AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 7.4 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. The game's 140 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 157. Sydney Swans trailed 33–40 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 78–62. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
67%
Carlton
33%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Carlton. Carlton are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Sydney Swans counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Carlton carry a 120-point ELO rating advantage (1598 vs 1478). Recent form favours Carlton with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 7.4 points with a combined total of 157.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.63
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.8%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans -7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.8%
Total Points
Under 162.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W L L L L | 104.9 |
Carlton | W W L L L | 101.1 |
Avg Conceded
78.6
Sydney Swans
83.0
Carlton
Avg Margin
17.7
Sydney Swans
24.8
Carlton
Disposals
344.6
Sydney Swans
377.5
Carlton
Inside 50s
53.9
Sydney Swans
52.5
Carlton
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1598 vs 1478), but the market favours Sydney Swans (@1.63).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 157 · Line: +7.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.15
Team Effectiveness
-0.15
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
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