Win Probability
Full TimeScoring Breakdown
Ref Watch
by AlphrFC had penalties evenly distributed (10-10). Clean officiating with no material impact on the result.
AI Game Review
Hull FC defied the model's 60% prediction for Castleford Tigers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.3 but the actual margin was 40 points. The game's 60 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 45. Hull FC led 6–20 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 40. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The over 40.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
60%
Hull FC
40%
AI Match Overview
Castleford Tigers hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Hull FC are far from out of this at 40%. Hull FC are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control, but Castleford Tigers counter with Backline Quality and H2H History which tips the scales. Hull FC carry a 80-point ELO rating advantage (1456 vs 1377).
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Castleford Tigers to Win @1.66
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Hull FC -0.3 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Hull FC Draw @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R4L R5L R6W R7L R8W older → newer | 14.8 |
Hull FC | R4L R5W R6W R7L R8L | 15.6 |
Avg Conceded
34.0
Castleford Tigers
19.6
Hull FC
Avg Margin
-19.2
Castleford Tigers
-4.0
Hull FC
Run Metres
1079
Castleford Tigers
1160
Hull FC
Clean Breaks
4.4
Castleford Tigers
2.8
Hull FC
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hull FC hold the ELO advantage (1456 vs 1377), but the market favours Castleford Tigers (@1.66).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -0.3