# Port Adelaide v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 39 – 115 Geelong Cats

_Geelong Cats pounce on Port Adelaide._

Half time: 24 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 17% / Geelong Cats 83% · Adelaide Oval · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Darcy Byrne-Jones (23'), Sam Powell-Pepper (29' ×2), Joe Richards (80'), Mitch Georgiades (88' Tipped ⚡) · Geelong Cats: Jack Bowes (17' 1st), Oliver Dempsey (21' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tom Atkins (33'), Jeremy Cameron (57' ×7 Tipped ⚡), Brad Close (75'), Shaun Mannagh (82' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Henry (90' Tipped ⚡), Shannon Neale (78'), Tyson Stengle (83' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 83% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 17% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 22.1 predicted → 76 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide vs Geelong Cats Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 10, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Port Adelaide 39–115 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 10 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half time at Adelaide Oval had Geelong Cats up 33 to Port Adelaide's 24, nine points the difference, the kind of gap that still lets a home crowd believe. Then the third quarter arrived and the contest fell apart.

Geelong piled on 36 points to Port's 9 in that term alone, turning a workable deficit into a 36-point hole by the three-quarter time siren, 69 to 33. Port never found an answer in the last quarter either, managing just 6 more points while Geelong added 46. Final score: Geelong Cats 115, Port Adelaide 39. A 76-point win, built almost entirely in the second half, with the margin blowing out from 9 at the main break to 76 by the final siren.

The clearance count shows where it started to unravel. Geelong won clearances 43 to 30, and every extra look at a stoppage turned into another forward thrust, 58 inside 50s to Port's 43. Port actually shaded the hit-outs, 37 to 35, which makes the clearance gap more telling, not less. Winning the tap and still losing the clearance count by 13 says Geelong's midfield beat Port to the footy on the ground, ruck advantage or not.

Efficiency did plenty of damage too. Total disposals were close, 365 for Port to 363 for Geelong, but Geelong hit targets at 75.7% against Port's 70.3%. That gap compounds over four quarters of footy. Inside forward 50 it was worse again for Port: Geelong took 16 marks in

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 16 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 39 |
| Geelong Cats | 19 | 14 | 36 | 46 | 115 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **365** | Disposals | 363 |
| 115 | Contested poss. | **125** |
| 30 | Clearances | **43** |
| 43 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| 90 | Marks | **107** |
| 5 | Marks inside 50 | **16** |
| 47 | Tackles | **52** |
| **37** | Hit-outs | 35 |
| 57 | Intercepts | **61** |
| 70.3% | Disposal eff. | **75.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 83% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 22.1 but the actual margin was 76 points. Geelong Cats led 24–33 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 76. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.60 (edge +20.9%) — model probability 83.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 22 · Predicted total: 163

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 70 · 79 | 83 · 72 |
| Goal Assists | 4.6/g | 5.4/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.9/g | 22/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9/g | 9.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.3% | 65.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 23 · 27 | 37 · 25 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 147/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.1/g | 18.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.7/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.7% | 69.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 16 | 6 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 104/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.2/g | 10.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.9% | 79.2% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.86/g (lg 3.59) +8% · Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.5) +2% · Forwards 4.44/g (lg 4.49) -1%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.53/g (lg 1.31) +17% · Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.5) +4% · Forwards 4.52/g (lg 4.49) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 20 in 9g | 21/10g (1·0·4·2·3·3·3·2·1·2) | 8/6g | 74/43g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.88 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 88' |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 13 in 8g | 16/10g (2·1·1·3·0·0·3·3·1·2) | 10/6g | 55/31g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 12 in 9g | 13/10g (1·0·3·0·1·2·2·1·1·2) | 11/9g | 66/82g | 76% | — | 🏉 29' 53' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 10 in 8g | 12/10g (2·0·1·1·2·0·1·3·0·2) | 3/14g | 36/112g | 68% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 8 in 9g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·3·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/5g | 31/33g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 7 in 9g | 9/10g (2·0·2·0·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 9/9g | 76/75g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 7 in 6g | 11/10g (1·1·1·1·3·1·1·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 17/13g | 77% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·2·2·0·0) | 2/1g | 5/5g | 52% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Jeremy Finlayson | KF | 4 in 4g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·3) | 12/8g | 52/36g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/28g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/23g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/19g | 54/131g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 10/65g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 11/51g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Burton | DEF | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 3/15g | 13/64g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/58g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dante Visentini | RUC | 0 in 1g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/23g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/11g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/37g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 29/68g | 28% | — | — |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 20 in 9g | 22/10g (2·4·1·1·1·4·2·4·1·2) | 40/17g | 46/19g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' 61' 68' 71' 73' 93' 95' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 17 in 9g | 18/10g (1·2·0·2·3·4·3·1·1·1) | 18/21g | 38/42g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 81% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 15 in 9g | 16/10g (1·2·2·1·0·2·2·2·2·2) | 1/2g | 3/4g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 84' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 10 in 9g | 10/10g (0·3·2·0·2·0·0·1·0·2) | 16/7g | 21/16g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 8 in 9g | 12/10g (4·3·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 9/5g | 9/7g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 90' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 8 in 6g | 15/10g (2·1·3·1·1·0·3·0·2·2) | 3/1g | 4/3g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 6/8g | 10/10g | 68% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/2g | 3/3g | 69% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/9g | 7/11g | 38% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/17g | 6/22g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/7g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 6/7g | 8/7g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 2 in 7g | 8/10g (1·3·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 8/10g | 12/13g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/13g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Duncan | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/19g | 8/18g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/13g | 8% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/12g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jed Bews | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 20 ✓ |
| Connor Rozee ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.82 | 70% | 32 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines | 26.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 28 ✗ |
| Jason Horne-Francis | 22.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 3 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.78 | 67% | 19 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 19.5 | $1.79 | 46% | 22 ✗ |
| Ryan Burton | 18.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 26 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 16.5 | $1.98 | 43% | 20 ✗ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 27.5 | $1.82 | 58% | 30 ✗ |
| Max Holmes | 23.5 | $1.80 | 55% | 22 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers | 19.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 27 ✗ |
| Lawson Humphries | 19.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 19 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie | 18.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 21 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 17.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 23 ✗ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 17.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 21 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)