# Collingwood v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 78 – 68 Adelaide Crows

_Collingwood hold off a gallant Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 43 – 38 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 58% / Adelaide Crows 42% · MCG · Sat, 17 May, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Will Hoskin-Elliott (13'), Tim Membrey (25' Tipped ⚡), Bobby Hill (28' Tipped ⚡), Steele Sidebottom (51'), Jack Crisp (52'), Beau McCreery (84'), Darcy Cameron (88'), Jamie Elliott (93' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (30m 46s)Will Hoskin-Elliott (65'), Brody Mihocek (76' Tipped ⚡) · Adelaide Crows: Izak Rankine (9' 1st), Josh Rachele (17' Tipped ⚡), Taylor Walker (22' Tipped ⚡), Darcy Fogarty (48' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jake Soligo (78' ×2), Jordan Dawson (83')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 58% | Won |
| Adelaide Crows | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.4 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Collingwood 78–68 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 10 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Collingwood by 7.4 points, with a combined total of 153 in the mix. The final numbers landed at Collingwood 78, Adelaide Crows 68, a ten-point margin off a combined score of 146. That's close enough to call the read sharp, not close enough to call it exact, and the win probability side of things, 58 per cent for Collingwood, held up fine.

Where the read really proved itself was the timeline. Collingwood led 27-20 at quarter time, 43-38 at half time, then pushed the margin out to sixteen points by three-quarter time, 63-47. That's the stretch that won it. Adelaide clawed back in the final term, outscoring Collingwood 21 to 15 in that last quarter, but a sixteen-point buffer at the MCG is a lot to chase down, and they ran out of time.

The ruck battle is where the pre-match numbers broke down hardest. Collingwood went in rated the stronger unit, 1059 to 968, but Adelaide won hit-outs 40 to 26. That's not a minor miss, that's a reversal. It fed everything else Adelaide did well: 39 clearances to 29, and 55 inside 50s to 47. On paper, that's a side that should have piled on scoreboard pressure all day.

Instead, Collingwood made them work for every entry. The intercept count tells that story on its own, 89 to 73, and it explains why Adelaide's extra forward pushes didn't turn into the score their volume suggested they should. Collingwood also won the tackle count, 59 to 53, and pulled down 13 marks inside 50 to Adelaide's 11, turning defensive stops into their own scoring chances.

Adelaide were tidier with the ball when they had it, 68.4 per cent disposal efficiency to Collingwood's 66.2 per cent. But they finished with fewer total disposals, 327 to Collingwood's 343, which cuts against their form line coming in, where Adelaide had actually been averaging slightly more of the ball than Collingwood over their last five games. Efficient use of it matters less when the other side is picking it off in your defensive fifty over and over.

Collingwood's forward rating going in, 1103 to 996, was the largest gap of any position group on the ladder of ratings, and it showed up in the result. The marks inside 50 count and the buffer they built by the last change both point to a forward line doing more with less territory than Adelaide's did. Adelaide's midfield and ruck dominance never converted into the scoreboard pressure those raw numbers usually promise.

Form lines pointed this way too. Collingwood arrived averaging 104.4 points scored against 67.7 conceded, a healthy split, while Adelaide's recent average margin sat at minus 9.2.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 27 | 16 | 20 | 15 | 78 |
| Adelaide Crows | 20 | 18 | 9 | 21 | 68 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| **343** | Disposals | 327 |
| **139** | Contested poss. | 137 |
| 29 | Clearances | **39** |
| 47 | Inside 50s | **55** |
| 69 | Marks | **72** |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **59** | Tackles | 53 |
| 26 | Hit-outs | **40** |
| **89** | Intercepts | 73 |
| 66.2% | Disposal eff. | **68.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 58% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Collingwood by 7.4 vs the actual margin of 10 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.50 (edge -8.5%) — model probability 58.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 167.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 7 · Predicted total: 153

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 95 · 56 | 103 · 66 |
| Goal Assists | 6/g | 5.8/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.8/g | 19.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.4/g | 11/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.7% | 70.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 16 · 30 | 30 · 28 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 5.4/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.3/g | 24.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.8% | 70.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 9 · 5 | 4 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 112/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.1/g | 9.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81.5% | 80% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.45/g (lg 1.31) +11% · Midfielders 2.47/g (lg 2.38) +4% · Forwards 4.33/g (lg 4.45) -3%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Forwards 4.07/g (lg 4.45) -9% · Defenders 1.19/g (lg 1.31) -9% · Key Forwards 3.24/g (lg 3.59) -10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 22 in 9g | 23/10g (1·2·2·1·0·3·2·5·1·6) | 17/12g | 197/124g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 93' |
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | 15 in 9g | 17/10g (2·1·2·2·0·3·2·1·1·3) | 5/6g | 49/42g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 15 in 7g | 20/10g (2·2·1·2·3·0·3·2·1·4) | 7/7g | 138/83g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 10 in 8g | 13/10g (1·2·1·4·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 10/8g | 46/21g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 5 in 9g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 4/5g | 25/49g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 38/51g | 40% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 14/131g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/13g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 4 in 6g | 8/10g (2·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 10/12g | 100/110g | 56% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 6/14g | 48/144g | 40% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 96/173g | 20% | — | 🏉 51' |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/14g | 5/21g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 2 in 9g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/6g | 37/60g | 36% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/20g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/4g | 80/82g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 30/77g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 1 in 9g | 3/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 25/49g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 8/13g | 80/175g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/22g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Edward Allan | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/66g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 56/157g | 14% | — | — |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 23 in 9g | 26/10g (3·3·3·3·5·1·1·3·1·3) | 3/4g | 4/4g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 84% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 21 in 8g | 23/10g (2·0·4·3·2·3·4·0·2·3) | 10/9g | 13/8g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' 55' 80' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 17 in 9g | 19/10g (2·1·1·4·4·2·2·2·1·0) | 23/13g | 45/24g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 16 in 9g | 17/10g (1·1·4·2·1·3·1·0·2·2) | 0/9g | 7/10g | 84% | — | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 12 in 9g | 14/10g (2·2·2·0·0·2·1·1·2·2) | 8/7g | 8/6g | 84% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 11 in 6g | 18/10g (1·3·2·1·2·4·0·1·2·2) | 3/4g | 7/5g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 7/11g | 61/91g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/5g | 34% | — | 🏉 78' 73' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 3/10g | 4/12g | 28% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/10g | 20% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 2 in 8g | 5/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 3/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/22g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 29.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 28 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos | 26.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 29 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 22 ✓ |
| Scott Pendlebury ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 22 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 20.5 | $1.87 | 50% | 16 ✓ |
| Dan Houston | 20.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 81% | 19 ✗ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | 24.5 | $1.82 | 60% | 27 ✗ |
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | $1.88 | 46% | 27 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo | 21.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 23 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.80 | 70% | 26 ✗ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 22 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell | 18.5 | $1.89 | 53% | 15 ✓ |
| Mitchell Hinge | 18.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 21 ✗ |
| Wayne Milera | 17.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 17 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)