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Super League | Round 9

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BARTERCARD ODSAL STADIUM • SATURDAY 25 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
BRD

Bradford Bulls

1248
HKR

Hull KR

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 60%

AI Win Probability

60%Hull KRFavourite

Bradford Bulls

40%

Hull KR

60%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Bradford Bulls are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Hull KR carry a 227-point ELO rating advantage (1655 vs 1427). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Bradford Bulls. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 10.1 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.67

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -10.1 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Bradford Bulls
R4L
R5W
R6L
R7L
R8L

older → newer

20.0
Hull KR
R4W
R5L
R6W
R7W
R8W
34.8

Avg Conceded

31.2

Bradford Bulls

9.6

Hull KR

Avg Margin

-11.2

Bradford Bulls

25.2

Hull KR

Run Metres

1063

Bradford Bulls

1418

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

3.6

Bradford Bulls

6.4

Hull KR

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

BRD
1427Overall1655
HKR
ELO difference: -227 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

802Forwards856
Best: 983HKR +54Best: 1211
627Backs1006
Best: 645HKR +379Best: 1173
986Halves1208
Best: 986HKR +222Best: 1208
600Hooker1165
HKR +565

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

BRD
Stat
HKR
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
20.0pts
Avg Score
34.8pts
31.2pts
Avg Conceded
9.6pts
-11.2pts
Avg Margin
25.2pts
1062.8m
Run Metres
1418.0m
3.6
Clean Breaks
6.4
345.2
Tackles
309.6
8.2
Errors
11.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Bulls
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

60%

Hull KR predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: -10.1

3/4 match predictions correct