AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 87% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 29.6 but the actual margin was 91 points. The game's 163 points came in 30 points lower than the predicted 193. Western Bulldogs led 68–9 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 91. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
87%
Essendon
13%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 87%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 76-point ELO rating advantage (1557 vs 1481). Recent form favours Essendon with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 29.6 points with a combined total of 193.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.24
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.6%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -25.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.6%
Total Points
Over 177.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W W L L L | 103.7 |
Essendon | W W W W L | 82.1 |
Avg Conceded
72.9
Western Bulldogs
93.0
Essendon
Avg Margin
6.0
Western Bulldogs
13.5
Essendon
Disposals
337.0
Western Bulldogs
343.2
Essendon
Inside 50s
44.2
Western Bulldogs
48.3
Essendon
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
87%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 30 points
Predicted total: 193 · Line: +29.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.23
Team Effectiveness
+0.56
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.