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Super League | Round 9

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AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • FRIDAY 24 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

464
CAT

Catalans Dragons

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 84%

AI Win Probability

84%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

84%

Catalans Dragons

16%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 84%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leeds Rhinos carry a 167-point ELO rating advantage (1681 vs 1514). The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 15.5 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.19

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos +15.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R4W
R5L
R6W
R7W
R8W

older → newer

28.8
Catalans Dragons
R4W
R5W
R6L
R7W
R8W
27.8

Avg Conceded

16.8

Leeds Rhinos

21.6

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

12.0

Leeds Rhinos

6.2

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

1370

Leeds Rhinos

1269

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

5.4

Leeds Rhinos

5.0

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 3-2
Sep 2025LEE 8 - 16 CAT
Mar 2025LEE 0 - 11 CAT
Aug 2024LEE 18 - 6 CAT
May 2024LEE 0 - 26 CAT
Mar 2024LEE 18 - 10 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1681Overall1514
CAT
ELO difference: +167 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

829Forwards773
Best: 1080LEE +56Best: 1004
1099Backs1096
Best: 1231EvenBest: 1296
1400Halves1260
Best: 1400LEE +140Best: 1260
762Hooker758
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
CAT
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
28.8pts
Avg Score
27.8pts
16.8pts
Avg Conceded
21.6pts
12.0pts
Avg Margin
6.2pts
1369.8m
Run Metres
1269.2m
5.4
Clean Breaks
5.0
294.6
Tackles
315.6
8.4
Errors
8.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

84%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 16 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +15.5

3/4 match predictions correct