# Leeds Rhinos v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 46 – 4 Catalans Dragons

_Leeds Rhinos trample Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 16 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 84% / Catalans Dragons 16% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sat, 25 Apr, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Ash Handley (1' 1st), Maika Sivo (18'), Ryan Hall (23'), Danny Levi (49'), Cooper Jenkins (52'), Brodie Croft (54'), Ryan Hall (65'), James McDonnell (77') · Catalans Dragons: Leo Darrelatour (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 84% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 16% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 15.5 predicted → 42 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 46–4 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 9 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leeds Rhinos put 46 on Catalans Dragons at AMT Headingley Stadium, winning 46-4. That scoreline actually flatters Catalans in one sense and undersells Leeds in another, because the gap in errors was just one, 12 to 11. Two sides that close with the ball don't usually finish 42 points apart. What separated them was everything Leeds did once they had it.

Ash Handley got Leeds moving inside the first minute, and by the 23rd they were 16-0 up after tries to Handley, Maika Sivo and Ryan Hall. That was the half-time score too, 16-0, a lead built on line breaks. Leeds had nine of them for the match against Catalans' two, and busted 39 tackles to 18. That's the number that explains the scoreline better than any of the tries: Leeds kept finding gaps, and Catalans kept missing them.

The second half is where it turned from a lead into a rout. Danny Levi, Cooper Jenkins and Brodie Croft all crossed inside an eight-minute stretch from the 49th to the 54th, and Jake Connor didn't miss a conversion all night. By the time Ryan Hall grabbed his second in the 65th, it was 40-0. Leo Darrelatour got Catalans on the board in the 71st, a consolation try that briefly made the scoreboard look less brutal, before James McDonnell added one more for Leeds in the 77th to round it out at 46-4.

Run metres tell the same story as everything else: 1,575 to 784. Leeds nearly doubled Catalans up just carrying the ball forward, which is hard to do without go-forward from the pack and quick hands out the back. The pre-match ratings had Leeds ahead in every position group, forwards 829 to 773, halves 1400 to 1260, and that gap in the spine showed up exactly where you'd expect: in how often Leeds found space through the middle and out wide.

Discipline mattered too. Leeds gave away five penalties, Catalans eight, and when you're already down 16-0 and handing over extra sets, the game gets away from you fast. Catalans came into this on a decent run of form, four wins from five, and their form numbers weren't miles off Leeds' on paper, an average concession of 21.6 points against Leeds' 16.8. None of that showed up on the night.

Offloads told a similar tale: 17 for Leeds against 7 for Catalans, which is another way of saying Leeds kept the ball alive and Catalans kept it dead in the tackle. Add that to the tackle-bust count and the line breaks, and the 42-point margin starts to look less like an aberration and more like the natural result of one side doing the small things better for most of the night.

Alphr's model had Leeds at 84% to win, which was never in doubt by the finish. The margin was the miss: 15.5 points predicted, 42 delivered.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,575** | Run metres | 784 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **39** | Tackle busts | 18 |
| **17** | Offloads | 7 |
| 12 | Errors | **11** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 1 |
| 7/9 | Goals | 0/1 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 12 | Errors | 11 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 15.5 but the actual margin was 42 points. Leeds Rhinos led 16–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 42. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (19/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 5 · Catalans Dragons 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 84.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 16 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 84% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 167 ELO points clear, 1681 to 1514.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 15.5, with the two sides combining for about 41. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 28.8pts | Avg Score | 27.8pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Margin | 6.2pts |
| 1377.4m | Run Metres | 1275.8m |
| 5.4 | Clean Breaks | 5.0 |
| 294.2 | Tackles | 315.6 |
| 8.4 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R4 W · R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W | 28.8 |
| Catalans Dragons | R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W | 27.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Catalans Dragons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Catalans Dragons | 6 – 28 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 67% ✓ |
| 2025 | R26 | Leeds Rhinos | 8 – 16 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | Catalans Dragons | 11 – 0 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R23 | Leeds Rhinos | 18 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R11 | Catalans Dragons | 26 – 0 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 8th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 7th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Dodd, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.5/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.13/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.63/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 7th) | 1.75/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.88/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 2.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 2 | 6 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 144m/g | 116m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.7% | 89.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 12 | 18 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 337m/g | 523m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11/g | 15.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.7% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 4 | 5 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 342m/g | 245m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.8/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 91.7% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.18) +33% · Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.05) +20%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.05) +60% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.18) -11% · Fullbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.25) -12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/25g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 13 in 7g | 13/7g (2·4·3·0·3·0·1) | 0/0g | 8/3g | 71% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 3 | Jack Bird | CE | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 60% | — | — |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 1' |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 11/18g | 7/18g | 36% | — | 🏉 23' 65' |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 5/17g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 10 in 7g | 11/10g (1·0·0·1·1·2·1·1·0·4) | 2/9g | 10/26g | 44% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/22g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Levi | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/3g | 7% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/17g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 6/28g | 26% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/15g | 3/15g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/14g | 1/29g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/16g | 16% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 16 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/14g | 4/22g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Cam Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 3 in 4g | 8/10g (0·1·0·3·0·1·1·0·0·2) | 6/13g | 0/1g | 46% | — | — |
| 3 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | CE | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Leo Darrelatour | WG | 5 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 6 | Toby Sexton | 5/8 | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 7 | Lewis Dodd | HB | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3) | 3/8g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 13 | Julian Bousquet | LK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Allen | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1681 · Catalans Dragons 1514 · ELO difference: 167 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 84%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 16 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)