AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 83% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 22.1 but the actual margin was 76 points. Geelong Cats led 24–33 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 76. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
17%
Geelong Cats
83%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 83%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Geelong Cats carry a 187-point ELO rating advantage (1648 vs 1461). The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 22.1 points with a combined total of 163.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.9%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats +8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.9%
Total Points
Under 175.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | WWWLL | 85.6 |
Geelong Cats | WWWLL | 94.4 |
Avg Conceded
95.2
Port Adelaide
93.0
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
-9.6
Port Adelaide
1.4
Geelong Cats
Disposals
331.8
Port Adelaide
334.6
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
50.0
Geelong Cats
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
83%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 22 points
Predicted total: 163 · Line: -22.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.26
Team Effectiveness
-0.03
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.