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Super League | Round 9

alphr.com.au

HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • FRIDAY 24 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

236
WIG

Wigan Warriors

✅ Model correct — backed Warrington Wolves at 66%

AI Win Probability

66%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Warrington Wolves

66%

Wigan Warriors

34%

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wigan Warriors. The model sees Warrington Wolves ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. Wigan Warriors carry a 82-point ELO rating advantage (1602 vs 1520). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wigan Warriors. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 12.8 points with a combined total of 52.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warrington Wolves to Win @1.51

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves +12.8 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R4W
R5W
R6L
R7W
R8L

older → newer

39.2
Wigan Warriors
R4W
R5W
R6L
R7L
R8L
22.6

Avg Conceded

21.2

Warrington Wolves

26.0

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

18.0

Warrington Wolves

-3.4

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

1358

Warrington Wolves

1196

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

7.8

Warrington Wolves

4.6

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 4-1
Aug 2025WAR 18 - 24 WIG
May 2025WAR 20 - 22 WIG
Mar 2025WAR 24 - 48 WIG
Feb 2024WAR 18 - 19 WIG
Jul 2024WAR 40 - 4 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Wigan Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1602 vs 1520), but the market favours Warrington Wolves (@1.51).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1520Overall1602
WIG
ELO difference: -82 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

839Forwards871
Best: 1041WIG +32Best: 1153
1052Backs720
Best: 1197WAR +332Best: 800
845Halves682
Best: 845WAR +163Best: 682
659Hooker678
WIG +19

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
WIG
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
39.2pts
Avg Score
22.6pts
21.2pts
Avg Conceded
26.0pts
18.0pts
Avg Margin
-3.4pts
1357.6m
Run Metres
1196.2m
7.8
Clean Breaks
4.6
285.6
Tackles
326.0
6.6
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Wolves
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

66%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 13 points

Predicted total: 52 · Line: +12.8

2/4 match predictions correct