AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 93% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 34.0 but the actual margin was 8 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
93%
Hawthorn
7%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hawthorn. Hawthorn are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Gold Coast SUNS counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Hawthorn carry a 53-point ELO rating advantage (1546 vs 1493). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 34.0 points with a combined total of 193.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
+30.7%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+30.7%
Total Points
Over 182.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | W L L L L | 80.2 |
Hawthorn | W W W L L | 83.1 |
Avg Conceded
77.0
Gold Coast SUNS
70.5
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
1.2
Gold Coast SUNS
29.1
Hawthorn
Disposals
376.5
Gold Coast SUNS
343.9
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
52.5
Gold Coast SUNS
45.7
Hawthorn
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1546 vs 1493), but the market favours Gold Coast SUNS (@1.60).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 34 points
Predicted total: 193 · Line: +34.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.18
Team Effectiveness
+0.23
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.