# Western Bulldogs v Essendon — AFL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 127 – 36 Essendon

_Western Bulldogs put Essendon to the sword._

Half time: 68 – 9 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 87% / Essendon 13% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 17 May, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Marcus Bontempelli (11' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Rhylee West (15' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Lachlan McNeil (18'), Laitham Vandermeer (19'), Buku Khamis (24' ×3), Ed Richards (29' ×2), Tom Liberatore (31'), Aaron Naughton (59' Tipped ⚡), Sam Davidson (66'), Matthew Kennedy (71' Tipped ⚡), Bailey Williams (91'), Final quarter (27m 24s)Rhylee West (66') · Essendon: Xavier Duursma (50'), Nic Martin (64' Tipped ⚡), Archie Perkins (87'), Sam Durham (88'), Peter Wright (68' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 87% | Won |
| Essendon | 13% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 29.6 predicted → 91 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Western Bulldogs 127–36 Essendon in AFL Round 10 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Start with the one column Essendon actually won: hit-outs, 44 to 20. Their ruck division dominated the taps all day. It's just about the only thing on the stat sheet that went their way, and it tells you nothing about how this game was actually decided.

Everything downstream of that hit-out count fell apart. Winning the tap means nothing if you can't win the clearance that follows, and Essendon lost that battle 26 to 34. From there the Bulldogs simply had the ball more, 469 disposals to 385, and did more with it, hitting targets at 81.4% against Essendon's 75.6%. Essendon's forward half barely existed as a concept, with only 37 inside 50s to the Bulldogs' 61 and just 9 marks inside forward 50 to the Bulldogs' 21.

The scoreline reflects all of that and then some: Western Bulldogs 127, Essendon 36. This wasn't a game that got away from Essendon late. It was gone from the opening term. Quarter time read 45-3, half time 68-9, three-quarter time 103-28. The margin only grew from there, the Dogs adding another 24 points in the final quarter while Essendon managed 8.

Essendon's form line coming in had them at 3.97 wins from their last five against the Bulldogs' 2.14, so on paper they'd been winning more often. But their average margin sat at minus 13.5 to the Bulldogs' plus 6.0, and their average score of 82.1 against a concession rate of 93.0 painted a side that leaks points even in wins. Against a Bulldogs outfit rated stronger everywhere that matters, midfield 1076 to 978, forwards 1058 to 937, defence 1103 to 964, even ruck 1105 to 940 despite what happened on the day, there was never much room to move.

The Bulldogs backed up the ratings with the ledger that counts: 65 intercepts to 55, 44 tackles to 46 essentially a wash, but 125 contested possessions to 109 and 112 marks to 102. Cleaner hands, better structure, more use of the ball inside 50. Essendon's one avenue, second use from the ruck, simply never connected to anything.

Alphr's model had the Bulldogs at 87% to win off ratings of 1557 to 1481, and got the result right without much sweat. The margin was another story. Tipped at 29.6, expected to land in a 193-point shootout, the model undercooked both numbers badly. The actual margin blew out to 91, and the total finished at 163, some 30 points under the projection. Two out of three isn't a bad night's work, but the margin model has some explaining to do.

Nothing about the shape of this game was in doubt after quarter time. Essendon get the hit-out count and not much else to show for it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 45 | 23 | 35 | 24 | 127 |
| Essendon | 3 | 6 | 19 | 8 | 36 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| **469** | Disposals | 385 |
| **125** | Contested poss. | 109 |
| **34** | Clearances | 26 |
| **61** | Inside 50s | 37 |
| **112** | Marks | 102 |
| **21** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| 44 | Tackles | **46** |
| 20 | Hit-outs | **44** |
| **65** | Intercepts | 55 |
| **81.4%** | Disposal eff. | 75.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 87% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 29.6 but the actual margin was 91 points. The game's 163 points came in 30 points lower than the predicted 193. Western Bulldogs led 68–9 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 91. The model went 2/3 on this match. Western Bulldogs covered the 25.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.24 (edge +6.6%) — model probability 87.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -25.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 30 · Predicted total: 193

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 67 · 81 | 48 · 71 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 92/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.7/g | 13.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.2/g | 5.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.6% | 66.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 52 · 18 | 33 · 20 |
| Goal Assists | 5.9/g | 4.3/g |
| Disposals | 178/g | 152/g |
| Inside 50s | 31.4/g | 23.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.7/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.4% | 71.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 9 | 11 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 140/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.8/g | 10.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.1% | 79% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.04/g (lg 4.45) +13% · Defenders 1.48/g (lg 1.31) +13% · Key Forwards 3.83/g (lg 3.59) +7%
**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.39/g (lg 2.38) +0% · Key Forwards 3.3/g (lg 3.59) -8% · Forwards 4.05/g (lg 4.45) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 15 in 9g | 18/10g (3·3·0·1·1·3·3·1·3·0) | 9/7g | 107/68g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 14 in 9g | 14/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·3·3·2·2) | 3/2g | 30/32g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' 40' 78' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 10 in 9g | 10/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·2·2·0·3) | 4/6g | 26/38g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 9 in 8g | 9/10g (0·0·2·1·1·1·1·1·1·1) | 3/1g | 13/31g | 46% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·2·0·1·2·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 4/12g | 42% | — | — |
| – | James Harmes | MID | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·4·0·0) | 7/6g | 11/21g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 7 in 7g | 9/10g (1·0·1·3·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 4/5g | 18/32g | 42% | — | 🏉 19' |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 1/7g | 19/60g | 38% | — | 🏉 29' 43' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/10g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 6 in 4g | 13/10g (1·2·2·0·1·1·2·0·3·1) | 11/13g | 137/124g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 72' |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 5 in 9g | 5/9g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 44% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/2g | 4/17g | 24% | — | 🏉 24' 74' 77' |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0) | 2/7g | 39/63g | 40% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/18g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 41/113g | 24% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 48/80g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 19/73g | 28% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 9/11g | 38/95g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 4/8g | 34/36g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/21g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Arthur Jones | FWD | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Taylor Duryea | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 5/64g | 0% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 11 in 8g | 11/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·0·2·2·3) | 0/0g | 14/8g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 9 in 7g | 9/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·2·1·3·1) | 0/4g | 26/30g | 44% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 8 in 4g | 14/10g (0·2·2·2·0·0·6·2·0·0) | 15/7g | 73/35g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 8 in 8g | 9/10g (0·1·2·4·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/13g | 30/84g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 6 in 8g | 6/8g (1·2·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 63% | — | — |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 5 in 8g | 9/10g (3·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 26/28g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.72 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 3/22g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 4 in 4g | 12/10g (2·0·2·0·1·3·2·1·1·0) | 6/6g | 65/53g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 12/45g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/5g | 11/29g | 32% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 9/17g | 38% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/13g | 16/44g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jye Caldwell | MID | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 9/29g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Archer Day-Wicks | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 8/58g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/34g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 12/50g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/19g | 60/129g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/15g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore | 26.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 33 ✗ |
| Bailey Dale ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.86 | 65% | 49 ✗ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.84 | 70% | 27 ✗ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 24.5 | $1.92 | 49% | 24 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 23.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 31 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 69% | 21 ✓ |
| Ryley Sanders | 19.5 | $1.90 | 48% | 24 ✗ |
| Bailey Williams | 19.5 | $1.90 | 47% | 19 ✓ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 28.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 20 ✓ |
| Nic Martin | 24.5 | $1.93 | 56% | 25 ✗ |
| Jye Caldwell | 23.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 17 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 21.5 | $1.91 | 44% | 25 ✗ |
| Archie Roberts | 21.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 29 ✗ |
| Mason Redman | 21.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 27 ✗ |
| Sam Durham | 21.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 24 ✗ |
| Will Setterfield | 20.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 26 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)