-giants-v-fremantle

### West Coast Eagles v St Kilda
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 45.9% / St Kilda 54.1%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.36 (edge -19.5%) — model probability 54.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge -19.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 6 · Predicted total: 174
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r10-west-coast-eagles-v-st-kilda

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/9 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/9.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/11 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/11.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC