# Gold Coast SUNS v Hawthorn — AFL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 104 – 96 Hawthorn

_Gold Coast SUNS outshine Hawthorn in a tight one._

Half time: 58 – 44 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 93% / Hawthorn 7% · TIO Stadium · Thu, 15 May, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Touk Miller (8' ×2), Ben Long (10' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Bailey Humphrey (14'), Ben King (18' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ben Ainsworth (24' ×2), Sam Clohesy (46'), Sam Flanders (48'), Noah Anderson (57'), Final quarter (33m 45s)David Swallow (72'), Malcolm Rosas (86' Tipped ⚡) · Hawthorn: Dylan Moore (4' 1st), Nick Watson (29' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Karl Amon (65'), Jack Ginnivan (67' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mabior Chol (80' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Blake Hardwick (85' ×2), Jai Newcombe (89'), Harry Morrison (95')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 93% | Won |
| Hawthorn | 7% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 34.0 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 104–96 Hawthorn in AFL Round 10 at TIO Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Gold Coast led by twenty at quarter time, led by fourteen at the main break, and then found themselves down by three heading into the final term. That's the version of this game that matters most: an eighteen point swing across the third quarter, Hawthorn turning a 58-44 deficit into a 75-72 lead by using the same purple patch teams live for. Gold Coast had to find another gear to win it back, and they did, outscoring Hawthorn 32-21 in the last to close it out 104-96.

That third-quarter capitulation aside, the shape of this game was set by two departments Gold Coast dominated all night. Hit-outs went 54-37 their way, and that ruck dominance fed a clearance count of 50-35. When you're winning first use of the ball at that rate, you're setting the terms of engagement, and the final scoreline reflects it even with the wobble.

Disposal efficiency told the same story from another angle. Gold Coast hit targets at 76.1% to Hawthorn's 70.6%, and racked up 363 disposals to 342. More the ball, cleaner with it. Hawthorn actually shaded the contested possession count, 148 to 144, and edged intercepts 72-69, which explains how they were still very much in this at the death.

Where Hawthorn found their answer was forward of centre. Despite even inside 50 numbers, 59 apiece, they made better use of theirs, with 10 marks inside 50 to Gold Coast's 7. That's a side converting entries into clean chances more often, and it's exactly the kind of efficiency you'd expect from a forward line rated 1083 against Gold Coast's 959 coming in. It nearly got them there.

Tackles went Gold Coast's way, 68-58, and it's the pressure number that lines up with those first two quarters when they built the buffer Hawthorn then had to chase down. Losing that lead in the third and still winning the match points to a side that could absorb a punch and keep functioning, which matters given the raw form line: Hawthorn arrived with three wins from their last five against roughly one for Gold Coast, and an average winning margin near 29 points to Gold Coast's near-even 1.2.

The ratings had Hawthorn stronger everywhere on paper, forwards, defence and ruck all in their favour, some by triple figures. None of that showed up where it counted. Gold Coast's ruck and clearance work simply overrode the positional gap, and their disposal efficiency did the rest.

Alphr's model called the winner at 93% and got it right, part of a clean sweep on the three picks for this one. The margin was the miss, tipped at 34 points when the actual gap was 8. A third quarter capitulation will do that to a model's number, even when the pick underneath it holds up fine.

Gold Coast win it 104-96 after nearly handing it back in the third. Hawthorn had the forward efficiency and the intercept edge to make it a genuine contest, but the ruck and clearance count did the damage that mattered most.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 32 | 26 | 14 | 32 | 104 |
| Hawthorn | 12 | 32 | 31 | 21 | 96 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| **363** | Disposals | 342 |
| 144 | Contested poss. | **148** |
| **50** | Clearances | 35 |
| 59 | Inside 50s | 59 |
| **72** | Marks | 70 |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **10** |
| **68** | Tackles | 58 |
| **54** | Hit-outs | 37 |
| 69 | Intercepts | **72** |
| **76.1%** | Disposal eff. | 70.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 93% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 34.0 but the actual margin was 8 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.60 (edge +30.7%) — model probability 93.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 182.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 34 · Predicted total: 193

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 95 · 57 | 81 · 57 |
| Goal Assists | 6.4/g | 4.6/g |
| Disposals | 119/g | 89/g |
| Inside 50s | 24/g | 16.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11/g | 10.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.3% | 69.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 24 | 25 · 25 |
| Goal Assists | 2.6/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 106/g | 147/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.6/g | 22.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69% | 73.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 8 | 19 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 136/g |
| Inside 50s | 16/g | 14.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.4% | 80.4% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.53/g (lg 1.31) +17% · Midfielders 2.42/g (lg 2.38) +2% · Key Forwards 3.58/g (lg 3.59) +0%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.57/g (lg 1.31) +20% · Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.5) +4% · Forwards 4.5/g (lg 4.45) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 27 in 8g | 30/10g (2·1·6·4·2·5·1·5·1·3) | 12/5g | 15/6g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 75' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 15 in 7g | 18/10g (0·0·3·4·1·2·3·3·1·1) | 4/7g | 5/5g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 44' 77' 98' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 10 in 7g | 12/10g (0·2·0·1·3·1·1·3·1·0) | 2/1g | 2/2g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 9 in 8g | 9/10g (0·0·2·3·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 2/6g | 42% | — | 🏉 8' 95' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·4·0·0) | 0/2g | 8/5g | 38% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 6 in 7g | 12/10g (2·2·2·1·0·2·1·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 3/4g | 42% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (0·2·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 5/12g | 2/2g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 4/8g | 5/6g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 3 in 7g | 7/10g (2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 6/8g | 8/8g | 64% | — | 🏉 24' 90' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 1/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 5/7g | 32% | — | — |
| – | David Swallow | FWD | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/13g | 5/6g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 8g | 4/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 1/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/7g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 1 in 7g | 6/10g (4·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 6/8g | 34% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Sam Clohesy | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 3/3g | 17% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 0/4g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Malcolm Rosas | FWD | 0 in 1g | 16/10g (1·3·3·2·2·1·2·2·0·0) | 7/5g | 4/5g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 86' |
| – | Ned Moyle | RUC | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/6g | 4% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 17 in 9g | 18/10g (1·1·2·3·0·1·3·3·2·2) | 3/4g | 5/3g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 80' 88' 100' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 14 in 9g | 17/10g (3·0·3·2·1·0·2·1·3·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 73% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' 53' 63' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 9 in 9g | 10/10g (1·2·3·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 6/6g | 1/1g | 74% | — | 🏉 4' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·2·2·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 85' 99' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 7 in 8g | 10/10g (1·2·0·2·0·0·0·2·2·1) | 7/3g | 0/0g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' 93' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 5 in 7g | 10/10g (3·2·0·1·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 44% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | no games | 16/10g (0·2·0·2·0·3·3·2·3·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 75% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Ned Reeves | RUC | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 27.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 35 ✗ |
| Touk Miller | 25.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 22 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 29 ✗ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 36 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders | 21.5 | $1.78 | 64% | 13 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 69% | 21 ✗ |
| Bailey Humphrey ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 87% | 19 ✓ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 17.5 | $1.96 | 40% | 16 ✓ |
| Wil Powell ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 18 ✗ |
| Bodhi Uwland | 15.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 22 ✗ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.82 | 66% | 29 ✗ |
| James Worpel | 23.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 20 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 22.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 30 ✗ |
| James Sicily | 21.5 | $1.91 | 55% | 15 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 12 ✓ |
| Changkuoth Jiath ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.94 | 72% | 12 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 19.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 23 ✗ |
| Josh Battle | 18.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 13 ✓ |
| Cam Mackenzie | 18.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 13 ✓ |
| Dylan Moore | 16.5 | $1.99 | 56% | 17 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)