AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 83% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 22.1 but the actual margin was 76 points. Geelong Cats led 24–33 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 76. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
17%
Geelong Cats
83%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 83%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. Port Adelaide are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Geelong Cats counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Port Adelaide carry a 81-point ELO rating advantage (1583 vs 1502). The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 22.1 points with a combined total of 163.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.9%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats +8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.9%
Total Points
Under 175.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | W W L L L | 76.9 |
Geelong Cats | W W L L L | 95.7 |
Avg Conceded
91.2
Port Adelaide
67.9
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
-2.7
Port Adelaide
-4.9
Geelong Cats
Disposals
369.5
Port Adelaide
369.7
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
42.9
Port Adelaide
55.6
Geelong Cats
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1583 vs 1502), but the market favours Geelong Cats (@1.60).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
83%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 22 points
Predicted total: 163 · Line: -22.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.26
Team Effectiveness
-0.03
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.