# Castleford Tigers v Hull FC — Super League Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 10 – 50 Hull FC

_Hull FC run riot over Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 6 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 60% / Hull FC 40% · The OneBore Stadium · Sat, 25 Apr, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Krystian Mapapalangi (38'), Krystian Mapapalangi (66') · Hull FC: Jake Arthur (5' 1st), Tom Briscoe (12'), Davy Litten (20'), Connor Bailey (31'), Lewis Martin (43'), Davy Litten (51'), Zak Hardaker (56'), Cade Cust (70'), Yusuf Aydin (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | 60% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 40% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.3 predicted → 40 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Castleford Tigers 10–50 Hull FC in Super League Round 9 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC overran Castleford Tigers 50–10 at The OneBore Stadium. Leading 20–6 at half-time, Hull FC pulled clear late.

Jake Arthur opened the scoring; Castleford Tigers crossed through Krystian Mapapalangi (2); Hull FC scored through Jake Arthur, Tom Briscoe, Davy Litten (2), Connor Bailey, Lewis Martin, Zak Hardaker, Cade Cust and Yusuf Aydin.

Hull FC were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 6 times to 11. Hull FC were sharper in attack, breaking the line 8 times to 2 and busting 33 tackles.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 806 | Run metres | **1,394** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 12 | Tackle busts | **33** |
| 3 | Offloads | **15** |
| 11 | Errors | **6** |
| 10 | Penalties conceded | 10 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 9 |
| 1/2 | Goals | 7/10 |
| 10 | Penalties Conceded | 10 |
| 11 | Errors | 6 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 60% prediction for Castleford Tigers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.3 but the actual margin was 40 points. The game's 60 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 45. Hull FC led 6–20 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 40. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (10/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 10 · Hull FC 10.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Castleford Tigers to win — model probability 60.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 60.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Castleford Tigers 1-12 — model probability 60.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 0 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Castleford Tigers are the call at 60%, but Hull FC stay live at 40%. The ratings say otherwise: Hull FC sit 80 ELO points clear, 1456 to 1377, so the model is backing Castleford Tigers against the ratings gap.

On paper Hull FC shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Castleford Tigers, which says H2H History carry the most weight. Lean Castleford Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 14.8pts | Avg Score | 15.6pts |
| 34.0pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| -19.2pts | Avg Margin | -4.0pts |
| 1085.0m | Run Metres | 1166.8m |
| 4.4 | Clean Breaks | 2.8 |
| 313.6 | Tackles | 314.4 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R4 L · R5 L · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W | 14.8 |
| Hull FC | R4 L · R5 W · R6 W · R7 L · R8 L | 15.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Castleford Tigers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Hull FC | 14 – 18 | Castleford Tigers | Hull FC 56% ✗ |
| 2025 | R14 | Hull FC | 14 – 22 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R6 | Castleford Tigers | 14 – 24 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 30 – 22 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | R24 | Hull FC | 20 – 39 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.88 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 3rd there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (0.88 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 10th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.5/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 10th) | 0.88/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.88/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.75/g (def 7th) | 1.13/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.63/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.13/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.5/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 5 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 77m/g | 91m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.4/g | 1.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 89.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 22 | 13 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 393m/g | 495m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.9/g | 15.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.1% | 82.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 8 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 284m/g | 337m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.6% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on Hull FC** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45% · Fullbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.25) +36% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.2) +30%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.05) +200% · Fullbacks 0.4/g (lg 0.25) +60% · Wingers 1.45/g (lg 0.96) +51%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jenson Windley | FB | 0 in 3g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Mikaele Ravalawa | WG | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | — | — |
| 3 | Darnell Mcintosh | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 29% | — | 🏉 38' 66' |
| 5 | Balami Qareqare | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 11% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Weaver | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Renouf Atoni | PR | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jordan Lane | HK | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 11 | George Hirst | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Alexander Mellor | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Brock Greacen | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Aiden Doolan | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 10/22g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 1/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 20' 51' |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 4 in 8g | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 54% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Jakob Arthur | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Ligi Sao | PR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Connor Bailey | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 12 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 13 | James Bell | LK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Cade Cust | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 15 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Yusuf Aydin | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 17 | Jeremiah Matautia | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Hull FC hold the ELO advantage (1456 vs 1377), but the market favours Castleford Tigers (@1.66). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1377 · Hull FC 1456 · ELO difference: 80 in favour of Hull FC

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull FC |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull FC |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull FC |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Castleford Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Castleford Tigers favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)