# Warrington Wolves v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 23 – 6 Wigan Warriors

_Warrington Wolves run down Wigan Warriors._

Half time: 8 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 66% / Wigan Warriors 34% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sat, 25 Apr, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Josh Thewlis (34' 1st), Albert Hopoate (53'), Josh Thewlis (66' 1st), Albert Hopoate (74') · Wigan Warriors: Zach Eckersley (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 66% | Won |
| Wigan Warriors | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.8 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Warrington Wolves 23–6 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 9 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten penalties to three. That ledger cost Wigan Warriors a 23-6 defeat to Warrington Wolves at Halliwell Jones Stadium.

Discipline like that doesn't turn up on a stat sheet as points, not directly, but it hands the other side field position and shots at goal they shouldn't have to earn. Warrington took the first one, Marc Sneyd slotting a penalty goal in the 23rd minute, and from there the home side never trailed. Josh Thewlis crossed in the 34th, Sneyd added the conversion, and Warrington went to the break 8-0 up.

It got away from Wigan after the restart. Albert Hopoate crossed in the 53rd to make it 12-0, and while Zach Eckersley pulled one back for Wigan nine minutes later, converted by Adam Keighran to bring it to 12-6, that was as close as the visitors got. Thewlis grabbed his second in the 66th, Hopoate his second in the 74th, and Warrington closed it out 23-6. Two tries apiece from Thewlis and Hopoate did the damage. Eckersley's was the only reply Wigan could manage all night.

The run metres were dead even, 1,290 to 1,288, so it's not as if Wigan were bullied up front. Their forward pack rating (871) had the edge over Warrington's (839) coming in, and the ground they made backs that up. But footy isn't just about carrying the ball forward, it's about what you do with it once you're there, and that's where this one was decided. Wigan coughed the ball up 13 times to Warrington's 7, and offloaded more freely too, 12 to 6, without the discipline to back the ambition up. Loose footy against a backline rated as strongly as Warrington's, 1052 to Wigan's 720, was always going to get punished eventually.

The halves matchup told a similar story. Warrington's pairing rated at 845 against Wigan's 682, a gap that showed up in field position more than in any single passage of play. Hookers were close, 678 to 659 in Wigan's favour, but it wasn't enough to offset what was happening everywhere else on the park.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **1,290** | Run metres | 1,288 |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| **32** | Tackle busts | 29 |
| 6 | Offloads | **12** |
| **7** | Errors | 13 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 10 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 3/5 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 1 | Field Goals | 0 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 10 |
| 7 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 66% probability. The predicted margin of 12.8 was reasonable against the actual 17-point result. The game's 29 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 52. Warrington Wolves led 8–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 17. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (41/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 3 · Wigan Warriors 10.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 66.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 13-24 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 13 · Predicted total: 52

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 66% to see off Wigan Warriors. The ratings say otherwise: Wigan Warriors sit 82 ELO points clear, 1602 to 1520, so the model is backing Warrington Wolves against the ratings gap. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Wigan Warriors.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 12.8, with the two sides combining for about 52. Warrington Wolves to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 39.2pts | Avg Score | 22.6pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Margin | -3.4pts |
| 1365.0m | Run Metres | 1203.4m |
| 7.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.6 |
| 285.6 | Tackles | 326.0 |
| 6.6 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 L | 39.2 |
| Wigan Warriors | R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L | 22.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Wigan Warriors | 30 – 18 | Warrington Wolves | Wigan Warriors 54% ✓ |
| 2025 | R21 | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 24 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | Wigan Warriors | 22 – 20 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Wigan Warriors | 48 – 24 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 19 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (3.86 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 12th there (2.13 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 12th there (1.57 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.29/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.43/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.75/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.63/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 3.86/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.25/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.13/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.86/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 12th (weak)) | 2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 6 | 8 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 2.6/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 206m/g | 98m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.1% | 77.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 16 | 26 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 422m/g | 543m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.7/g | 13.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 80.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 2 | 3 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 295m/g | 442m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.7% | 92.7% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · 2nd Rows 0.2/g (lg 0.27) -26% · Halfbacks 0.11/g (lg 0.18) -39%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.18) +61% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Wingers 0.9/g (lg 0.96) -6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cai Taylor-Wray | FB | 2 in 3g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 25% | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 5 in 7g | 8/10g (1·0·2·1·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 4/9g | 26/52g | 50% | — | 🏉 34' 66' |
| 3 | Albert Hopoate | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 43% | — | 🏉 53' 74' |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/14g | 21/43g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 3/16g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Ewan Irwin | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 9/58g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thomas | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/12g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 3/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 16/66g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 2/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/19g | 3/53g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·4·0·0) | 2/15g | 5/11g | 18% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 5 in 5g | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·2·2·1·0) | 3/6g | 0/1g | 56% | — | — |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 9 in 8g | 10/10g (0·1·2·1·1·2·0·1·1·1) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 56% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 3 | Liam Farrell | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/22g | 2/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 4/9g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 19/16g | 5/5g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Jack Farrimond | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 7/10g (0·1·2·2·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 43% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Keighran | HB | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Joseph Havard | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Oliver Partington | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Kian Mcdermott | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Samuel Eseh | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Taylor Kerr | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Wigan Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1602 vs 1520), but the market favours Warrington Wolves (@1.51). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1520 · Wigan Warriors 1602 · ELO difference: 82 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 52 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)