# Sydney Swans v Carlton — AFL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 78 – 62 Carlton

_Sydney Swans rally to glide past Carlton._

Half time: 33 – 40 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 67% / Carlton 33% · SCG · Fri, 16 May, 07:40 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Chad Warner (10' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Joel Hamling (16'), Will Hayward (28' Tipped ⚡), Isaac Heeney (42' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Justin McInerney (54'), Brodie Grundy (65'), Joel Amartey (67' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Braeden Campbell (83') · Carlton: Harry McKay (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Patrick Cripps (24'), Charlie Curnow (26' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Corey Durdin (38' Tipped ⚡), Sam Walsh (95')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 67% | Won |
| Carlton | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.4 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Sydney Swans 78–62 Carlton in AFL Round 10 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sydney Swans beat Carlton 78 to 62 at the SCG, a 16-point margin that makes it look like a comfortable evening. It wasn't. Carlton were up 48 to 43 at three-quarter time, which means Sydney Swans had to find a 35 to 14 last quarter from nowhere just to get to that final scoreline. That's not a team cruising, that's a team that was behind for three quarters and then flipped the whole match in twenty-odd minutes.

The arc tells the story better than the final number does. Carlton led 26 to 20 at quarter time, stretched it to 40 to 33 at the main break, and still had their nose in front 48 to 43 heading into the last term. Then Sydney Swans simply took over.

The hit-out count explains a lot of it. Sydney Swans won that battle 52 to 28, a gap nobody would have picked given Carlton went into the match with the stronger ruck rating, 1102 to 1029. First use of the ball out of the middle clearly mattered, because Sydney Swans also won clearances 45 to 36 and contested possession 158 to 147. Carlton's midfield was rated well above Sydney Swans's pre-match, 1071 to 925, but on the day it was Sydney Swans doing the damage at source.

Sydney Swans were also the tidier side with ball in hand, hitting targets at 68.5 per cent against Carlton's 65.4 per cent, and finished with more total disposals, 371 to 358. None of that is a landslide on its own, but stacked together over four quarters it's enough to swing a game that was still tight at the last change.

Carlton's method wasn't broken, it just wasn't quite enough. They marked the ball far better, 70 to 54, and were notably cleaner inside their forward line with 10 marks inside 50 to Sydney Swans's 6. They also edged inside 50 entries, 54 to 53, and intercepts, 75 to 73. On paper those are the numbers of a team that should be in the fight to the end, and for three quarters they were. Carlton came in with the better recent form too, averaging 101.1 points scored and conceding just 83, against Sydney Swans's 104.9 scored and 78.6 conceded. Every positional rating, midfield, forward, defence and ruck, had Carlton rated above Sydney Swans before a ball was bounced.

Which makes Sydney Swans's finish the more interesting part of this result.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 20 | 13 | 10 | 35 | 78 |
| Carlton | 26 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 62 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| **371** | Disposals | 358 |
| **158** | Contested poss. | 147 |
| **45** | Clearances | 36 |
| 53 | Inside 50s | **54** |
| 54 | Marks | **70** |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **10** |
| 67 | Tackles | **71** |
| **52** | Hit-outs | 28 |
| 73 | Intercepts | **75** |
| **68.5%** | Disposal eff. | 65.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 7.4 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. The game's 140 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 157. Sydney Swans trailed 33–40 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 78–62. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.63 (edge +5.8%) — model probability 67.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 162.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 7 · Predicted total: 157

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 63 · 75 | 61 · 64 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 89/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.3/g | 17/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.8/g | 7.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.3% | 66.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 31 · 22 | 28 · 20 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 128/g | 164/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.3/g | 24.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.6/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.1% | 67.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 13 | 18 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 108/g | 111/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.2/g | 13.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.4% | 75.1% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.51/g (lg 0.5) +2% · Forwards 4.53/g (lg 4.46) +2% · Defenders 1.27/g (lg 1.31) -3%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.5) +22% · Forwards 4.37/g (lg 4.46) -2% · Midfielders 2.24/g (lg 2.38) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 13 in 9g | 14/10g (1·1·1·1·4·1·2·0·1·2) | 17/11g | 90/74g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 9 in 9g | 10/10g (1·2·2·1·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 5/5g | 41/46g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 74' |
| – | Joel Amartey | KF | 9 in 5g | 17/10g (2·2·1·3·0·3·0·2·4·0) | 3/2g | 39/28g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' 93' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 8 in 9g | 9/10g (1·0·2·0·0·2·2·1·1·0) | 16/12g | 119/94g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 58% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' 89' |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·2·0·1) | 0/4g | 9/37g | 30% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·0·2·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 43% | — | 🏉 10' 74' |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 1/7g | 22/58g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Francis | KF | 4 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 5/16g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 48% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/5g | 9/18g | 26% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 21/53g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Peter Ladhams | RUC | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 2/9g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 17/60g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/15g | 3/22g | 12% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 18/112g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 1/5g | 4% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/6g | 16/43g | 30% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/18g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 20/80g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 6/112g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 16/29g | 30% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 18 in 8g | 19/10g (0·1·0·3·1·2·4·3·2·3) | 17/9g | 8/5g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 72' 82' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 9 in 5g | 11/10g (1·0·1·0·0·4·2·1·2·0) | 2/3g | 0/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 7 in 5g | 17/10g (3·2·1·1·3·1·0·3·0·3) | 8/7g | 5/5g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 63' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·1·3·1·0·2·0) | 9/13g | 4/8g | 50% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·3·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 2/1g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Will White | FWD | 6 in 6g | 6/6g (0·1·3·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.67 AI 58% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 16/59g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·2) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 4/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 2 in 8g | 7/10g (4·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 5/5g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hollands | FWD | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (2·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Binns | MID | 1 in 1g | 3/4g (0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 75% | — | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 10/9g | 3/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Boyd | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Marc Pittonet | RUC | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Roberts | 23.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 20 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 22.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 30 ✗ |
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 99% | 13 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.77 | 69% | 38 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd | 21.5 | $1.78 | 58% | 23 ✗ |
| Justin McInerney ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 24 ✗ |
| Nick Blakey | 19.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 13 ✓ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 19 ✗ |
| Riley Bice | 17.5 | $1.86 | 55% | 11 ✓ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | 27.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 27 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps | 26.5 | $1.78 | 64% | 26 ✓ |
| Sam Walsh | 25.5 | $1.85 | 49% | 19 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra | 23.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 34 ✗ |
| Adam Saad | 20.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 21 ✗ |
| Jaxon Binns | 18.5 | $1.78 | 53% | 14 ✓ |
| Elijah Hollands | 17.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 20 ✗ |
| Nick Haynes | 16.5 | $1.86 | 57% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)